State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Gass3268]

Looks like HD-18 could be D vs D

Am I missing something here? Because can someone please explain to me how Democrats are combining for 74% of the vote in a seat Trump won by 15 or some-odd points?

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1099506856660213761

He was off here, Fabre is a Republican. Still, crazy total for the Democrats.

[smoltchanov]

Yeah but I wonder if Lacombe is running as a conservaDem though. Because it makes no sense for Republicans to only be getting 26% of the vote in a district Trump got 59% in in the South. That doesn’t really make sense at all even if it has “ancestral Democrats” or whatever

He MUST run (and really be) as rather conservative Democrat if he wants to win. This is acestrally Democratic, but, at least - moderate conservative district, where only such Democrats have a chance. Two last legislators from it - former congressman Cazayoux (surely - right of center) and Thibaut (who was second conservative Democrat in state House after Danahay by most ratings, and real moderate conservative, with typical ratings about 60 from ACU, about 70 - from LABI, and 100 - from Louisiana "Right to Life"). So, no liberals here, pls! There are enough districts where they fit, but - not here. IMHO - it's one of, may be, three Louisiana districts (with 60th and 75th) most closely resembling (minus open racism, of course) "old Dixie districts".

P.S. i am more surprised by very poor results by Democrats in HD-62, and whether a "grand coalition" will be able to stop a leading Republican...

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah but I wonder if Lacombe is running as a conservaDem though. Because it makes no sense for Republicans to only be getting 26% of the vote in a district Trump got 59% in in the South. That doesn’t really make sense at all even if it has “ancestral Democrats” or whatever

He MUST run (and really be) as rather conservative Democrat if he wants to win. This is acestrally Democratic, but, at least - moderate conservative district, where only such Democrats have a chance. Two last legislators from it - former congressman Cazayoux (surely - right of center) and Thibaut (who was second conservative Democrat in state House after Danahay by most ratings, and real moderate conservative, with typical ratings about 60 from ACU, about 70 - from LABI, and 100 - from Louisiana "Right to Life"). So, no liberals here, pls! There are enough districts where they fit, but - not here. IMHO - it's one of, may be, three Louisiana districts (with 60th and 75th) most closely resembling (minus open racism, of course) "old Dixie districts".

P.S. i am more surprised by very poor results by Democrats in HD-62, and whether a "grand coalition" will be able to stop a leading Republican...

I don't think anyone knows who this indie will hypothetically caucus with yet, but the precinct results show him winning mostly Dem or Edwards -> Trump precincts. So one has to assume those are his voters. Check out @jmilescoleman, the Louisiana election twitter master for more information. 

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

LA:

12: R win
17: Goes to D v D runoff
18: Goes to D v R runoff
26: D win
27: R win
47: R win
62: Goes to R v I Runoff

Control of these seats before the elections: 4-3 R
Control of these seats after the elections: 3-2 R with 2 seats undecided

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Elections are in Connecticut State Senate 3, 5, 6 and State House 39 & 99. These will be held on Tuesday. All were previously held by Democrats who are now in Lamont's Cabinet. It is critical for Dems to retain all five seats.

[Oryxslayer]

State House 39: Urban New London
State House 99: East Haven

Senate 3/5/6: gerrymanders that grab ultra-blue inner Hartford Suburbs and then spiral out to more tossup suburbs. 6 actually is fully inner suburban with New Britain.

The only one the republicans have a chance at is 99.

[smoltchanov]

LA:

12: R win
17: Goes to D v D runoff
18: Goes to D v R runoff
26: D win
27: R win
47: R win
62: Goes to R v I Runoff

Control of these seats before the elections: 4-3 R
Control of these seats after the elections: 3-2 R with 2 seats undecided

Good chances it will remain 4-3. Republican is, probably, favored in 62th, Democrat - in 18th. Though strange things happened sometimes...

[LimoLiberal]

Connecticut has the worst election reporting of any state. At least for these podunk specials.

[lfromnj]

whats the odds the CT obama trump district flips?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone able to find a results page?

[_]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1100572604715405313

[lfromnj]

Have the dems made a single gain this year?

[LimoLiberal]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

[FairBol]

https://twitter.com/electionwatchus/status/1100572604715405313

"Bizarro"? Is that a real name? LOL. 

[lfromnj]

Looks like the GOP picked up that Obama Trump district too. HD 99 I think.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

Lol do you think any Democrat is actually going to listen or notice?  I went through this already in 2009/2010.  Democrats just don’t care.  They’ll keep coming back with this idiotic “all politics is local” excuse, which has never been the case since at least the mid 1990s.

[LimoLiberal]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

Lol do you think any Democrat is actually going to listen or notice?  I went through this already in 2009/2010.  Democrats just don’t care.

We'll hear "oh no, these are just a few special elections, the political environment is friendly for Democrats" for two or three more months, then after we lose the Pittsburgh special elections the Dems  in disarray articles will start in Politico, candidates will worry about demobilization, Northam puts on more blackface, Rashida Tlaib says something anti-semitic.

Boom. November 2020. Trump reelected and Dems lose the house under low turnout.

[lfromnj]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_New_York%27s_26th_congressional_district_special_election

Could we actually being see a temporary pendulum swing back?(No im not LL here) but just talking about a swing back.  Im pretty sure excluding LA dems have underperformed in almost every SE this year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, dem apathy starting to kick in, not good.

[Mr.Phips]

It looks like Rs are going to flip two seats tonight.

REPUBLICANS JUST FLIPPED A 60-37 CLINTON SEAT (SD-6) AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE.

THERE IS SOMETHING WRONG, DEMOCRATS.

Lol do you think any Democrat is actually going to listen or notice?  I went through this already in 2009/2010.  Democrats just don’t care.

Democrats were cleaning house in special elections in that time period though, lol

Uh, if you look at state legislative specials, Dems were getting killed. 

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1100579274816409600?s=19

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems don’t pick up the PA state senate seat with a good nominee next month then that would be time to start raising the alarms. There’s been too many mixed results thus far.

I would agree with this.  Dems should be able to pick up that seat in PA.  Dems have a good candidate running against a perennial loser Republican.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So so far this year we've had:

GA: Bad Result
MN: Bad Result
CT: Bad Result
TX: Average Result
LA: Average Result
VA: Good Result

Not good for Democrats. Something is clearly changing from 2018.

[Bidenworth2020]

Lamont backlash maybe? Honestly I have no idea what happened.

[_]

Lamont backlash maybe? Honestly I have no idea what happened.

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