State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[KingSweden]

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

Yeah, but it was more of a long slog thing. A few here, a few there.

[Oryxslayer]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

[LimoLiberal]

Doran in AD-107 putting up big numbers in Washington and Columbia counties: https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results

If she can keep it close in Rensselaer, D flip.

[Sestak]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

Smith actually overperformed Limo's AD-5 prediction.

[Matty]

I didn't really follow politics closely back then, but were republicans successful at flipping state legislature seats before 2010 midterms?

Yeah, but it was more of a long slog thing. A few here, a few there.

Why are there so so so many more special state legislature elections this year than in 2010?

[GlobeSoc]

Speaking of the 10th. As a LI guy something really werid is going on on the island. It went from serious Trump land in 2016 to resistance territory overnight. Lee Zeldin might seriously lose in November

I suspect that Long Island and Staten Island are where Trump got the closest to getting a personal 'home state' effect.

[Adam Griffin]

Columbia County has started to report in 107:

Doran - 719
Ashby - 354

https://sites.google.com/a/columbiacountyny.com/elections/election_information/election-results/election-night-results

And Washington as well:

Doran - 198
Ashby - 110

https://www.washingtoncountyny.gov/802/Current-Elections-Results

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Doran is up BIG.

61-39%

[Adam Griffin]

In 107 thus far (totals for all 3 counties; 25% reporting):

Doran: 2016 (60.76%)
Ashby: 1293 (38.97%)
Other: 9 (0.27%)

[LimoLiberal]

O'Connor in HD-102 actually does have a path to victory. He needs to net 473 votes from Delaware and the remaining precincts in Albany to offset what's coming from Scoharie. If he does that, he's a winner baby.

[Brittain33]

BTW 5 and 10 are all done. Final margins:

AD5: Smith (R) 2,840 63.06% to Slinkosky (D) 1,658 38.81%

AD10: Stern (D) 5,748 59.12% to Smiteli (R) 3,962 40.82%

That is an incredible differential in turnout! I suppose the Dem didn’t seriously contest AD-5, so the Republican slunk in on Trump-era turnout?

[Adam Griffin]

In 107 thus far (totals for all 3 counties; 31% reporting):

Doran: 2428 (56.96%)
Ashby: 1824 (42.79%)
Other: 11 (0.25%)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

107th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 86,761)   Election Districts Reporting: 104 of 111
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Cynthia Doran   DEM   .   41.01 %   5,840   .   47.96 %   6,829
WOR   .   4.23 %   602           
WEP   .   2.72 %   387           
Jacob C. Ashby   REP   .   36.67 %   5,222   .   51.91 %   7,391
CON   .   10.00 %   1,424           
IND   .   4.60 %   655           
REF      0.63 %   90           
Blank         0.01 %   2      0.01 %   2
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.11 %   16      0.11 %   16
Total Votes   14,239

[LimoLiberal]

Uh-oh. Doran getting 55% of the vote in Columbia county now with a bunch of R precincts dropping. Hillary won the portion of the county in AD-107 53-41. Doran needs to outperform her by more than that to feel safe.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

[Mr.Phips]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

107th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 86,761)   Election Districts Reporting: 104 of 111
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Cynthia Doran   DEM   .   41.01 %   5,840   .   47.96 %   6,829
WOR   .   4.23 %   602           
WEP   .   2.72 %   387           
Jacob C. Ashby   REP   .   36.67 %   5,222   .   51.91 %   7,391
CON   .   10.00 %   1,424           
IND   .   4.60 %   655           
REF      0.63 %   90           
Blank         0.01 %   2      0.01 %   2
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.11 %   16      0.11 %   16
Total Votes   14,239

Wait, what?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

There's no evidence to suggest that it's a glitch.

[LimoLiberal]

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

Nope. No glitch. Doran got massacred in the remaining Rensselaer ballots. She needs to pray that the last 7 Columbia precincts are good for her. O'Connor actually has a chance. He just needs to net a few hundred votes out of Delaware county.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy Christ, that sucks.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

17th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 93,713)   Election Districts Reporting: 83 of 109
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Mathew W. Malin   DEM   .   29.26 %   732   .   32.21 %   806
WOR   .   1.88 %   47           
WEP   .   1.08 %   27           
John K. Mikulin   REP   .   53.72 %   1,344   .   66.75 %   1,670
CON   .   11.31 %   283           
IND   .   1.52 %   38           
REF      0.20 %   5           
Blank         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Void         0.08 %   2      0.08 %   2
Write-in         0.96 %   24      0.96 %   24
Total Votes   2,502

The Dems at 6-3 now, with 102 and 142 outstanding. If both of those go R, Republicans would have a net gain of one seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Finally AD17:

83/109

Malin (D) 32.2% 806

Mikulin (R) 66.75% 1670

[Sestak]

Where is the results page?

[krazen1211]

Ashby has won the 107th district for the GOP.

[LimoLiberal]

Holy Christ, that sucks.

C*ckblock to the extreme in AD-107... I was sure Doran had it. And then her leads evaporated in Rensselaer and Columbia.

[KingSweden]

FFS Wulfric both candidates in 142 are Democrats