State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[smoltchanov]

There’s a special called for Guy Reschenthaler’s old senate seat. Only Trump+6 and per ProudNewEnglander, both Wolf and Casey easily won it by double digits. Key to Dems winning the state senate in 2020. I imagine Dems would be favored there in the special

Surely more Democratic district, then present Congressional Reschenthaler took (PA-14), bu,t again - depends on candidates. Democrats would need young energetic moderate (Conor Lamb-2) here, probably. Whether they have it - another question.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/local_news/house-election-slated-for-feb/article_7f4b18ad-ba6e-5f97-9964-11411602d8da.html

Special election will happen in February in GA HD-176. Don't expect much here. It's a 68-29 Trump district, and Kemp probably did even better here considering every county that is at least partially inside the district swung to Kemp.

[DINGO Joe]

https://www.valdostadailytimes.com/news/local_news/house-election-slated-for-feb/article_7f4b18ad-ba6e-5f97-9964-11411602d8da.html

Special election will happen in February in GA HD-176. Don't expect much here. It's a 68-29 Trump district, and Kemp probably did even better here considering every county that is at least partially inside the district swung to Kemp.

Whatever happened to the GA representative who basically disappeared and ran off to England?   

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Has anyone heard of this?

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/03/tim-walz-tony-lourey-mn-human-services/

Seat located in Pine and Carlton and went heard for Trump.

What the hell is walz sinking?!? Picking up Democratic senator from me hard Trump swing District which could endanger control of the state senate? When you could have picked literally anyone and everyone under the sun qualified to fill this position?

This is why Democrats lose, and it's not just Republican and Trump voters that fail to respect them.

Republicans already control the State Senate

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule - January/February

January 8 - GA HD 5, VA SD 33
January 29 - TX HD 79 & 145
February 5 - MN SD 11
February 23 - LA HD 12, 17, 18, 26, 27, 47, 62

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Has anyone heard of this?

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/03/tim-walz-tony-lourey-mn-human-services/

Seat located in Pine and Carlton and went heard for Trump.

What the hell is walz sinking?!? Picking up Democratic senator from me hard Trump swing District which could endanger control of the state senate? When you could have picked literally anyone and everyone under the sun qualified to fill this position?

This is why Democrats lose, and it's not just Republican and Trump voters that fail to respect them.

I'd be lying if I said i wasn't nervous, but this is a Klobuchar/Smith/Walz seat as well. And I bet Walz consulted with DFL leaders who are confident we can hold the seat. The special election atmosphere will probably remain similar to 2018, plus Loury's son will likely run.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There’s a special called for Guy Reschenthaler’s old senate seat. Only Trump+6 and per ProudNewEnglander, both Wolf and Casey easily won it by double digits. Key to Dems winning the state senate in 2020. I imagine Dems would be favored there in the special

Surely more Democratic district, then present Congressional Reschenthaler took (PA-14), bu,t again - depends on candidates. Democrats would need young energetic moderate (Conor Lamb-2) here, probably. Whether they have it - another question.

No. The district voted 16% for Wolf and 12% for Casey, matching their statewide margins. And it’s 14 points to the left of the old PA-18. A standard Democrat should be perfectly able to win a special, particularly if the Allegheny GOP nominates perennial candidate D Raja again

Feterrman's wife should run, I'm not kidding. But it is too late, she should have run.

[smoltchanov]

There’s a special called for Guy Reschenthaler’s old senate seat. Only Trump+6 and per ProudNewEnglander, both Wolf and Casey easily won it by double digits. Key to Dems winning the state senate in 2020. I imagine Dems would be favored there in the special

Surely more Democratic district, then present Congressional Reschenthaler took (PA-14), bu,t again - depends on candidates. Democrats would need young energetic moderate (Conor Lamb-2) here, probably. Whether they have it - another question.

No. The district voted 16% for Wolf and 12% for Casey, matching their statewide margins. And it’s 14 points to the left of the old PA-18. A standard Democrat should be perfectly able to win a special, particularly if the Allegheny GOP nominates perennial candidate D Raja again

Disagree. Trump +6 is not too little after all. So - moderate ONLY! If it would be +1 - another matter.. Wolf and Casey had very weak opponents, so their percentages here must be taken with considerable grain of salt.

