Chicago Megathread: With CTU on strike, Lightfoot lays out her budget

[Mr. Illini]

An Obama spokesperson says they will not be endorsing a candidate

https://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/obama-preckwinkle-endorsement-chicago-mayor-507462651.html

[Bidenworth2020]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

[Duke of York]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

that demographic or the election?

[Bidenworth2020]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

that demographic or the election?

that demographic, the election seems all but wrapped up for Lori, no?

[Mr. Illini]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

that demographic or the election?

that demographic, the election seems all but wrapped up for Lori, no?

That has been the consensus. Obama's endorsement could undo that, but it sounds like that isn't happening.

However, if Preckwinkle wins Latinx voters, as you suggest, she just might win. A victory for Lori would be really tough if she doesn't have black or Latinx wards.

[Bidenworth2020]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

that demographic or the election?

that demographic, the election seems all but wrapped up for Lori, no?

That has been the consensus. Obama's endorsement could undo that, but it sounds like that isn't happening.

However, if Preckwinkle wins Latinx voters, as you suggest, she just might win. A victory for Lori would be really tough if she doesn't have black or Latinx wards.

Not necessarily, IMO. I think the runoff will look very similar to the Conyears-Erwin v. Pawar race in March, except Toni does much worse in black wards and northern wards, resulting in a narrower than expected but still convincing 59-41 loss.

[Mr. Illini]

So, how is the Latino vote gonna go? Lightfoot seems to have gotten the important endorsements, but I have a feeling Preckwinkle ends up taking it narrowly.

that demographic or the election?

that demographic, the election seems all but wrapped up for Lori, no?

That has been the consensus. Obama's endorsement could undo that, but it sounds like that isn't happening.

However, if Preckwinkle wins Latinx voters, as you suggest, she just might win. A victory for Lori would be really tough if she doesn't have black or Latinx wards.

Not necessarily, IMO. I think the runoff will look very similar to the Conyears-Erwin v. Pawar race in March, except Toni does much worse in black wards and northern wards, resulting in a narrower than expected but still convincing 59-41 loss.

Kind of like the Kaegi/Berrios map - thin Berrios margins in black and Latinx wards and huge Kaegi margins in white wards = Kaegi wins.

Maybe.

[Mr. Illini]

Another former mayoral candidate for Lightfoot (though he didn’t make the ballot).

Activist Ja’mal Green endorsed this afternoon. Said it’s the right time for Lightfoot and likes her policy proposals. Also noted that having her as Mayor and Toni as President is a win-win.

[Bidenworth2020]

Another former mayoral candidate for Lightfoot (though he didn’t make the ballot).

Activist Ja’mal Green endorsed this afternoon. Said it’s the right time for Lightfoot and likes her policy proposals. Also noted that having her as Mayor and Toni as President is a win-win.

Has Daley made an endorsement?

[Donerail]

Another former mayoral candidate for Lightfoot (though he didn’t make the ballot).

Activist Ja’mal Green endorsed this afternoon. Said it’s the right time for Lightfoot and likes her policy proposals. Also noted that having her as Mayor and Toni as President is a win-win.

Has Daley made an endorsement?

No, but Bill is Bill. The Daleys that matter have endorsed Preckwinkle.

[Bidenworth2020]

Another former mayoral candidate for Lightfoot (though he didn’t make the ballot).

Activist Ja’mal Green endorsed this afternoon. Said it’s the right time for Lightfoot and likes her policy proposals. Also noted that having her as Mayor and Toni as President is a win-win.

Has Daley made an endorsement?

No, but Bill is Bill. The Daleys that matter have endorsed Preckwinkle.

Richard Daley did? Have to imagine that would have been a bigger deal.

[Donerail]

No, but Bill is Bill. The Daleys that matter have endorsed Preckwinkle.

Richard Daley did? Have to imagine that would have been a bigger deal.

Richard Daley died in 1976. Rich Daley hasn't been seen in this town in years. Again, the Daleys that actually matter -- the ones who command votes -- have endorsed Preckwinkle.

[Bidenworth2020]

No, but Bill is Bill. The Daleys that matter have endorsed Preckwinkle.

Richard Daley did? Have to imagine that would have been a bigger deal.

Richard Daley died in 1976. Rich Daley hasn't been seen in this town in years. Again, the Daleys that actually matter -- the ones who command votes -- have endorsed Preckwinkle.

I was talking about jr.

[Donerail]

Richard Daley died in 1976. Rich Daley hasn't been seen in this town in years. Again, the Daleys that actually matter -- the ones who command votes -- have endorsed Preckwinkle.

I was talking about jr.

He does some sort of lobbying/law thing now? Theoretically has a speaking gig here fairly regularly, but I've never seen him. He is thoroughly out of politics.

[Bidenworth2020]

Richard Daley died in 1976. Rich Daley hasn't been seen in this town in years. Again, the Daleys that actually matter -- the ones who command votes -- have endorsed Preckwinkle.

I was talking about jr.

He does some sort of lobbying/law thing now? Theoretically has a speaking gig here fairly regularly, but I've never seen him. He is thoroughly out of politics.

Interesting, I was thinking his endorsement could make a difference.

[Donerail]

He does some sort of lobbying/law thing now? Theoretically has a speaking gig here fairly regularly, but I've never seen him. He is thoroughly out of politics.

Interesting, I was thinking his endorsement could make a difference.

