2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 173747 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #875 on: July 11, 2018, 05:19:27 PM »

It's really odd how well this fits. Is there any logic behind it whatsoever?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #876 on: July 11, 2018, 05:51:33 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 11, 2018, 05:19:27 PM

It's really odd how well this fits. Is there any logic behind it whatsoever?

One thing I've noticed is that many of the rises for the White House Party tend to happen around holidays.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #877 on: July 11, 2018, 08:52:35 PM »
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #878 on: July 11, 2018, 09:06:07 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 11, 2018, 08:52:35 PM


Wew lad Beto's campaign is going to be a force of nature, regardless of if he wins
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #879 on: July 11, 2018, 09:24:22 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 11, 2018, 08:52:35 PM


wow
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #880 on: July 11, 2018, 09:24:53 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 11, 2018, 08:52:35 PM


Beto will win...if not 2018, then 2020
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Virginiá
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« Reply #881 on: July 11, 2018, 09:33:25 PM »
I have to say, I was a bit worried when he said he wasn't going to fill up a PAC, but this is working out very nicely. Even more excited to hear he is investing bigly in GOTV and forgoing the usual consultant-driven money bonfire via TV ads.

Blue heart Beto
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IceSpear
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« Reply #882 on: July 11, 2018, 09:34:27 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on July 11, 2018, 09:33:25 PM
I have to say, I was a bit worried when he said he wasn't going to fill up a PAC, but this is working out very nicely. Even more excited to hear he is investing bigly in GOTV and forgoing the usual consultant-driven money bonfire via TV ads.

Blue heart Beto

Wait, putting more than one Purple heart changes its color? lol

Yellow heart

Mind blown.

Green heart
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #883 on: July 11, 2018, 09:35:14 PM »
Quote from: Virginia on July 11, 2018, 09:33:25 PM
I have to say, I was a bit worried when he said he wasn't going to fill up a PAC, but this is working out very nicely. Even more excited to hear he is investing bigly in GOTV and forgoing the usual consultant-driven money bonfire via TV ads.

Blue heart Beto

I might be going to a rally for him on monday, I am excited if so.
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Doimper
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« Reply #884 on: July 11, 2018, 11:27:23 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 11, 2018, 08:52:35 PM


Democrats in disarray.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #885 on: July 12, 2018, 10:05:23 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 11, 2018, 05:19:27 PM

It's really odd how well this fits. Is there any logic behind it whatsoever?

Survivorship bias could be an explanation. There are lots of graphs like this that get made, but only the ones that turn out to seem to fit get shared on twitter.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #886 on: July 12, 2018, 11:31:12 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 11, 2018, 05:19:27 PM

It's really odd how well this fits. Is there any logic behind it whatsoever?
Im pretty sure there is no logic behind this, rather, it just has three parts that line up.
1. A large increase in the GB, and then it receeds
2. A large recede before trending towards a party
3. Large swaths of little to no change
Its important to note that the large dip was due to the tax bill, which was a rather independent factor.

I would not rely on past trends for this election. Many undecideds are still there, and the GCB is rather large for this point. I would just look at the CGB in Sept. and Oct. and then see what occurs.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #887 on: July 12, 2018, 01:08:08 PM »
Tom Malinowski (NJ-07) raised $1.3 million in Q2.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-raises-1-3-million-in-three-months/
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ajc0918
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« Reply #888 on: July 12, 2018, 01:27:41 PM »

New Jersey GOP will regret their dummymander.

The blue wave is building and Lyin' Leo will surely be swept out to sea. Lean D.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #889 on: July 12, 2018, 01:29:51 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 12, 2018, 01:27:41 PM

New Jersey GOP will regret their dummymander.

The blue wave is building and Lyin' Leo will surely be swept out to sea. Lean D.

Why do you think it is a dummymander? Under the current lines, unless we have a real realignment, NJ-5, -7, and -11 would all have a good chance to flip back to Republican in a reasonable year.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #890 on: July 12, 2018, 01:34:35 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on July 12, 2018, 01:29:51 PM
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 12, 2018, 01:27:41 PM

New Jersey GOP will regret their dummymander.

The blue wave is building and Lyin' Leo will surely be swept out to sea. Lean D.

Why do you think it is a dummymander? Under the current lines, unless we have a real realignment, NJ-5, -7, and -11 would all have a good chance to flip back to Republican in a reasonable year.

Scary thing for Republicans is that bipartisan redistricting committees tend to emphasis incumbent protection. 
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #891 on: July 13, 2018, 08:57:22 AM »


Pretty interesting changes from Cook.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #892 on: July 13, 2018, 08:59:19 AM »
My man Jared Golden coming in hot
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ajc0918
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« Reply #893 on: July 13, 2018, 09:03:32 AM »
Vern Buchanan in FL-16 is in trouble. Any money he spent on tv ads just went down the drain with the coverage of him purchasing a $3M yacht the same day the GOP Tax Bill passed. He will still likely win but hopefully has to work for it.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #894 on: July 13, 2018, 09:08:53 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 13, 2018, 09:03:32 AM
Vern Buchanan in FL-16 is in trouble. Any money he spent on tv ads just went down the drain with the coverage of him purchasing a $3M yacht the same day the GOP Tax Bill passed. He will still likely win but hopefully has to work for it.

Oof did he really? That’s... not a good headline.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #895 on: July 13, 2018, 09:10:54 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on July 13, 2018, 09:08:53 AM
Quote from: ajc0918 on July 13, 2018, 09:03:32 AM
Vern Buchanan in FL-16 is in trouble. Any money he spent on tv ads just went down the drain with the coverage of him purchasing a $3M yacht the same day the GOP Tax Bill passed. He will still likely win but hopefully has to work for it.

Oof did he really? That’s... not a good headline.

Yep.

Report: Vern Buchanan bought yacht on the same day he voted for tax bill
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https://www.bradenton.com/news/politics-government/article214766330.htm
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #896 on: July 13, 2018, 09:12:42 AM »
Sidenote but Illinois now has IL06, IL12, IL13, and IL14 in toss up or lean territory.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #897 on: July 13, 2018, 09:13:43 AM »

Cook becomes the first prognosticator to move this seat to a toss up.

Spreadsheet of all the major House Prognosticators
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Jeppe
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« Reply #898 on: July 13, 2018, 09:54:23 AM »
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on July 13, 2018, 09:12:42 AM
Sidenote but Illinois now has IL06, IL12, IL13, and IL14 in toss up or lean territory.

Yep, despite all the talk of New Jersey & Orange County being battlefields, Illinois has a treasure trove of competitive seats too.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #899 on: July 13, 2018, 10:08:09 AM »
Quote from: Jeppe on July 13, 2018, 09:54:23 AM
Quote from: Hindsight is 2020 on July 13, 2018, 09:12:42 AM
Sidenote but Illinois now has IL06, IL12, IL13, and IL14 in toss up or lean territory.

Yep, despite all the talk of New Jersey & Orange County being battlefields, Illinois has a treasure trove of competitive seats too.

The Rauner drag should help there...
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