State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Badger]

Since nobody posted about these, I may as well post about them. 3 state legislative specials, one in Dec. 2018 and two in 2019. I put in candidates where I am aware of any.

Virginia State House District 24 (Dec 18, 2018)

Candidates: Ronnie Campbell (R) vs. Christian Worth (D)
Location: All of Rockbridge/Bath counties, most of Amherst County, SW Augusta County, independent cities of Lexington/Buena Vista

2017 Governor: 65-34 Gillespie
2016 POTUS: 66-30 Trump

Virginia State Senate District 33 (Jan 8, 2019/incumbent Jennifer Wexton resigned after election to Congress)

Candidates: Jennifer Boysko (D) vs. Joe May (R)
Location: NoVa, 73% Loudoun County/26% Fairfax County (Sterling/Herndon/Reston/Leesburg/etc)

2017 Governor: 67-32 Northam
2016 POTUS: 62-32 Clinton

South Carolina State Senate District 6 (March 26, 2019/incumbent William Timmons resigned after election to Congress)
Candidates: TBD (Primary Jan 22/Runoff Primary Feb 5)
Location: Greenville and suburbs
2016 POTUS: 61.8-31.4 Trump
2012 POTUS: 67.4-30.6 Romney

VA HD-24 is Safe R, VA SD-33 is Safe D, SC SD-06 is Safe R.

Although the Virginia seat appears to be solidly Republican, wouldn't a theoretical Democratic win their flip the house?

[Virginiá]

Although the Virginia seat appears to be solidly Republican, wouldn't a theoretical Democratic win their flip the house?

It would bring it to a tie and a power-sharing agreement would have to be worked out at least until 2020.

[ON Progressive]

Since nobody posted about these, I may as well post about them. 3 state legislative specials, one in Dec. 2018 and two in 2019. I put in candidates where I am aware of any.

Virginia State House District 24 (Dec 18, 2018)

Candidates: Ronnie Campbell (R) vs. Christian Worth (D)
Location: All of Rockbridge/Bath counties, most of Amherst County, SW Augusta County, independent cities of Lexington/Buena Vista

2017 Governor: 65-34 Gillespie
2016 POTUS: 66-30 Trump

Virginia State Senate District 33 (Jan 8, 2019/incumbent Jennifer Wexton resigned after election to Congress)

Candidates: Jennifer Boysko (D) vs. Joe May (R)
Location: NoVa, 73% Loudoun County/26% Fairfax County (Sterling/Herndon/Reston/Leesburg/etc)

2017 Governor: 67-32 Northam
2016 POTUS: 62-32 Clinton

South Carolina State Senate District 6 (March 26, 2019/incumbent William Timmons resigned after election to Congress)
Candidates: TBD (Primary Jan 22/Runoff Primary Feb 5)
Location: Greenville and suburbs
2016 POTUS: 61.8-31.4 Trump
2012 POTUS: 67.4-30.6 Romney

VA HD-24 is Safe R, VA SD-33 is Safe D, SC SD-06 is Safe R.

Although the Virginia seat appears to be solidly Republican, wouldn't a theoretical Democratic win their flip the house?

It would make the House 50-50, although I don't think it would hold in 2019 so if Dems get the House majority, it's highly unlikely this seat is a part of it.

[Virginiá]

These seats are basically unwinnable outside of some freak special election upset.

[lfromnj]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

[Mr.Phips]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

May be a tad more Republican, but yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe it.

[lfromnj]

whens the PA senate election special?
Thats probably the most important one thats coming up. Its basically a mini version of Conor Lambs current district.

May be a tad more Republican, but yeah, that's a pretty good way to describe it.

it actually matched the statewide margin for wolf and casey this year which was +13 and +17 but PA had a lot of split ticketing.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We're following three races tonight in GA. All Wulfric Projections will be posted on this thread, though some discussion may end up happening elsewhere.

SOS
PSC Dist. 3
State House 28 Special (Technically a primary, but whoever wins will be completely unopposed in the general, so this is the election.)

Results here after polls close at 7 ET: https://www.ajc.com/news/gen-politics/georgia-runoff-election-results/sSahVAMD47VsrLoZjy4EDK/

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
Chris Erwin   GOP   2,527   51%
Dan Gasaway i   GOP   2,404   49%
Total   4,931

Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
Chuck Eaton i   GOP   219,641   66%
Lindy Miller   Dem   113,511   34%
Total   333,152

[MAINEiac4434]

There will be a special election in Maine, as Bangor Rep. Aaron Frey has been nominated as Attorney General. He will ascend to the office in the coming weeks. And we already have people getting ready to run for the seat.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdME/status/1070082203663691776

https://twitter.com/bensprague/status/1070124049496457216

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTIONS:

Public Service Commission, District 3 - Metro-Atlanta
Add this race to my races
Click for Contest Details
Counties/Precincts Reporting: 53 % PercentageVotes
CHUCK EATON (I) (REP)60.69%399,584
LINDY MILLER (DEM)39.31%258,838
658,422

Candidate   Party   Votes   Pct.
Brad Raffensperger
Republican
396,029   60.6%
John Barrow
Democrat
257,032   39.4
653,061 votes, 37% reporting (969 of 2,634 precincts)

----------------


Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
Chris Erwin   GOP   2,823   51%
Dan Gasaway i   GOP   2,685   49%
Total   5,508

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Party   Votes   Percentage
Chris Erwin   GOP   3,516   50%
Dan Gasaway i   GOP   3,513   50%
Total   7,029

[Ebsy]

The PSC race ended up being surprisingly close.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Brian Dahle announces run for California’s 1st Senate District.

