2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 01, 2024, 12:49:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 ... 76
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 172881 times)
LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #525 on: June 04, 2018, 07:22:32 PM »
Think Freitas might win the primary. He certainly has the facebook enthusiasm.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,573
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #526 on: June 06, 2018, 02:43:14 PM »
« Edited: June 06, 2018, 02:53:32 PM by Gass3268 »
Cook Political Report making some moves in New Jersey:



And California:
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #527 on: June 06, 2018, 03:15:12 PM »
Strange they didn't move 39 back, it was lean D for a while there, but was moved back because of uncertainty in the primary.

NJ definitely has republicans spooked though. They got a piss-poor recruit in NJ-02 basically forcing the  already expected triage. In the other three main one: NJ-03, NJ-7, NJ-11, dems have quality recruits facing quality rep recruits in a dem state in a dem year - or a republican ballot advantage in NJ-03. Oh, and dems won the turnout game yesterday in all but one seat, and that one they lost featured a brutal Rep primary that burned countless donor money - encouraging high turnout.

Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #528 on: June 06, 2018, 05:00:30 PM »
NJ-04 moves from Safe to Likely R.

Also, Sabato changed NY-18 to Likely D (was safe) but no reason was given.
Logged
Babeuf
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 502


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #529 on: June 06, 2018, 05:16:15 PM »
Quote from: Newt Gingrich on June 06, 2018, 05:00:30 PM
Also, Sabato changed NY-18 to Likely D (was safe) but no reason was given.
It's because Sean Maloney is running for NY AG and will not be running for reelection if he wins the AG primary. If he loses then I think he'll stay and run for reelection in NY-18.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #530 on: June 06, 2018, 06:02:47 PM »
It blows my mind that Jersey has a 6-6 congressional delegation.
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,916
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #531 on: June 06, 2018, 06:10:34 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on June 06, 2018, 06:02:47 PM
It blows my mind that Jersey has a 6-6 congressional delegation.

7D - 5R now, it was 6D - 6R pre-2017. New Jersey was actually pretty favorable turf for downballot Republicans during the Obama era. Well, at least in the popular vote, anyway. Republican legislative candidates may have actually won he popular vote on occasion but were kept out in the cold by crafty maps.
Logged
International Brotherhood of Bernard
interstate73
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 651


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #532 on: June 06, 2018, 06:12:40 PM »
Quote from: Zyzz on June 06, 2018, 06:02:47 PM
It blows my mind that Jersey has a 6-6 congressional delegation.

It's actually 7-5 D but it was 6-6 for a few years. Christie basically mafia'd the tie-breaker on the independent redistricting commission (threatened to pull funding from his department at Rutgers) so it's somewhat of a Republican gerrymander. Both NJ-11 and NJ-07 cut deep into the very blue Essex County suburbs and combine them with very conservative Morris suburbs (in NJ-11's case) and the far-flung exurban/rural Hunterdon County (in NJ-07's case), which under the old Obama/Romney coalitions kept them easily Republican, but with the new coalitions developing and political shifts occurring (I never would've predicted Dems would outvote Republicans in the primary in Morris!) it's looking more and more like a dummymander that could be 10-2 or even 11-1 D after November.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,990
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #533 on: June 06, 2018, 07:38:56 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 06, 2018, 03:15:12 PM
Strange they didn't move 39 back, it was lean D for a while there, but was moved back because of uncertainty in the primary.

NJ definitely has republicans spooked though. They got a piss-poor recruit in NJ-02 basically forcing the  already expected triage. In the other three main one: NJ-03, NJ-7, NJ-11, dems have quality recruits facing quality rep recruits in a dem state in a dem year - or a republican ballot advantage in NJ-03. Oh, and dems won the turnout game yesterday in all but one seat, and that one they lost featured a brutal Rep primary that burned countless donor money - encouraging high turnout.