Not directly -- Chicago is a city of organizations, not leaders. When someone like Chuy Garcia endorses, it's not a big deal because he's personally popular. It's a big deal because (or so we thought until recently) he has a group of supporters who can deliver a ton of votes. To the extent Rich Daley still has that, it's the 11th Ward RDO, which is for Preckwinkle, and various loosely connected elites, who are mostly for Lightfoot.

[PSOL]

He does some sort of lobbying/law thing now? Theoretically has a speaking gig here fairly regularly, but I've never seen him. He is thoroughly out of politics.

Interesting, I was thinking his endorsement could make a difference.

Not directly -- Chicago is a city of organizations, not leaders. When someone like Chuy Garcia endorses, it's not a big deal because he's personally popular. It's a big deal because (or so we thought until recently) he has a group of supporters who can deliver a ton of votes. To the extent Rich Daley still has that, it's the 11th Ward RDO, which is for Preckwinkle, and various loosely connected elites, who are mostly for Lightfoot.

So who has the most potent and/or numerically superior support of questionable endorsements.

[Mr. Illini]

Activists have launched a #StopLightfoot campaign on social media surrounding her work on the Police Board. They even have a website: https://www.stoplightfoot.com/

Obviously there is a lot to unpack, but I think their best case against her has always centered on her work in police oversight.

One thing they love to say is that she has been in the field of police accountability for a long time and is therefore "responsible" for the state of policing in the city. I don't buy this at all. One person is not responsible for the state of policing, especially given our city's long history and entrenched culture of police misconduct. That said, if one person even were to be responsible, it would be a Mayor or Superintendent.

They are very critical of her time leading the Police Board. I give a lot of stock to this, as they were the ones that dealt with her directly during that time, at a time when I had not even heard of her yet.

A qualm I have with their portrayal - they constantly say she had a "pattern of going easy on cops." If by "pattern" they mean several occasions, it is likely true. But if by "pattern" they mean a trend over her tenure, it is not true. In the years leading up to her tenure, the Police Board fired officers (already recommended for firing by the Superintendent) at an abysmal rate in the mid-30 percentage range. In her years heading the Board, that percentage doubled into the mid-70s.

One case that I think they are 100% correct on is the case of Rekia Boyd. Dante Servin, who killed Rekia, escaped prosecution because he was undercharged by Anita Alvarez (many claim intentionally). The judge said he should be tried for murder but couldn't be charged for manslaughter. A gross and sickening miscarriage of justice. Even so, IPRA and Superintendent McCarthy took their time recommending a firing (they have to do so before the Police Board gets it). Once the Police Board took the case, they waited 6 months before scheduling a hearing on it. Two days before the hearing, Servin decided to resign (with full pension) instead of facing the board.

This is a case that has me up at night. I am not familiar with the average time it takes the Police Board to hear a case, but I can't explain why it would take 6 months on such a high profile case that so clearly merited a firing. Lori has never really explained it in detail, either.

Interested to hear thoughts, particularly from sjoyce.

[Mr. Illini]

Some endorsements this morning:

Susana Mendoza for Lightfoot
Bobby Rush for Preckwinkle

Since there were stones being thrown re: former Daley backers going to Lightfoot, I’d note that Rush endorsed Daley in the first round.

[Continential]

Some endorsements this morning:

Susana Mendoza for Lightfoot
Bobby Rush for Preckwinkle

Since there were stones being thrown re: former Daley backers going to Lightfoot, I’d note that Rush endorsed Daley in the first round.

Funny that Rush endorsed someone who endorsed Obama in 2000.

[Donerail]

Funny that Rush endorsed someone who endorsed Obama in 2000.

Rush is... a funny guy. Started out as one of the higher-ups in the state chapter of the Panthers, ended up endorsing Bill Daley because he has "a great brand, like Nike."

Anyway, I don't have much of a #take on Lightfoot's past with the police board -- my main issues with her are her donors, her stance on rent control and her plans for all the closed schools.

[Mr. Illini]

Funny that Rush endorsed someone who endorsed Obama in 2000.

Rush is... a funny guy. Started out as one of the higher-ups in the state chapter of the Panthers, ended up endorsing Bill Daley because he has "a great brand, like Nike."

Anyway, I don't have much of a #take on Lightfoot's past with the police board -- my main issues with her are her donors, her stance on rent control and her plans for all the closed schools.

Toni actually hasn't taken a stance on implementing rent control. She's been very careful and clear that her position is that the state should allow communities to do it if they choose - not that she actually favors doing it.

All in all, you can tell I can't wait for 4/2 to be behind us.

[Mr. Illini]

I view it as a way to appease people like Guzzardi (ppl that it is a dealbreaker for) without making any real commitment.

Kind of the theme of her campaign, tbh.

[Continential]

Who is Lightfoot supporters supporting mainly in the Treasurer election.

[Mr. Illini]

Who is Lightfoot supporters supporting mainly in the Treasurer election.

I think there’s nuance to it. Lightfoot and Pawar will both get huge margins on the north side. I expect Preckwinkle and MCE to win black wards - MCE with huge margins and narrower for Toni. Lightfoot and MCE will win police/fire hoods on the far NW/SW sides. Latinx wards are less clear - if I had to guess, I’d say Lightfoot and MCE, both with pretty narrow margins.

Overall, a loose correlation between support for Lori and Ameya.