2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 173176 times)
wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #550 on: June 11, 2018, 10:55:39 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on June 11, 2018, 09:32:50 AM
Tennessee being on here means that Dems still have hopes for Bredesen

Why wouldn't Dems have hopes for Bredesen? I know Atlas is massively skeptical of him but y'all are acting like he's DOA like Bayh when he's shown no indication of being anywhere near weak.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #551 on: June 11, 2018, 11:08:12 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on June 11, 2018, 10:55:39 AM
Quote from: RubioRepublican on June 11, 2018, 09:32:50 AM
Tennessee being on here means that Dems still have hopes for Bredesen

Why wouldn't Dems have hopes for Bredesen? I know Atlas is massively skeptical of him but y'all are acting like he's DOA like Bayh when he's shown no indication of being anywhere near weak.
Even Trump conceded in a private dinner to donors that Bredesen is giving them a very tough fight
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Gass3268
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« Reply #552 on: June 11, 2018, 02:04:59 PM »






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KingSweden
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« Reply #553 on: June 11, 2018, 04:37:11 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 11, 2018, 09:34:18 AM
Quote from: JG on June 11, 2018, 09:28:34 AM
Quote from: heatcharger on June 11, 2018, 08:55:13 AM


Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!

Interesting list of states. Looks like they aren't too worried about Ohio, which is a great sign.

Same list as McConnell from a few weeks ago. Missing are Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and the secondary seats in Mississippi and Minnesota. It appears obvious where the battle for the senate will be fought.

I think it’s pretty clear that if Beto flips Texas, it’ll be on his own without any air support

(I don’t think he’s winning, btw)
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Virginiá
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« Reply #554 on: June 11, 2018, 05:37:48 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on June 11, 2018, 04:37:11 PM
I think it’s pretty clear that if Beto flips Texas, it’ll be on his own without any air support

(I don’t think he’s winning, btw)

And if he barely loses, it'll lay the groundwork for an internal feud over how the party blew even more gains, particularly if they just miss a Senate majority.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #555 on: June 11, 2018, 05:43:05 PM »
Beto, maybe smartly maybe not, has actively tried to push away national Super PAC help.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #556 on: June 11, 2018, 05:58:48 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2018, 09:58:59 PM by Virginia »

I'd be interested in seeing change vs 2014 as a chart based on that
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KingSweden
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« Reply #557 on: June 11, 2018, 06:10:28 PM »
« Edited: June 11, 2018, 09:59:32 PM by Virginia »

The big question is how “interest” translates to turnout in November
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #558 on: June 11, 2018, 07:13:58 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on June 11, 2018, 05:43:05 PM
Beto, maybe smartly maybe not, has actively tried to push away national Super PAC help.

I'm pretty sure that he wants to keep national Democrats at arms length, like Doug Jones and Connor Lamb did.
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JG
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« Reply #559 on: June 11, 2018, 07:25:33 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 11, 2018, 07:13:58 PM
Quote from: Maxwell on June 11, 2018, 05:43:05 PM
Beto, maybe smartly maybe not, has actively tried to push away national Super PAC help.

I'm pretty sure that he wants to keep national Democrats at arms length, like Doug Jones and Connor Lamb did.

I might remember wrong, but I'm pretty sure both Jones and Lamb accepted money from the DSCC and DCCC respectively.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #560 on: June 12, 2018, 03:54:45 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on March 21, 2018, 08:39:02 AM
PPP has more numbers in Senate races.

-Sinema up 5 over McSally.
-Casey up 18 over Barletta lol
-Baldwin up 12 over Nicholson
-Rosen up 5 over Heller
-Bredesen up 5 over Blackum.

