2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Xing]

RNC members opened up to the Washington Examiner that the house is outmanned and outgunned heading into November and that donors are abandoning the house to save the senate https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/gop-gloom-republicans-predict-house-majority-will-be-swept-away-by-democratic-spending-tsunami?_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Clearly that's what Republicans WANT us to think, and they're actually going to hold the house easily!!! #TwelveAndAHalfDimensionalChess

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yeah I mean 4 million dollars in Louisville’s media market would be obnoxious spending. McGrath doesn’t need to spend it all to win.

It is Lexington, should be even cheaper than Louisville.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1047545446997012480

Things might be tightening up in Katko's seat.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1047545446997012480

Things might be tightening up in Katko's seat.

of course they are. He is in a D PVI seat, and there isnt a minority problem like in TX. All you need to do is soil his popularity, and you have a pickup, and it seems like thats the game plan.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1047545446997012480

Things might be tightening up in Katko's seat.

of course they are. He is in a D PVI seat, and there isnt a minority problem like in TX. All you need to do is soil his popularity, and you have a pickup, and it seems like thats the game plan.

Strong incumbents losing in wave years against their party is normal too (see: Lincoln Chafee in 2006, a lot of our House incumbents in 2010 had positive favourables a week before the election but got BTFO)

[Gass3268]

Danny O'Connor (D) OH-12: $6 million

$2.3 million came after they special election.

[ON Progressive]

Kendra Horn (D in OK-05) has raised $420k. Most any Dem has raised in a quarter there since 2002 redraw.

[Ebsy]

Perry Gerson in NY-01 (Zeldin) raised 1.5 million.

Tracy Mitrano in NY-23 (Reed) raised 950k.

Big numbers from all over New York it seems.

[Oryxslayer]

Cook just adjusted basically every "strong incumbent" seat towards the dems...except TX-21. Also PA-17 for good measure.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1047598574576517121

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1047599295673901057

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1047599562221936640

[Gass3268]

*gasps* FL-26!! But muh Curbelo!

[Ebsy]

There are now 14 GOP held seats at Lean or Likely D. That would require Democrats only win 10 of the 29 GOP held Toss ups and 25 GOP Lean R seats.

[OneJ]

*gasps* FL-26!! But muh Curbelo!

[Landslide Lyndon]

I haven't seen a poll from the Utah race for a while. Has Wasserman learned that McAdams finally caught up with Love?

[Yank2133]

*gasps* FL-26!! But muh Curbelo!

More evidence that candidate quality doesn't matter when the environment sucks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

B-but the whole Kavanaugh fiasco destroyed the Dem's chances !!

[Hindsight was 2020]

B-but the whole Kavanaugh fiasco destroyed the Dem's chances !!

In the Senate, yes

The senate was a long shot anyway also a 50-50 tie would be fine

[Progressive Pessimist]

B-but the whole Kavanaugh fiasco destroyed the Dem's chances !!

It was all Diane Feinstein's fault for...whatever it was that she apparently did!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

B-but the whole Kavanaugh fiasco destroyed the Dem's chances !!

In the Senate, yes

The Senate was always going to end up being 51-49 or even 50-50. The notion that Kavanaugh was going to hurt the Dems in the house races, especially in suburban districts which are driven by white college-educated voters, was always ridiculous.

[Adam Griffin]

So, it's been bothering me for the past day or so. This week, Trump has visited three states: WV, TN & MS. We all know that these 3 states under normal conditions are strong GOP bastions, and we of course know that TN & WV have competitive Senate races in states Trump won by hefty margins.

So what's Trump doing in MS a month before the election? I know there's a belief that he just likes to have rallies in places where he has lots of fans, but every other aspect of his recent tour makes logistical and strategic sense - especially since we're so close to the election. I wonder if they're seeing movement in the special Senate race that suggests his presence is needed...

[GeorgiaModerate]

So, it's been bothering me for the past day or so. This week, Trump has visited three states: WV, TN & MS. We all know that these 3 states under normal conditions are strong GOP bastions, and we of course know that TN & WV have competitive Senate races in states Trump won by hefty margins.

So what's Trump doing in MS a month before the election? I know there's a belief that he just likes to have rallies in places where he has lots of fans, but every other aspect of his recent tour makes logistical and strategic sense - especially since we're so close to the election. I wonder if they're seeing movement in the special Senate race that suggests his presence is needed...

Here's another twist on that: what if Trump's rally boosts turnout for McDaniel (clearly a more Trumpish candidate than Hyde-Smith) and pushes McDaniel into a runoff with Espy?

[Bidenworth2020]

So, it's been bothering me for the past day or so. This week, Trump has visited three states: WV, TN & MS. We all know that these 3 states under normal conditions are strong GOP bastions, and we of course know that TN & WV have competitive Senate races in states Trump won by hefty margins.

So what's Trump doing in MS a month before the election? I know there's a belief that he just likes to have rallies in places where he has lots of fans, but every other aspect of his recent tour makes logistical and strategic sense - especially since we're so close to the election. I wonder if they're seeing movement in the special Senate race that suggests his presence is needed...

Here's another twist on that: what if Trump's rally boosts turnout for McDaniel (clearly a more Trumpish candidate than Hyde-Smith) and pushes McDaniel into a runoff with Espy?

he never mentioned McDaniel, and mentioned Hyde smith a ton of times, so I don't see how those two correlate

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL RCP has NM-1 at Likely D. What a joke

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So, it's been bothering me for the past day or so. This week, Trump has visited three states: WV, TN & MS. We all know that these 3 states under normal conditions are strong GOP bastions, and we of course know that TN & WV have competitive Senate races in states Trump won by hefty margins.

So what's Trump doing in MS a month before the election? I know there's a belief that he just likes to have rallies in places where he has lots of fans, but every other aspect of his recent tour makes logistical and strategic sense - especially since we're so close to the election. I wonder if they're seeing movement in the special Senate race that suggests his presence is needed...

Here's another twist on that: what if Trump's rally boosts turnout for McDaniel (clearly a more Trumpish candidate than Hyde-Smith) and pushes McDaniel into a runoff with Espy?

he never mentioned McDaniel, and mentioned Hyde smith a ton of times, so I don't see how those two correlate

So what? He endorsed Luther Strange and look what happened to him

[Hindsight was 2020]

This is why the freak out today over “voter enthusiasm” is annoying me so much. The numbers aren’t telling that story https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1047690408984301569

[Florida Man for Crime]

Crystal ball ratings changes:

Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes

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These mostly seem right, but behind the curve