P.S. Generally in my personal "book" anything R+ is a "natural moderate's pasture" (where else, if not here?) with more difficult areas (around R+10) reserved for few remaining moderate conservatives. "Standard Democrats" begin with D+0. Otherwise risk to lose outweighs doubtful plusus of "ideological purity" (though personally it's not plus, but minus, for me. As i said many times - i strongly dislike "loyal foot soldiers" of ANY sort).

[Badger]

Has anyone heard of this?

https://www.twincities.com/2019/01/03/tim-walz-tony-lourey-mn-human-services/

Seat located in Pine and Carlton and went heard for Trump.

What the hell is walz sinking?!? Picking up Democratic senator from me hard Trump swing District which could endanger control of the state senate? When you could have picked literally anyone and everyone under the sun qualified to fill this position?

This is why Democrats lose, and it's not just Republican and Trump voters that fail to respect them.

Republicans already control the State Senate

By one damn seat prior to this move. A single resignation/death (sorry to be morbid) or maybe promoting a somewhat fed up Republican from a swing district to the cabinet? Bad move.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results pages for tonight:

VA: https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2019%20January%208%20Special/Site/GeneralAssembly.html

GA: Page will be up later


Polls close at 7 ET

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final guess, Boysko wins 65-35.

[nolesfan2011]

GA HD-05 Special Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/94045/Web02-state.222648/#/

[DINGO Joe]

Final guess, Boysko wins 65-35.

Looks like 70-30

[LimoLiberal]

Lol. There's 5 republicans and 1 democrat in the georgia race. The democrats is currently receiving 4.77% of the vote. White rural america at its finest!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final guess, Boysko wins 65-35.

Looks like 70-30

Woah, that is really good!

[ON Progressive]

Tim Kaine won Virginia's 33rd Senate District by a 41.1% margin. Tonight, Boysko won it by 39.7%.

Keep in mind, Boysko was going up against a relatively moderate former State House member who had pretty good name ID. Kaine was going up against a neo-Confederate.

Yet another example of "ideology means next to nothing in elections"

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For the GA race, Jesse Vaughn (R) and Matt Barton (R) will proceed to a runoff on February 5.

Next specials are in TX HD 79 and 145 on January 29.

[smoltchanov]

Tim Kaine won Virginia's 33rd Senate District by a 41.1% margin. Tonight, Boysko won it by 39.7%.

Keep in mind, Boysko was going up against a relatively moderate former State House member who had pretty good name ID. Kaine was going up against a neo-Confederate.

Yet another example of "ideology means next to nothing in elections"

Yeah, and that makes elections in America boring formality. No intrigue, no crossover voting, two armies of very predictable robots "compete".....

[Boobs]

Tim Kaine won Virginia's 33rd Senate District by a 41.1% margin. Tonight, Boysko won it by 39.7%.

Keep in mind, Boysko was going up against a relatively moderate former State House member who had pretty good name ID. Kaine was going up against a neo-Confederate.

Yet another example of "ideology means next to nothing in elections"

Yeah, and that makes elections in America boring formality. No intrigue, no crossover voting, two armies of very predictable robots "compete".....

Alexa, this is SO sad. Play Despacito — World’s Smallest Violin remix

[Kevinstat]

There will be a special election in Maine, as Bangor Rep. Aaron Frey has been nominated as Attorney General. He will ascend to the office in the coming weeks. And we already have people getting ready to run for the seat.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdME/status/1070082203663691776

https://twitter.com/bensprague/status/1070124049496457216

In case people are curious, Frey's district was House District 124 (roughly eastern Bangor and western Orono).  It's main predecessor district used in the 2004 through 2010 elections, House District 18, went Republican over the Democratic incumbent from Orono in 2010 (52.99% to 47.01% not counting blanks), but Frey unseated that Republican in 2012 (with Frey getting 57.60% to the Republican's 42.40% not counting blanks).  And that Republican's hometown of Veazie was taken out of the district in 2013 and a more of both Bangor and Orono put in.  The current district still might have gone Republican in 2010 (outside Veazie, the Republican won 50.46% to 49.54% in 2010 not counting blanks, and he carried the Bangor portion, but of course that Republican wouldn't have been eligible to run if his hometown wasn't in the district and the additional territory in both municipalities seems more urban than the old district's portions of those municipalities).  So it's not as Democratic as you might think just going by the municipalities in it, but it still has a definite Democratic lean.