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf


Honestly, never would have thought I'd see NV and TN with the same margin for the same party, but hey.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #561 on: June 12, 2018, 08:30:25 AM »
CNN rating changes: https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/12/politics/cnn-house-key-races-june-update/index.html

CA-10 Lean R -> Tossup
CA-39 Lean D -> Tossup
CA-50 Likely R -> Solid R
FL-25 Solid R -> Likely R
NJ-11 Tossup -> Lean D
TX-31 Solid R -> Likely R
WI-07 Likely R -> Solid R

Their totals:

Solid D 180
Likely D 11 (currently 9D/2R)
Lean D 11 (4D/7R)
Tossup 22 (2D/20R)
Lean R 24 (0D/24R)
Likely R 28 (0D/28R)
Solid R 159
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KingSweden
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« Reply #562 on: June 12, 2018, 10:13:55 AM »
Only really quibble I have is CA-39, which probably should have been Tossup all along
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Gass3268
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« Reply #563 on: June 12, 2018, 11:18:15 AM »


CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #564 on: June 12, 2018, 11:52:25 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 12, 2018, 11:18:15 AM


CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #565 on: June 12, 2018, 01:58:44 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 12, 2018, 11:52:25 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 12, 2018, 11:18:15 AM


CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« Reply #566 on: June 12, 2018, 05:08:33 PM »
Quote from: X Marks The Spot on June 12, 2018, 01:58:44 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 12, 2018, 11:52:25 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 12, 2018, 11:18:15 AM


CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 

Randy Bryce is literally the favorite to win the race.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #567 on: June 12, 2018, 05:14:20 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on June 12, 2018, 05:08:33 PM
Quote from: X Marks The Spot on June 12, 2018, 01:58:44 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 12, 2018, 11:52:25 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on June 12, 2018, 11:18:15 AM


CA-04 is the most interesting inclusion here to me.

MO-02 and NY-11 are also strange picks, though on could argue NY-11 already looks like it will be an interesting race post-primary. There are a few interesting districts that are missing: WA-08, anything from Florida, IL-12, IL-14, KS-02, KY-06, VA-10, NJ-02, NJ-07, and ME-02 to name a few.

The only questionable pick I'm seeing is WI-01.  CA-04 is a potential sleeper race as McClintock is a very weak and extremely right-wing incumbent who (IIRC) carpetbagged all the way up from LA to run here in 2008.  Plus, there seemed to be an exceptionally strong backlash here against the attempt to repeal Obamacare. 

Randy Bryce is literally the favorite to win the race.

In what way?
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Jeppe
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« Reply #568 on: June 13, 2018, 08:31:41 AM »
Very early days, but I heard that Jim Clyburn is retiring from his seat (SC-06) in 2020, so that his daughter, Mignon Clyburn, an FCC commissioner whose term is expiring this year, can run for his seat and receive a ton of endorsements/support from presidential hopefuls jockeying for Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

Mignon herself said that she was headed back to South Carolina to pursue public service in another form, so, it looks likely that the seat will stay in the Clyburn family for at least a few more terms.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #569 on: June 13, 2018, 12:13:12 PM »
« Edited: June 13, 2018, 12:29:11 PM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: Jeppe on June 13, 2018, 08:31:41 AM
Very early days, but I heard that Jim Clyburn is retiring from his seat (SC-06) in 2020, so that his daughter, Mignon Clyburn, an FCC commissioner whose term is expiring this year, can run for his seat and receive a ton of endorsements/support from presidential hopefuls jockeying for Jim Clyburn's endorsement.

Mignon herself said that she was headed back to South Carolina to pursue public service in another form, so, it looks likely that the seat will stay in the Clyburn family for at least a few more terms.

Link to very, very large picture of raw filet mignon removed --Mod.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #570 on: June 13, 2018, 12:14:34 PM »
dear god please minimize that picture lmao
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #571 on: June 13, 2018, 12:54:06 PM »
Rothenberg: The House Blue Wave is Alive and Well
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #572 on: June 13, 2018, 12:56:06 PM »
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Gass3268
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« Reply #573 on: June 13, 2018, 12:57:03 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 13, 2018, 12:56:06 PM


Brutal for VA 2, 5, 7 & 10.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #574 on: June 13, 2018, 01:02:10 PM »
Realistically are all four really competitive? I know VA-10 and VA-2 are but the other two seem to be reach seats
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