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Sen Ted Gaines (R-CA-1) will be resigning to take a seat on the Board of Equalization that he won earlier this month. I don’t have a date for the election yet, but it will be happening.

Rex Hime announces that he will run for CA Sen-1.

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So far, it’s 2 Republicans and no Dems.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

[smoltchanov]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

[smoltchanov]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

So, you will simply get another Republican in Assembly...

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

The CA Sen-1 Clown car continues to fill up. Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of the 6th District is running and incumbent Ted Gaines’ wife, Beth (also Kiley’s predecessor) is thought to be planning a run.

Source: The Sacramento Bee

That brings it up to 3 confirmed Republicans, with a 4th likely to announce soon. No Democrats have announced; it’s a very Republican district.

Party Affiliations: 41% R, 28.5% D, 22.5% NPP

If I had to pick a Republican to win, I’d vote for Kiley so that my assembly district gets a special election.

Isn't Kiley's district Republican too?

Yeah, Kiley won something like 58-42 or so this year.

So, you will simply get another Republican in Assembly...

Almost certainly, but special elections are still fun.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Happy Election Night! Tonight, we're following an array of races in Louisiana. Results will be here after polls close at 9 ET: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical . To see all races at once, click the "multi-parish" tab. Races are as follows:

Secretary of State
HD 90 Special (R v R)
Judge - Civil District Court - Division E (D v D)
Shreveport Mayor (D v D)
Alderman - Arnaudville (D v D)
Alderman - Eunice Ward 1 (R v I)
Alderman - Eunice Ward 2 (D v D)
Councilman - Shreveport District A (D v D)
Councilman - Shreveport District B
Councilman - Shreveport District C (R v R)
Councilman - Shreveport District D

[Kevinstat]

There will be a special election in Maine, as Bangor Rep. Aaron Frey has been nominated as Attorney General. He will ascend to the office in the coming weeks. And we already have people getting ready to run for the seat.

https://twitter.com/mikeshepherdME/status/1070082203663691776

https://twitter.com/bensprague/status/1070124049496457216

In case people are curious, Frey's district was House District 124 (roughly eastern Bangor and western Orono).  It's main predecessor district used in the 2004 through 2010 elections, House District 18, went Republican over the Democratic incumbent from Orono in 2010 (52.99% to 47.01% not counting blanks), but Frey unseated that Republican in 2012 (with Frey getting 57.60% to the Republican's 42.40% not counting blanks).  And that Republican's hometown of Veazie was taken out of the district in 2013 and a more of both Bangor and Orono put in.  The current district still might have gone Republican in 2010 (outside Veazie, the Republican won 50.46% to 49.54% in 2010 not counting blanks, and he carried the Bangor portion, but of course that Republican wouldn't have been eligible to run if his hometown wasn't in the district and the additional territory in both municipalities seems more urban than the old district's portions of those municipalities).  So it's not as Democratic as you might think just going by the municipalities in it, but it still has a definite Democratic lean.

If State Rep. Drew Gattine (D-Westbrook) gets offered a job in the Mills administration or otherwise declines to take the oath of office (he didn't take the oath on Wednesday, but last I checked he hadn't sent a communication whereby he declined to take to oath, so perhaps he could still take it without having to run in a special election if he doesn't get a job he wants), there will also be a special election for State Representative in House District 34 (Westbrook south of the Presumpscot River, not counting the part of the river where the centerline dips back into Westbrook as you're going upstream).  That House district, largely the same from 1994 on (Westbrook has had exactly two House districts since then, but it may gain a partial third district for the 2020s as it's been growing faster than the state recently), has gone Democratic throughout that time and I believe the main southern Westbrook district has been D-held going back into the 1980s at least.  Westbrook has elected Republican mayors before, and I think it voted Republican for State Senate in 2002, but I've heard that the southern part of Westbrook is the more solidly Democratic part.  So it should be a fairly easy Democratic hold if there indeed is a special election there.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First WULFRIC PROJECTION of the Night:

Councilman -- District B, City of Shreveport 
0 of 25 precincts reporting - 0%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
526   LeVette Fuller (DEM)  72%
204   Wendy Vance (REP)  28%
Total: 730

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

374 of 3910 precincts reporting - 10%
absentee reporting - 58 of 64 parishes   Votes
89,404   Kyle Ardoin (REP)  59%
60,897   "Gwen" Collins-Greenup (DEM)  41%
Total: 150,301

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Two more Projections:

State Representative -- 90th Representative District
 
6 of 28 precincts reporting - 21%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
1,887   Mary DuBuisson (REP)  67%
912   John Raymond (REP)  33%
Total: 2,799

Judge -- Civil District Court, Division E
 
63 of 351 precincts reporting - 18%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
8,284   Omar Mason (DEM)  63%
4,802   Marie Williams (DEM)  37%
Total: 13,086

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Another Call:

Mayor -- City of Shreveport
 
24 of 127 precincts reporting - 19%
absentee reporting - 100%   Votes
7,012   Adrian Perkins (DEM)  62%
4,363   Ollie S. Tyler (DEM)  38%
Total: 11,375

The 3 Alderman races and 3 of the 4 Councilman races still TCTC.