2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[MT Treasurer]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Way too generous to Republicans in NV and AZ, but other than that these ratings are fine (and a lot better than Cook's), though WV, ND and MT could certainly be moved to Lean D and OH and WI to Likely D. And TN is probably a Tossup at this point.

[Bidenworth2020]

Daily Kos Elections now has senate rankings, though they are basically the same as everyone else's. Remember, DKE and DK are basically two seperate things: DK are Extreme Hacks, DKE is mainly data analysis from a normal left view, similar to RRH's analysis from the normal right.

Way too generous to Republicans in NV and AZ, but other than that these ratings are fine (and a lot better than Cook's), though WV, ND and MT could certainly be moved to Lean D and OH and WI to Likely D. And TN is probably a Tossup at this point.

please stop the concern trolling. ND is likely d at the very least

[Bidenworth2020]

please stop the concern trolling. ND is likely d at the very least

You need to look up the definition of "concern trolling" before throwing around that term on a regular basis. I agree with you that Heitkamp is underrated, but Lean D is probably closer to reality than Safe D if you’re only using three categories (Tossup, Lean, Safe).

sure, but why aren't you using likely?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The only people I know of who have the seat as lean dem right now are obvious dem hacks.

I mean, it’s not really that absurd to rate it Lean D, especially given that Manchin will win the district easily against Morrisey. If Ojeda wins this year (which is certainly possible), he might run against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020 and make that race competitive, so Republicans need to take this race very seriously.

You think someone could get Manchin to attach a question for Ojeda in WV 3rd for his next internal? A la reversal Jim Banks?

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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[KingSweden]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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More vulnerable than Hurd?

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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More vulnerable than Hurd?

Cook still has TX-23 as Lean R.

[KingSweden]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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More vulnerable than Hurd?

Cook still has TX-23 as Lean R.

I don’t find 23 as Lean R and 32 as Tossup as justifiable

[Bidenworth2020]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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looks like bagel was onto something

[Gass3268]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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More vulnerable than Hurd?

Cook still has TX-23 as Lean R.

I don’t find 23 as Lean R and 32 as Tossup as justifiable

They also have 7 as a toss up as well. Really odd.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It would be nice to get some polling...

[IceSpear]

That feel when Fox News has the best Senate ratings, lol.

[Maxwell]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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wow i didn't even have this one flipping. looks like its on my list now.

[Politician]

Do you find it interesting that all the "experts" have NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, and FL as tossups? They can't ever say a Democrat is favored, lol.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cook Political Report moves TX-32 to Toss Up

Wasserman writes:

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looks like bagel was onto something

Indeed, it will be close. Dynamics and such have changed over the past 18 months. Don't just take my word for it.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

[Politician]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

Florida is justifiable because of Rick Scott, but Wisconsin is absolutely Likely or Safe D. Lear and Sabato both ignore candidate quality (unless it's a Republican candidate of course) and fawn over presidential results.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

Florida is justifiable because of Rick Scott, but Wisconsin is absolutely Likely or Safe D. Lear and Sabato both ignore candidate quality (unless it's a Republican candidate of course) and fawn over presidential results.

If anything, Rick Scott is a weak candidate who will do worse against Bill Nelson than almost any other Republican would.

[junior chįmp]

Think about this: For Wisconsin and Florida, Sabato Crystal Ball has the same Senate ratings for those states that King Lear had.

Florida is justifiable because of Rick Scott, but Wisconsin is absolutely Likely or Safe D. Lear and Sabato both ignore candidate quality (unless it's a Republican candidate of course) and fawn over presidential results.

If anything, Rick Scott is a weak candidate who will do worse against Bill Nelson than almost any other Republican would.

