State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Pike totals:
all precincts

3828 wheeler

3624 pugh


District-Wide:

6475 Wheeler 53%
5805 Pugh 47%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

On to Texas:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Christina Morales   DEM   866   59.27%   866   59.27%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   595   40.72%   595   40.72%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,461      1,461   
Precincts Reported      1   of   46 Precincts      2.17%

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1103100150652829696?s=20

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We really do need to abolish gerrymandering.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

It absolutely would not. Counties that have swung 73 points in 16 years don't go back.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

And people think IceSpear and I are coming up with straw men when we mock Atlas for having a lot of people that think Trump could lose Elliott County and win Hays County

I could see the latter happening if College turnout is SUPER Low due to a bad D candidate for college students along with VERY restrictive laws on college voting by the Texas GOP.

From what I remember the courts forced the GOP to extend early voting here after they did something illegal. But the county is almost certainly the first Romney Trump D 2020 county and if the D's somehow lose it they are losing in a landslide anyway.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/VVertuccio/status/1103084432511111169

For a second I read that as 72% R and was like "NO".

I told ya that Elliott can be won back with some good' ol fashioned #Populism

Just drop the identity politics, and grow a flat top haircut, and Appalachia will be yours.

Obama won Elliot twice despite getting obliterated in Appalachia

It was one county out of hundreds and it still swung 20 points from 04.

It held in 2012 too, I dont think a Dem is gonna win it in 2020 but its not impossible

It is impossible.

I think in a Double Digit Dem Victory Elliot would flip.


Up to an 8 point Dem win Elliot will be solidly R but then after that it would begin swing hard and flip Dem around a 12 point Dem victory

And people think IceSpear and I are coming up with straw men when we mock Atlas for having a lot of people that think Trump could lose Elliott County and win Hays County

Lmao I never said it could happen at the same time


I said it would require Trump to lose by 12 points nationally to lose Elliot

For him to win Hayes he needs to win the popular vote

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1103100150652829696?s=20

Republicans in Disarray

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

Republican gerrymandering strikes again.

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

Republican gerrymandering strikes again.

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The House was, but the Senate was drawn to favor Republicans. That being said, this district was designed for a Democrat.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1103093254428463104

Republican gerrymandering strikes again.

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The House was, but the Senate was drawn to favor Republicans. That being said, this district was designed for a Democrat.

Ah, I did not know. But the senate map is not at all an R gerrymander, especially this seat specifically.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The KY Senate is 78% GOP. I guarantee you the statewide popular vote wasn't 78% GOP.

[ON Progressive]

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The KY Senate is 78% GOP. I guarantee you the statewide popular vote wasn't 78% GOP.

That's not evidence of gerrymandering. On fair maps in FPTP systems, the winner of the popular vote tends to have their seats overblown.

[Zaybay]

I feel I must point this out, but the KY map isnt an R gerrymander, but a compromise/D favored map drawn during a split legislature with a D governor.

The KY Senate is 78% GOP. I guarantee you the statewide popular vote wasn't 78% GOP.

You have to take the number from when the map was first drawn. Seats change over time, and just as TX has seen its gerrymander crumble, or how the AR Democrats accidentally drew an R gerrymander, its highly possible changes in the electorate led to such an occurrence.

The first elections with the new map led to a senate composed of 22Rs and 15Ds and 1 I, which means the Rs started off with 58% of the total seats.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1103100150652829696?s=20

Republicans in Disarray

Time to panic?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The first elections with the new map led to a senate composed of 22Rs and 15Ds and 1 I, which means the Rs started off with 58% of the total seats.

The GOP didn't even get 58% of the popular vote. That just doesn't happen in Kentucky. The Democrats have a pretty high floor even when they don't win.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Christina Morales   DEM   866   59.27%   1,042   59.95%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   595   40.72%   696   40.04%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,461      1,738   
Precincts Reported      11   of   46 Precincts      23.91%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Christina Morales   DEM   866   59.27%   1,492   62.21%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   595   40.72%   906   37.78%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,461      2,398   
Precincts Reported      29   of   46 Precincts      63.04%

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Christina Morales   DEM   866   59.27%   1,700   60.58%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   595   40.72%   1,106   39.41%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,461      2,806   
Precincts Reported      42   of   46 Precincts      91.30%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump +80? That district was a goner. Pleasantly surprised how close it was!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 145               
Christina Morales   DEM   866   59.27%   1,824   60.75%
Melissa Noriega   DEM   595   40.72%   1,178   39.24%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      1,461      3,002   
Precincts Reported      46   of   46 Precincts      100.00%

That concludes tonight's election coverage

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1103100150652829696?s=20

Detailed Results:
June Speakman (Democrat) 862 votes (39.8%, -24.2)
William Hunt Jr. (Libertarian) 615 votes (28.4%, -6.9)
Kenneth Marshall (Independent) 511 votes (23.6%)
James McCanna III (Independent) 176 votes (8.1%)

Kenneth Marshall was the incumbent (he was the representative between 2012 and 2018, but as the winner of 2018 forfeited the election due to a scandal, he was allowed to stay until the election. He was elected as a Democrat, but left party last year claiming the party was overrun by Progressives.)