CT-05: Rep. Esty retiring after top aide's abuse allegations

[Ye We Can]

*If* he gets in, Lean D --> Tilt R

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/980915110159011847

They’ve recruited almost every cycle. His reasoning has been he doesn’t want to spend time away from his wife and child. I believe his son is now 5.

That is true. He doesn’t seem like he’s partisan enough to become a nigh-absentee father just to give his party the chance to pickup a seat.

The story's compelling and all, but what does he have other than that?

[Gass3268]

Likely D out of precaution. Really doesn't matter who the Republicans put up with this environment.

[choclatechip45]

*If* he gets in, Lean D --> Tilt R

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/980915110159011847

They’ve recruited almost every cycle. His reasoning has been he doesn’t want to spend time away from his wife and child. I believe his son is now 5.

That is true. He doesn’t seem like he’s partisan enough to become a nigh-absentee father just to give his party the chance to pickup a seat.

Yeah especially after everything he has been through. I wonder if Stewart will switch. I always thought if she lost the governors race/primary she would run for this seat.

[Free Bird]

*If* he gets in, Lean D --> Tilt R

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/980915110159011847

They’ve recruited almost every cycle. His reasoning has been he doesn’t want to spend time away from his wife and child. I believe his son is now 5.

That is true. He doesn’t seem like he’s partisan enough to become a nigh-absentee father just to give his party the chance to pickup a seat.

Yeah especially after everything he has been through. I wonder if Stewart will switch. I always thought if she lost the governors race/primary she would run for this seat.

When’s the filing deadline? Sounds like a possibility if she doesn’t make the primary if it’s after the convention.

[choclatechip45]

*If* he gets in, Lean D --> Tilt R

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/980915110159011847

They’ve recruited almost every cycle. His reasoning has been he doesn’t want to spend time away from his wife and child. I believe his son is now 5.

That is true. He doesn’t seem like he’s partisan enough to become a nigh-absentee father just to give his party the chance to pickup a seat.

Yeah especially after everything he has been through. I wonder if Stewart will switch. I always thought if she lost the governors race/primary she would run for this seat.

When’s the filing deadline? Sounds like a possibility if she doesn’t make the primary if it’s after the convention.

June 12th so after the convention. I don’t think she would make this race that competitive .

[Figueira]

I don't see why Stewart would throw away her statewide career trying to become a national politician. Maybe she would if it was expected to be a Republican year.

Who might run on the Democratic side?

[choclatechip45]

I don't see why Stewart would throw away her statewide career trying to become a national politician. Maybe she would if it was expected to be a Republican year.

Who might run on the Democratic side?

Democratic bench in this district is kind of weak. I wonder if Chris Donovan will try he is very popular among the grassroots. Esty beat him in the 2012 primary.

[KingSweden]

*If* he gets in, Lean D --> Tilt R

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/980915110159011847

He’d be formidable, but probably not *that* formidable

[Blair]

Yeah for every 1 voter that there story flips, or inspires to vote R, there will be at least 2-3 people voting on the basis of Trump/healthcare etc.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Safe D

[choclatechip45]

Looks like State Rep Michelle Cook might run. Never heard of her before.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/local/article/Congresswoman-Esty-won-t-seek-re-election-12798866.php

[Jeppe]

http://www.housedems.ct.gov/Cook/Biography

I like Cook. One good thing coming out of this is that Etsy’s huge campaign warchest can go towards other Emily’s List candidates facing competitive primaries and general elections.

[LimoLiberal]

Yeah for every 1 voter that there story flips, or inspires to vote R, there will be at least 2-3 people voting on the basis of Trump/healthcare etc.

LMAO dude. I do think there will be a democratic wave in 2018, but this sort of thinking did not pan out well in 2018...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/chuck-schumer-democrats-will-lose-blue-collar-whites-gain-suburbs/

[Strudelcutie4427]

Tilt D for now

[Holmes]

Really hard to see an open seat flip that voted Clinton by 4 points flip to Republicans in a Trump midterm. Especially in New England. National Republicans should ignore.