I dont agree with this at all. I wouldnt be surprised if Nelson only wins by 1%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol this article was written June 17th, it's writing as if it's still May...

http://www.kitv.com/story/38443700/recent-special-elections-suggest-democrats-may-not-ride-a-wave-in-november

[Virginiá]

Lol this article was written June 17th, it's writing as if it's still May...

http://www.kitv.com/story/38443700/recent-special-elections-suggest-democrats-may-not-ride-a-wave-in-november

I'm curious how the locations of the special elections in each year compare. Not all states that have had special elections see equal swings, and 2018 hasn't featured the same set of special elections as 2017. Off the top of my head, and I could be wrong, but I think Florida saw some weak performances (compared to the rest of the country), whereas some of the strongest backlashes appear to be areas that swung hard to Trump in 2016, such as the Midwest. Wisconsin is a good example of that, and true to form, delivered a pretty strong performance in the state Senate seat special.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol this article was written June 17th, it's writing as if it's still May...

http://www.kitv.com/story/38443700/recent-special-elections-suggest-democrats-may-not-ride-a-wave-in-november

I'm curious how the locations of the special elections in each year compare. Not all states that have had special elections see equal swings, and 2018 hasn't featured the same set of special elections as 2017. Off the top of my head, and I could be wrong, but I think Florida saw some weak performances (compared to the rest of the country), whereas some of the strongest backlashes appear to be areas that swung hard to Trump in 2016, such as the Midwest. Wisconsin is a good example of that, and true to form, delivered a pretty strong performance in the state Senate seat special.

It's funny how the editor cited special elections in Arkansas but completely ignored Caleb Frostman's victory last week.

[MAINEiac4434]

Somehow we all missed that ROCKY DE LA FUENTE IS RUNNING FOR SENATE IN WYOMING

http://kgab.com/former-presidential-candidate-files-in-wyoming-u-s-senate-race/

[Arkansas Yankee]

Here are some folks who thing the GOP might grab a Senate seat in Minnesota:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/blue-wave-not-where-i-live.php

Just to give some of indigestion and give some of you the opportunity rage against me and call me names. 

[Virginiá]

Here are some folks who thing the GOP might grab a Senate seat in Minnesota:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/06/blue-wave-not-where-i-live.php

Just to give some of indigestion and give some of you the opportunity rage against me and call me names.  

I'll take a stab:

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1. It's not even anymore and it hasn't been for week(s). It's back to D+7 - D+8, depending on the aggregator. By the time the wider public started picking up on the narrative that the Democratic advantage was waning, it had already shifted violently back to where it was pre-decline. It did that so fast that apparently people like this author didn't even notice. Since Trump was elected, the most stable numbers for the GCB is D+7. The December tsunami numbers and the Republican surge of early 2018 were outliers. The stable numbers still point to a 2006-level wave, give or take.

2. Whenever reading partisan articles or analyses, always, always doubt those who say the party that controls the White House is going to have a wave, particularly when the overwhelming narrative of late has been that the out party is going to have a wave.

The party that controls the White House tends to lose grounds in midterms for a number of reasons, but it's a very accurate assumption because in virtually every midterm it has been the case. The only times it isn't is when the incumbent president is super popular - like 60%+ approvals, which Clinton and GWB were above in 1998 and 2002, respectively. The only other time I imagine it would happen is a major realignment like the Great Depression, and even then, I suspect whatever president is riding that realignment would be massively popular.

Point being that if a Republican president is in office and Joe Blow Republican says this midterm will be a R wave, laughter is appropriate. He's blinded by partisanship and probably doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. The same applies to Democrats when a Democratic president is in office.

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I mean, I'll let someone else with more knowledge of MN politics (and Smith) answer that directly, but conservatives are always calling every Democrat some hardcore liberal or flat out socialist. It's not accurate at all most of the time. Some of the people conservative pundits call commies or socialists would not pass the smell test with actual socialists. Not even remotely.


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This guy seems to be relying on anecdotal evidence (and what appear to be large partisan bias?) in whatever analysis he's making about the general climate. There is a reason anecdotal evidence should be treated as worthless. What if this guy just happens to live in a super conservative area of Minnesota? Or perhaps just a neighborhood? To him, it looks like everything is fine, but it really isn't. Or perhaps he lives in a more neutral area but for some reason he only seems to remember the things that back his idea of what it "should" be.

This is why relying on actual data is best. Not someone's feels.