State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

Trump percentages are not everything. This districts had extremely strong Democratic tradition, electing Democrats ONLY for state Senate for almost 50 years before now. Essentially the same - with state House and many local offices. That's why this loss is still a sensitive blow for local Democrats at least. For me - it's neither an achievement, nor source of panic. It's only a sign, that Democratic bleeding in rural areas (especially - in Appalachia) - continues. Let's wait until early April, and state Senate election in suburban Pennsylvania. AFTER that - first preliminary conclusions can be made..

[Brittain33]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

Trump percentages are not everything. This districts had extremely strong Democratic tradition, electing Democrats ONLY for state Senate for almost 50 years before now. Essentially the same - with state House and many local offices. That's why this loss is still a sensitive blow for local Democrats at least. For me - it's neither an achievement, nor source of panic. It's only a sign, that Democratic bleeding in rural areas (especially - in Appalachia) - continues. Let's wait until early April, and state Senate election in suburban Pennsylvania. AFTER that - first preliminary conclusions can be made..

On behalf of all Democrats anywhere, I don’t care about us losing a Trump 80% district. That bled out several years ago.

[smoltchanov]

Based off Lawrence county, looks like another devastating loss for Democrats.

You're absolutely insane if you think narrowly losing a district that was 80-17 Trump in 2016 is a devastating loss for Democrats.

Trump percentages are not everything. This districts had extremely strong Democratic tradition, electing Democrats ONLY for state Senate for almost 50 years before now. Essentially the same - with state House and many local offices. That's why this loss is still a sensitive blow for local Democrats at least. For me - it's neither an achievement, nor source of panic. It's only a sign, that Democratic bleeding in rural areas (especially - in Appalachia) - continues. Let's wait until early April, and state Senate election in suburban Pennsylvania. AFTER that - first preliminary conclusions can be made..

On behalf of all Democrats anywhere, I don’t care about us losing a Trump 80% district. That bled out several years ago.

And still elected Democrats. Until now....

Well, essentially Democrats conduct "ignore rural areas, because they (people, living there) are reactionary and racist". And count on simple fact, that 51% (people, living in suburbs) is substantially more, then 17% (people, living in rural areas). Yes, it's so. The question is - wheter a process of suburbs moving to Democrats, which became especially clear with Trump election, is a long term, or it's caused in large part by Trump's personality? Well to do subirbs never liked too much high taxes on people like them, which are quite possible with continuing "progressivization" of Democratic party...

P.S. (An example) Be prepared to rather big losses in Lousiana's state legislative elections this year with your approach. Democrats still hold substalntial number of heavily Trump districts (at least 1 in state Senate and 3 in state House are above 70% Trump, with one being 88% Trump, in addition to 65+% Trump districts...). While nimber of Republican held district NOT supporting (or barely supporting) Trump is minimal.....

[Zaybay]

I really feel that this should be mentioned, but the loss was extremely likely due to the fact the longtime incumbent in the seat retired.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I really feel that this should be mentioned, but the loss was extremely likely due to the fact the longtime incumbent in the seat retired.

The incumbent was elected to the county's top office pretty handily. From what I've been told, the Democrats swept most of the county offices in that area in November. But in Floyd County, an independent won, and the Republican came in a very distant third.

[smoltchanov]

You don’t see Republicans lamenting about why they don’t win NYC, an 80% Clinton jurisdiction. I don’t know why some Dems are flipping the  out at losing a similar 80% Trump locale then

I am not Dem... There is a difference though. Republicans are non-competitive in NYC since 2000 at least (Bloomberg being sole exception, and very special one), while Kentucky's SD-31 gave 100% (unopposed) to Democratic candidate as recently as 2016. Feel the difference...

[DINGO Joe]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

[smoltchanov]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

Interesting.... Thanks!

[Brittain33]

No, letting go of 80% Trump districts with a coal and opioid economy is not the same as “let’s all ignore all rural areas.”

[lfromnj]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

the entire area is a prison.

[smoltchanov]

No, letting go of 80% Trump districts with a coal and opioid economy is not the same as “let’s all ignore all rural areas.”

Given percentages Democrats get in most rural districts - it's close. Teton county (WY) is exception, not rule..

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

[smoltchanov]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

[lfromnj]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

So much #populism here

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion


Barely passed in ME 2nd(mind you this isnt even some super republican district) this is a obama district.

[smoltchanov]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

So much #populism here

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/maine-ballot-measure-medicaid-expansion


Barely passed in ME 2nd(mind you this isnt even some super republican district) this is a obama district.

And Trump's too. Who ran with many populist slogans in his program. Nevertheless, socially even that district is more conservative, then on economy.. Even some Democrats are pro-life and so on... Republicans - almost uniformly, unlike coastal areas, where even them are, frequently, more moderate.

[Comrade Funk]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

Someone get IceSpear to respond

[DINGO Joe]

While the district was a little winding, it doesn't seem like an egregious gerrymander. Plus, Morgan, Elliot, and Martin all have major prisons, so it could be viewed as the prison guard district.  If it had swung up into Boyd instead of down into Pike it could have had four major prisons (plus the worst county lockup in the country). Maybe redistricting can make that happen.  Since the region can't draw in any other economic development, it becomes one of those places that get packed with state and/or federal prisoners much like WV and SW VA. 

the entire area is a prison.

Well, that's not true as the population exodus over the decades prove.  The one group of people that can't leave until they've served their time are the inmates.  Though I'm sure one could make the argument that some don't leave because they don't have the financial means.

[smoltchanov]

The Democrats can't grow until they start appealing to rural areas again. That means expanding healthcare, supporting labor unions, and expanding Social Security.

Exactly. Stress economic, not social, issues here. Many rural residents are populist enough on economy, but - strongly socially conservative. Candidates must reflect that.

Someone get IceSpear to respond

You can ignore demands of your voters. The only question is - why they must elect you in such case?.....

[Frodo]

Sen. Frank Wagner, a prominent Virginia Beach Republican, seems to know the time is up for the Virginia Republican Party as a governing party:

Virginia Beach state senator Frank Wagner will retire, and Democrats have eyes on the seat

Wagner, who also sat on the Finance, Rules, and Rehabilitation and Social Services committees, held a crucial role as part of a select group of legislators who helped put together or amend the biennial budget every year.

With the GOP holding a 21-19 majority in the Senate over the past two years, Wagner was one of the key Republicans who warmed up to the idea of Medicaid expansion, casting his vote in favor of giving more Virginians access to the federal health insurance in 2018.

Two Virginia Beach Democrats, Susan Hippen and Kim Howard, have launched campaigns for Wagner’s seat in November.

[Sestak]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

[Sestak]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

[smoltchanov]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

Most of these are strongly leaning to one or another party. So - little intrigue. But - we will see...
The most interesting today may be TX HD 125, Phoenix mayorality, and Orange (CA) county supervisor elections

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wow there are a lot of these happening tomorrow.

List?

ME HD 124
MS HD 32
MS HD 71
MS HD 101
PA HD 114
PA HD 190
TN SD 32

These plus runoffs for TX HD 125 and GA HD 175.