If State Rep. Drew Gattine (D-Westbrook) gets offered a job in the Mills administration or otherwise declines to take the oath of office (he didn't take the oath on Wednesday, but last I checked he hadn't sent a communication whereby he declined to take to oath, so perhaps he could still take it without having to run in a special election if he doesn't get a job he wants), there will also be a special election for State Representative in House District 34 (Westbrook south of the Presumpscot River, not counting the part of the river where the centerline dips back into Westbrook as you're going upstream).  That House district, largely the same from 1994 on (Westbrook has had exactly two House districts since then, but it may gain a partial third district for the 2020s as it's been growing faster than the state recently), has gone Democratic throughout that time and I believe the main southern Westbrook district has been D-held going back into the 1980s at least.  Westbrook has elected Republican mayors before, and I think it voted Republican for State Senate in 2002, but I've heard that the southern part of Westbrook is the more solidly Democratic part.  So it should be a fairly easy Democratic hold if there indeed is a special election there.

Bangor, Orono voters will choose their new state rep. March 12

The official notice of the election can be viewed here.

The Democrats will caucus this coming Tuesday, January 15 to choose their nominee (Maine doesn't have primaries for special elections or candidate vacancies other than for Governor, U.S. Senate or U.S. House).  I'm not sure when the Republicans are meeting or if they have already met (I imagine they'll field someone, but not spend much energy or money on the race), or whether the Greens will run a candidate or if any non-party candidates are running.  The deadline for nomination paperwork or non-party petitions is 5:00 p.m. on Friday, July 18.

Bangor City Council President ("Mayor") Sarah Nichols seems to have recent Maine Democratic history on her side, as the young female type seems to be in vogue among Maine Democrats right now.  Belfast voters (in an election featuring all voters, but where Democrats probably largely supported the winner) ousted their Mayor (a former Democratic State Rep. and a Belfast native) in 2017 in favor of a young woman from the Saint John Valley who has since had a strained relationship with the City Council.

State Representative Drew Gattine (D-Westbrook) didn't get nominated for DHHS Commissioner (he had apparently been in the running) and was sworn in by Governor Mills last week.  So there won't be a special election for his seat.  He's still in an influential position - House Chair of Appropriations.

[Kevinstat]

There will be a special election in Maine, as Bangor Rep. Aaron Frey has been nominated as Attorney General. He will ascend to the office in the coming weeks. And we already have people getting ready to run for the seat.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdME/status/1070082203663691776

https://twitter.com/bensprague/status/1070124049496457216

In case people are curious, Frey's district was House District 124 (roughly eastern Bangor and western Orono).  It's main predecessor district used in the 2004 through 2010 elections, House District 18, went Republican over the Democratic incumbent from Orono in 2010 (52.99% to 47.01% not counting blanks), but Frey unseated that Republican in 2012 (with Frey getting 57.60% to the Republican's 42.40% not counting blanks).  And that Republican's hometown of Veazie was taken out of the district in 2013 and a more of both Bangor and Orono put in.  The current district still might have gone Republican in 2010 (outside Veazie, the Republican won 50.46% to 49.54% in 2010 not counting blanks, and he carried the Bangor portion, but of course that Republican wouldn't have been eligible to run if his hometown wasn't in the district and the additional territory in both municipalities seems more urban than the old district's portions of those municipalities).  So it's not as Democratic as you might think just going by the municipalities in it, but it still has a definite Democratic lean.

