State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Zaybay]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

[smoltchanov]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

32% of the seat is black or Hispanic, Dems got just 14%. It's a disappointment.

[Zaybay]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

32% of the seat is black or Hispanic, Dems got just 14%. It's a disappointment.

Did you sleep through the GA specials last year where the Democrats got extremely similar performances in the same area?

Context is key.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

32% of the seat is black or Hispanic, Dems got just 14%. It's a disappointment.

Did you sleep through the GA specials last year where the Democrats got extremely similar performances in the same area?

Context is key.

Just because it happened in some instances in 2018 doesn't excuse it. The fact is the Democratic coalition is lazy and apathetic here and that needs to change.

[LimoLiberal]

What happened to Democrats over-performing in these special elections? Rasmussen has Trump at 50-48, I guess the national environment has shifted.

[Zaybay]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

32% of the seat is black or Hispanic, Dems got just 14%. It's a disappointment.

Did you sleep through the GA specials last year where the Democrats got extremely similar performances in the same area?

Context is key.

Just because it happened in some instances in 2018 doesn't excuse it. The fact is the Democratic coalition is lazy and apathetic here and that needs to change.

Its important because it provides context on why every single GA special not in the metro has given similar results. And this is really just GA, BTW.

Context, its key.

[LimoLiberal]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

[DINGO Joe]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

lol at the idea that rural Hispanics in GA are even registered. 

[ON Progressive]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

A 72% Hispanic seat having awful turnout helping Republicans is not anything new, or surprising.

[LimoLiberal]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

A 72% Hispanic seat having awful turnout helping Republicans is not anything new, or surprising.

So many excuses...
Democratic over-performance in 2017 and 2018 specials came in all types of seats. Now, its happening in none of them. Look to the Pittsburgh suburbs, a state senate seat that every statewide and congressional democrat won in 2018, for the next fail.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 125               
Steve Huerta   DEM   279   7.51%   395   6.46%
Ray Lopez   DEM   706   19.00%   1,186   19.41%
Fred A. Rangel   REP   1,354   36.45%   2,319   37.96%
Coda Rayo-Garza   DEM   660   17.77%   1,164   19.05%
Arthur "Art" Reyna   DEM   715   19.25%   1,045   17.10%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      3,714      6,109   
Precincts Reported      60   of   60 Precincts      100.00%

[smoltchanov]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

lol at the idea that rural Hispanics in GA are even registered.  

Even 25 is considerably more, then 15.. AFAIK - Blacks vote freely now. It's not 1950's anymore...

[Politician]

lol at Limo's #analysis. I remember when he and Wulfric were freaking out over that low turnout special election in the RGV the Republican picked-up.

[Gustaf]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

A 72% Hispanic seat having awful turnout helping Republicans is not anything new, or surprising.

So many excuses...
Democratic over-performance in 2017 and 2018 specials came in all types of seats. Now, its happening in none of them. Look to the Pittsburgh suburbs, a state senate seat that every statewide and congressional democrat won in 2018, for the next fail.

Were Democrats over-performing everywhere in 2017 and 2018? Because you certainly weren't saying that at the time.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Here's some context for you deniers - a Republican has 37% in the Texas seat. Trump got 33% there in 2016, and Cruz probably got like 28%.

Only one takeaway from these special elections: Republicans surging.

A 72% Hispanic seat having awful turnout helping Republicans is not anything new, or surprising.

So many excuses...
Democratic over-performance in 2017 and 2018 specials came in all types of seats. Now, its happening in none of them. Look to the Pittsburgh suburbs, a state senate seat that every statewide and congressional democrat won in 2018, for the next fail.

Were Democrats over-performing everywhere in 2017 and 2018? Because you certainly weren't saying that at the time.

[Brittain33]

A note on trolling and moderation for a new year of special elections:

There is a healthy tradition on Atlas of people being boastful, even gloating about good election results for them or poor election results for the other team. Moderators tend to tread lightly here and are averse to engaging in fact checking.

There's no bright shining line for trolling, but repeatedly posting dishonest and disingenuous claims that have already been hashed out and disproven in order to get a response or "own" the other party crosses that line.

I haven't tracked all of the results for special elections so far and if LimoLiberal's posts are accurate or not, but so far, it looks like we have too little data to say at this point that he's being disingenuous or dishonest in his claims. If you think a post is trolling, mark it and Virginia or I will review.

[Brittain33]

JAMES BURCHETT - REP42.50%1,494
BARBARA GRIFFIN - DEM4.10%144
FRANKLIN PATTEN - REP43.13%1,516
BARBARA SEIDMAN - DEM10.27%361


Another disappointment for the Democratic party.

Well, 65% White, 25% Black and 7% Hispanic rural Southern district, is, of course, Republican now, but - i still expected better performance from Democratic candidates.

lol at the idea that rural Hispanics in GA are even registered.  

Even 25 is considerably more, then 15.. AFAIK - Blacks vote freely now. It's not 1950's anymore...

True, but if you have two viable campaigns with two Republicans facing off in a Republican district, and two Dem some guys with no campaigns, you're not going to get much turnout at all for the some guys in a special election which most people don't know is happening.

[Brittain33]

What happened to Democrats over-performing in these special elections? Rasmussen has Trump at 50-48, I guess the national environment has shifted.

Rasmussen is known to be a complete outlier on national polling for Trump. They also predicted R+1 in the 2018 special elections. You know that, right?

[ON Progressive]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

[smoltchanov]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

Or just dem excuses for another sh!t performance.

[smoltchanov]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Or just dem excuses for another sh!t performance.
Finally - good explanation of results.

Democratic label is absolute poison in most non-Black rural South, so - i am not surprised, that relative moderates there prefer to run as Republicans. Vice versa of situation in Hawaii, Vermont or Massachusetts, where even slightly conservative public tends to run as Democrats because of similar reasons.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next special election is on the 19th in VA HD 86. It's a safely democratic district that Clinton carried by 35 points - but Republicans are contesting the race, and the margin will tell us a lot about the impact of Northamgate and whether the disappointment we've seen in Minnesota and Georgia is being reflected elsewhere in the country.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Someone on reddit who lives in GA HD-176 (he's a Democrat, for the record) had this to say about the race that would explain a lot:
"From my point of view this was always a two man race between Patten and Burchett with the majority of people not even knowing that the two Democrats ran. Patten is a Democrat turned moderate Republican (if there's even such a thing anymore) and Burchett is a Trump cultist. The race was framed as the Republican Burchett vs the Democrat Patten so I suspect an inconveniently large number of Democratic votes went to Patten"

Finally - good explanation of results.

Or just dem excuses for another sh!t performance.

Neither of the Democratic candidates had money to turn out voters and the local Democratic county committees are decimated (if they even exist).