The NJ-05 Republican primary was truly a sight to behold. Both Republicans were trying to out-Trump each other in a district that Trump won by 1%. I was mildly surprised that the less recognizable candidate won. Lonegan is a perpetual loser.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #534 on: June 07, 2018, 02:47:56 AM »
Often the rating outfits will move open seats from Safe to Likely once they become open and before any candidates have announced, just to be on the safe side. They are often moved back as the race develops.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,118


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #535 on: June 08, 2018, 08:38:45 AM »
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,573
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #536 on: June 08, 2018, 08:48:39 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 08, 2018, 08:38:45 AM


That's 3 seats that Cook is essentially saying have already flipped. That total goes to 6 if you include the Lean D seats.
Logged
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,407
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #537 on: June 08, 2018, 11:19:19 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 08, 2018, 08:38:45 AM

WHY CA 50?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #538 on: June 08, 2018, 11:22:42 AM »
Quote from: Representative-Elect politicalmasta73 on June 08, 2018, 11:19:19 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 08, 2018, 08:38:45 AM

WHY CA 50?

Dems got the more extreme of two nominees in a hard-right seat. Barring Vapedouchs scandals going to trial, or anything like that, Cook says it should be moved to safe R.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #539 on: June 08, 2018, 11:24:59 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2018, 05:34:41 PM by Virginia »

The seat was always bordering between Likely R and Safe R anyway, and it doesn't appear Hunter has underperformed much at all.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #540 on: June 08, 2018, 11:30:17 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2018, 05:34:57 PM by Virginia »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 08, 2018, 11:22:42 AM

Dems got the more extreme of two nominees in a hard-right seat. Barring Vapedouchs scandals going to trial, or anything like that, Cook says it should be moved to safe R.

IMO a reasonable move.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,097
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #541 on: June 08, 2018, 11:30:57 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2018, 05:35:09 PM by Virginia »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 08, 2018, 11:22:42 AM

Dems got the more extreme of two nominees in a hard-right seat. Barring Vapedouchs scandals going to trial, or anything like that, Cook says it should be moved to safe R.

I was under the impression that people were complaining about Najjar being too moderate.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #542 on: June 08, 2018, 05:25:10 PM »
lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #543 on: June 08, 2018, 05:27:30 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2018, 05:34:30 PM by Virginia »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on June 08, 2018, 11:30:57 AM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on June 08, 2018, 11:22:42 AM

Dems got the more extreme of two nominees in a hard-right seat. Barring Vapedouchs scandals going to trial, or anything like that, Cook says it should be moved to safe R.

I was under the impression that people were complaining about Najjar being too moderate.

They’re just jealous they aren’t as handsome as him.

(Honestly I don’t think Najjar and Butner were that different on the issues)
Logged
Thunder98
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,574
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #544 on: June 10, 2018, 04:19:01 PM »

Very Safe D
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,645
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #545 on: June 10, 2018, 04:51:23 PM »
Quote from: Maxwell on June 08, 2018, 05:25:10 PM
lol CA-50 was always going to be quite a stretch even with Hunter's scandals, Najjar was the better candidate of the two anyways. Butner seemed very overhyped.

Both were overhyped imo.
Logged
heatcharger
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,525
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #546 on: June 11, 2018, 08:55:13 AM »


Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!
Logged
JG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,146


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #547 on: June 11, 2018, 09:28:34 AM »
Quote from: heatcharger on June 11, 2018, 08:55:13 AM


Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!

Interesting list of states. Looks like they aren't too worried about Ohio, which is a great sign.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,027


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #548 on: June 11, 2018, 09:34:18 AM »
Quote from: JG on June 11, 2018, 09:28:34 AM
Quote from: heatcharger on June 11, 2018, 08:55:13 AM


Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!

Interesting list of states. Looks like they aren't too worried about Ohio, which is a great sign.

Same list as McConnell from a few weeks ago. Missing are Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Texas, and the secondary seats in Mississippi and Minnesota. It appears obvious where the battle for the senate will be fought.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,047


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #549 on: June 11, 2018, 10:49:06 AM »
Quote from: JG on June 11, 2018, 09:28:34 AM
Quote from: heatcharger on June 11, 2018, 08:55:13 AM


Wonderful news for a Democratic Senate. Thank you big donors!

Interesting list of states. Looks like they aren't too worried about Ohio, which is a great sign.

Also, Sherrod Brown has eleventy-billion dollars and his Republican opponents are underfunded.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 ... 76  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 9 queries.