If State Rep. Drew Gattine (D-Westbrook) gets offered a job in the Mills administration or otherwise declines to take the oath of office (he didn't take the oath on Wednesday, but last I checked he hadn't sent a communication whereby he declined to take to oath, so perhaps he could still take it without having to run in a special election if he doesn't get a job he wants), there will also be a special election for State Representative in House District 34 (Westbrook south of the Presumpscot River, not counting the part of the river where the centerline dips back into Westbrook as you're going upstream).  That House district, largely the same from 1994 on (Westbrook has had exactly two House districts since then, but it may gain a partial third district for the 2020s as it's been growing faster than the state recently), has gone Democratic throughout that time and I believe the main southern Westbrook district has been D-held going back into the 1980s at least.  Westbrook has elected Republican mayors before, and I think it voted Republican for State Senate in 2002, but I've heard that the southern part of Westbrook is the more solidly Democratic part.  So it should be a fairly easy Democratic hold if there indeed is a special election there.

Bangor, Orono voters will choose their new state rep. March 12

The official notice of the election can be viewed here.

The Democrats will caucus this coming Tuesday, January 15 to choose their nominee (Maine doesn't have primaries for special elections or candidate vacancies other than for Governor, U.S. Senate or U.S. House).  I'm not sure when the Republicans are meeting or if they have already met (I imagine they'll field someone, but not spend much energy or money on the race), or whether the Greens will run a candidate or if any non-party candidates are running.  The deadline for nomination paperwork or non-party petitions is 5:00 p.m. on Friday, July 18.

Bangor City Council President ("Mayor") Sarah Nichols seems to have recent Maine Democratic history on her side, as the young female type seems to be in vogue among Maine Democrats right now.  Belfast voters (in an election featuring all voters, but where Democrats probably largely supported the winner) ousted their Mayor (a former Democratic State Rep. and a Belfast native) in 2017 in favor of a young woman from the Saint John Valley who has since had a strained relationship with the City Council.

State Representative Drew Gattine (D-Westbrook) didn't get nominated for DHHS Commissioner (he had apparently been in the running) and was sworn in by Governor Mills last week.  So there won't be a special election for his seat.  He's still in an influential position - House Chair of Appropriations.

3 Republicans, 2 Dems seek party nods next week to run for open Bangor House seat

The Republicans will choose their nominee Wednesday, January 16, a day after the Democrats.  One of the three Republicans seeking their party's nomination ran and lost for the House seat last year, while another one ran unsuccessfully for the State Senate.  The third Republican is a political newcomer.  The Republican who won in the main predecessor district in 2010 lives in Veazie, which was moved out of the district in 2013 (he carried the part outside Veazie, but he can't run in a district he doesn't live in).

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Newsom set dates for the California special senate elections (Seats 1 and 33, held by Gaines and Lara, respectively). March 26 for the primary and June 4 for the general. There will be no general election in the event that a candidate breaks 50% in the primary.

Source

Not sure about 33, but I guarantee that there will be a general election for the 1st district. It’s heavily Republican and two current Republican assemblymen and a Republican former assemblywoman are running along with at least one other Republican. Haven’t heard about any Democrats running yet.

[Seattle]

There will be a WA Senate special in LD-40 some time later this year. Kevin Ranker (D-Orcas Island) resigned January 9th after being asked to by the WA Dems due to multiple allegations of sexual harassment. This is a super safe D district composed of the San Juan Islands, Bellingham, Mt. Vernon, and Anacortes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

We nominated a muslim for Boysko’s old state hous seat, on February 19th he will become a state house member, exciting.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Newsom set dates for the California special senate elections (Seats 1 and 33, held by Gaines and Lara, respectively). March 26 for the primary and June 4 for the general. There will be no general election in the event that a candidate breaks 50% in the primary.

Source

Not sure about 33, but I guarantee that there will be a general election for the 1st district. It’s heavily Republican and two current Republican assemblymen and a Republican former assemblywoman are running along with at least one other Republican. Haven’t heard about any Democrats running yet.

Haven’t seen anything in the news about any Democrats running for this race. I didn’t see a section on the SoS website listing who’s running. Is there a good site to see who has filed yet?