State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

[kph14]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

Obama only won by a point here in 2012...

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

Yep, and candidates in state legislative races can credibly try to make these elections not about Trump. That's far less likely to work in the Congressional elections.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

True, I would’ve liked to expand Clinton’s margin here, but it shows that indepdents are strongly on our side for November. Plus, look at the Election Day voting: 13-point advantage for Dems. Great news for us in states like PA that don’t have early in-person voting.

These Cuban districts are still strongly Republican downballot. These wins by Democrats are nothing to sneeze at.

I didn't mention anything about the Cubans. I was talking about the turnout figures and independents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/NewsbySmiley/status/991465447810916353

Lol. I don't want to see any bragging from a Miami dem. While this area is more gop downballot, this should have been a much bigger dem win.

FL dems really need to start organizing.

This was a fine result. Fernandez did better than Murphy 2016, Crist in 2014, and Obama in 2012. He also did better than Daisy Baez did when she flipped this seat in 2016.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol.

It's a sign the Cubanos might be shifting away from the GOP, but it's not definitive proof, and the race will be affected by multiple other factors.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fernandez was endorsed by Joe Biden a few days ago. In the Trump era, Joe's something like 16 to 1 now

The Democrats may want to consider utilizing him in a few of the swing districts, especially in Pennsylvania.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

I love you.

[_]

Florida is Lying, LimoLiberal is correct because he always is.

REEEE ILLEGAL WHITE VOTES

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe I'm missing something, but the precinct map on the county elections website seems utterly incoherent. Like, it doesn't look even remotely contiguous: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/75016/196174/en/pr_zoom.html

[KingSweden]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

I love you.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol. It’s a symptom of the same thing: the environment

Why don't people realize that a ton of republicans are voting D? Just look at AZ-08, lol.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This certainly doesn't look like good news for Curbelo, but it doesn't destroy his chances of pulling out a win.
Florida Democrats don't exactly have a great track record either...

A special election won’t cause Curbelo to do any worse or better in November, lol. It’s a symptom of the same thing: the environment

Why don't people realize that a ton of republicans are voting D? Just look at AZ-08, lol.

In 2006, Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, and Fred Upton all bucked the Democratic wave and won another term. Meanwhile Rick Santorum and Joe Hostetler were blown out by bigger margins than they should have been, on paper.
In a wave some especially strong incumbents will hold on their seats, while some incumbents get completely squashed, worse than you might expect, even taking into account the environment.
Curbelo better pray that his fate will be like that of Gerlach!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   7,894   
46.64%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   8,618   
50.92%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   414   
2.45%
Total    16,926   

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

Democrats have very little of a chance here. This is essentially in the deep red uber-rural areas to the west of Houston.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

I wouldn't expect much excitement here.  Per Ballotpedia, the Republican won 79-21 in 2016.

[Canis]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

Do we have any numbers on that one?

district went 20-77 Trump

[Sestak]

LmaoLiberal. Back to Virginia form, are we? I'm disappointed. Enjoy your week off.

Still don't support banning him. He's much more reasonable than Lear (he did think Lamb would win IIRC), and is actually capable of backing up his slightly hackish predictions. And I want SOMEONE to get owned in November.

[Gass3268]

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Interesting, he underperformed Clinton but still expanded the map.

[Gass3268]