State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Canis]

39 likely r
114 tossup

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those Election Day turnout numbers are good for the Dems, especially in states like Pennsylvania that don’t have early voting.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NPAs historically lean Dem btw

[Oryxslayer]

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018 <- SOS page

[kph14]

Gonna be a close race.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991453052157808640

Dems need around 60% of NPA with these numbers. Looks doable to me

[Mr.Phips]

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

[LimoLiberal]

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

LimoLiberal FTW!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Blue Wave dead y’all

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Republican is up 52%-45% in FL-HD-114.

Looks like this is probably all from the absentee/early vote, based on the totals.

[Canis]

Dem leading with 60% in the 39th

Results are only in from Osceola which went 53-42 clinton nothing from polk yet which went 61-33 trump and has way more voters

[kph14]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

In-person early vote is not in that number. Should be good enough for at least 500 votes in the margin

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

Limo never fails to make everyone laugh

[LimoLiberal]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

[KingSweden]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

Nothing I wrote is wrong either.

[kph14]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

You are insufferable.

Nothing I wrote in that blurb is wrong. The blue wave isn't dead. But it's still a bad loss for Florida democrats, and really casts doubt on the ability to topple Carlos Curbelo.

Matthew Isbell is still calling it a tossup

[Canis]

The polk county dump was way to much for the dem to withstand in 39

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991457134712971265

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll go ahead and make the obvious call:

State Representative, District 39
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   8,810   
61.79%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   5,449   
38.21%
Total    14,259   

--------------

Still plenty to wait for in the other race. According to the display at the top, we don't even have all of the early vote for this race.

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   5,800   
52.15%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   4,993   
44.89%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   329   
2.96%
Total    11,122   

[KingSweden]

The polk county dump was way to much for the dem to withstand in 39

[GeorgiaModerate]

Vargas (R) has won. Still waiting for election day vote, but Democrats can't make up 900 votes in it. At least a 15 point swing right and a demoralizing and humiliating loss for Democrats.

Limo never fails to make everyone laugh

He was amusing for a while, but wore it out a long time ago.

[Strudelcutie4427]

So I saw that chick in the 39 race is only 22. Support her or not, that’s pretty cool

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Not surprised to see dems lose (if it happens). FL dems are terribly organized and Trump way underperformed around Miami compared to a regular R. That's why I am not expecting dems to win FL-25 even though it was only Trump + 1.6

[Theodore]

So I saw that chick in the 39 race is only 22. Support her or not, that’s pretty cool

She will have a big future in politics