State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The 1st, 3rd, 39th, 40th, 41st, 56th and 58th all are possible pickups. Dems just need one.

[Virginiá]

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

I'm thinking that, at best, New York could see a little house cleaning with Republicans over the next two cycles. The Virginia GOP held a decent number of Obama/Clinton seats until 2017, when Democrats were finally able to exploit the unpopular nature of a Republican president and turn voters against basically every politician with an R next to their name - politicians these voters were content to reelect when Obama was crushing the spirits of downballot Democrats during his presidency. It doesn't work the same for all states (as I mentioned before, NJ/NY seem to be resistant somewhat), but usually a change in the White House "shocks" the system and forces trends that existed only at the presidential level to begin developing downballot. Similar to how Bill Clinton and Obama caused mass carnage for Democrats in Southern states, where the local party had still been strong for an absurdly long time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think this would happen in NY - even NJ Democrats performed extremely strongly in the popular vote in 2017 - far better than anytime in possibly decade(s), it's just the seat turnover was poor, maybe because of the legislative maps (?).

Does anyone know what the likely partisan composition of the New York state senate would be under a fair map?

[junior chįmp]

More specifically, why do Republicans in the state Senate overperform so much compared to the Assembly? Assembly Republicans have been powerless since the 70s. Meanwhile, Democrats don't even hold a single Senate seat in Monroe County.

I'm thinking that, at best, New York could see a little house cleaning with Republicans over the next two cycles. The Virginia GOP held a decent number of Obama/Clinton seats until 2017, when Democrats were finally able to exploit the unpopular nature of a Republican president and turn voters against basically every politician with an R next to their name - politicians these voters were content to reelect when Obama was crushing the spirits of downballot Democrats during his presidency. It doesn't work the same for all states (as I mentioned before, NJ/NY seem to be resistant somewhat), but usually a change in the White House "shocks" the system and forces trends that existed only at the presidential level to begin developing downballot. Similar to how Bill Clinton and Obama caused mass carnage for Democrats in Southern states, where the local party had still been strong for an absurdly long time. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think this would happen in NY - even NJ Democrats performed extremely strongly in the popular vote in 2017 - far better than anytime in possibly decade(s), it's just the seat turnover was poor, maybe because of the legislative maps (?).

Does anyone know what the likely partisan composition of the New York state senate would be under a fair map?

A fair map would have on average 38 D seats:

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[Badger]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

[smoltchanov]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

Quite possible. That's how politics is usually conducted in New York....

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority

The last day or two would potentially put your time of seeing that article at Monday. As of Monday, that was indeed the story, but that changed shortly before the polls closed on Tuesday: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/nyregion/simcha-felder-republicans-senate.html

Now, there has been stuff like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/nyregion/cuomo-felder-democrats.html and this: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cuomo-urges-felder-seize-opportunity-rejoin-democrats-article-1.3954399 that makes it clear that Cuomo isn't giving up, but it's more in the context of Cuomo being down on his knees and begging this guy to switch over, not in the context of Felder actually reconsidering.

[junior chįmp]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority.

It makes sense. I'm guessing he realizes that the IDC is, at least temporarily, crumbling and the chances of Republicans somehow keeping there Ultra fragile majority in the next year or two it is unlikely. Therefore he wants to extract his concessions now when they're worth a lot as opposed to in two years when the Democrats hold a 2 or 3 seat majority even without him.

There's no reason for Felder to join the Dems. He has nothing to gain and he can never lose. His district goes through the heart of Jewish Midwood, Boro Park and Flatbush, and has the largest concentration of Jews in N America. If it wasn't for gerrymandering, there would be 2 GOP Jewish districts and a third GOP Catholic district in Bay Ridge and Bensonhurst.

[junior chįmp]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

[UncleSam]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

[junior chįmp]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

Both are districts that voted for Obama twice but then swung toward Trump so it's possible

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Republican South Dakota 32 district house rep Sean McPherson passed away yesterday.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/state-rep-mcpherson-dies-of-cancer/article_67b3e3e9-a52b-5d1f-bf38-42704f2b632f.html

[Theodore]

Republican South Dakota 32 district house rep Sean McPherson passed away yesterday.

http://rapidcityjournal.com/news/state-rep-mcpherson-dies-of-cancer/article_67b3e3e9-a52b-5d1f-bf38-42704f2b632f.html

RIP so young

[Brittain33]

2 more GOP NY State Senators flee:

Hudson Valley Republican John Bonacic won’t run for re-election to the state Senate.

Sen. John DeFrancisco won’t seek re-election to the state Senate in November, according to his spokeswoman.

Cuomomander is so close to being finished

What are the PVIs of those seats? Are they probable D pickups?

Both are districts that voted for Obama twice but then swung toward Trump so it's possible

Looking at the maps, these both look gerrymandered to keep Democratic voters in other neighboring districts. I guess they both stay R unless the NY Senate is heading toward a massive blue wave.

[Oryxslayer]

Today there are 4 specials - 2 in florida and one each in Massachusetts and in South Carolina. Only the Florida ones are contested by both sides though. We should get our results quickly, if  past results are to judge, thankfully.

[LimoLiberal]

Great twitter thread by Politico Florida reporter Marc Caputo on why the Republican is doing so well in HD-114 in Miami-Dade county:

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302217591328770

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302223085953025

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302225451470848

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302230794960897

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/991302235333316608

This is why I have this district as Tossup/Tilt-R. The Democratic organization on the ground seems to be very very weak.

[Holmes]

Sounds like the FL Dems are punting this one as usual.

[LimoLiberal]

Democrats in big trouble here -->

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991350299657895942

[Strudelcutie4427]

What’s the Massachusetts district being contested? The southie-Dorchester one?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What’s the Massachusetts district being contested? The southie-Dorchester one?

First Suffolk district, but the Dem is running unopposed. The South Carolina race is a republican running unopposed.

Florida Results will be here once polls close at 7 ET: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Considering Democrats only gained the 114th in Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin at the same time that Trump was massively underperforming there, it would not particularly surprise me if they don't hold on to this one tonight. Unless either candidate wins in a landslide, I doubt it will tell us much of anything about the congressional elections in South Florida, given that Trump is absolutely going to be a factor in those races.

[Oryxslayer]

Considering Democrats only gained the 114th in Florida in 2016 by a narrow margin at the same time that Trump was massively underperforming there, it would not particularly surprise me if they don't hold on to this one tonight. Unless either candidate wins in a landslide, I doubt it will tell us much of anything about the congressional elections in South Florida, given that Trump is absolutely going to be a factor in those races.

It will be interesting to compare thus to the SD40 race last fall, and see what has changed.

[Mr.Phips]

Im fully expecting Dems to lose FL-HD-114.

[kph14]

Im fully expecting Dems to lose FL-HD-114.

The important election is in November anyway.

[LimoLiberal]

Polls are closed in Florida.

[LimoLiberal]

Gonna be a close race.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/991453052157808640