[The Other Castro]

This has roughly the same odds as NV-04 flipping, which is to say not very good.

[choclatechip45]

Mary Glassman declares she is running.
https://ctmirror.org/2018/04/02/mary-glassman-jumps-suddenly-open-5th-cd-race/

[DemocraticKing]

Strong Likely- Safe D, unless Peit gets in, which would make it a pure... likely D. This seat is NOT flipping.

"Rep. William A. Petit, R-Southington, might run, but he said through a spokesman Monday night he was disinclined." So no.

Also, Glassman is in, Cook considering, Bartolomeo and Linehan are out.

"Rep. Michelle Cook, D-Torrington, said she was weighing a run, making calls to explore the feasibility of entering what will be an unusual sprint of a campaign: The nominating conventions are next month.

“At this point, it’s been a 24-hour whirlwind of conversations,” Cook said.

Former state Sen. Dante Bartolomeo, D-Meriden, said she was flattered to be approached as a potential candidate, but she is not going to run. Rep. Liz Linehan, a Democrat who lives in Esty’s hometown of Cheshire, said the same. Her phone has been ringing since Thursday, she said, “but I’m not interested.” "

https://ctmirror.org/2018/04/02/mary-glassman-jumps-suddenly-open-5th-cd-race/

[Young Conservative]

I don't think people here realize the strength of Petit. This is a guy who defeated a nearly 20 year democratic incumbent, who won by almost 20 points in 2014. Not only did he beat her, he swamped her by over 20 points in a presidential election year.


That said, he won't run.

[Free Bird]

I don't think people here realize the strength of Petit. This is a guy who defeated a nearly 20 year democratic incumbent, who won by almost 20 points in 2014. Not only did he beat her, he swamped her by over 20 points in a presidential election year.


That said, he won't run.

Oh they do, they're just having crazy cognitive dissonance because this, in their minds, is supposed to be a blanket blue year without any regard for individual candiates. Then again, every year is going to be a blue year if Atlas is to be believed.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't think people here realize the strength of Petit. This is a guy who defeated a nearly 20 year democratic incumbent, who won by almost 20 points in 2014. Not only did he beat her, he swamped her by over 20 points in a presidential election year.


That said, he won't run.

Oh they do, they're just having crazy cognitive dissonance because this, in their minds, is supposed to be a blanket blue year without any regard for individual candiates. Then again, every year is going to be a blue year if Atlas is to be believed.

Democrats picked up a month ago in Connecticut a seat that was Republican since Watergate.
The president's party hasn't picked up in the midterms an open seat that he lost in the previous election since 1990.
But yeah, keep dreaming that everything is fine.

[choclatechip45]

I don't think people here realize the strength of Petit. This is a guy who defeated a nearly 20 year democratic incumbent, who won by almost 20 points in 2014. Not only did he beat her, he swamped her by over 20 points in a presidential election year.


That said, he won't run.

As someone who lives in CT I think he could win I just don’t think he will run like I said I earlier in the thread due to his comments in the past.

[smoltchanov]

Theoretically - the most republican district in the state and their best chance. Roraback almost won it in 2012, and would, probably win if it was 2010 or 2014 instead. But this year it will be not easy for any Republican candidate (and so far i don't see a "heavyweight" among them)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Who's more progressive between Glassman and Cook? CT avatars, let me know.

[Free Bird]

Theoretically - the most republican district in the state and their best chance. Roraback almost won it in 2012, and would, probably win if it was 2010 or 2014 instead. But this year it will be not easy for any Republican candidate (and so far i don't see a "heavyweight" among them)

Petit would be pretty strong. As an aside, the 5th I would say is actually tied for the most Republican district with the 2nd. It's just that Courtney is super popular. From experience, even people who vote straight Republican vote for Courtney under some strange impression that he's a Blue Dog.