2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

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If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

[Ebsy]

My intuition is that Pittenger will not be in the next congress. Either he loses the primary or the general. Winning candidates don't perform like this.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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This is an R+8 district. Is McCready an especially strong candidate, or is he just the unwitting beneficiary of #resistance money?

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If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

He also appears to have a well funded primary challenger.

This appears to be one of the NC Dem targets, if we can call any of the back row reach seat 'targets.' McReady is one of the Dem Veterans that are so classic this cycle. The seat also has the right combination of strong Clinton swings in the Suburbs and right-leaning SE Charlotte, and Obama dem areas in the Eastern part of the seat.

For every reason here though, the seat has not gone unmissed. The strong R primary challenger (Pittenger has faced strong primaries before), the fund gaps, the demographics - both Cook and Sabato have been moving the seat since January and now sits at Lean R.

I’d say Budd’s seat is Toss-up tilt-D (closer to Lean D than tilt-R, I don’t use Pure Tossup) and Pittenger’s is tilt-D (closer tossup tilt-R than Lean D) if he’s renominated and Lean R (right on the border of Likely R, just like Holding’s seat) if Pittenger loses the Republican primary.  At the very least, Ted Budd is probably going down (probably by mid-to-high single digits).  Pittenger is a remarkably weak incumbent with serious corruption scandals who has also made at least one extremely racist gaffe IIRC.  On a different note, Richard Burr is incredibly lucky that he isn’t on the ballot this year.

[Maxwell]

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This is an R+8 district. Is McCready an especially strong candidate, or is he just the unwitting beneficiary of #resistance money?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If they weren’t panicking before, they should probably panic now.

He also appears to have a well funded primary challenger.

This appears to be one of the NC Dem targets, if we can call any of the back row reach seat 'targets.' McReady is one of the Dem Veterans that are so classic this cycle. The seat also has the right combination of strong Clinton swings in the Suburbs and right-leaning SE Charlotte, and Obama dem areas in the Eastern part of the seat.

For every reason here though, the seat has not gone unmissed. The strong R primary challenger (Pittenger has faced strong primaries before), the fund gaps, the demographics - both Cook and Sabato have been moving the seat since January and now sits at Lean R.

I’d say Budd’s seat is Toss-up tilt-D (closer to Lean D than tilt-R, I don’t use Pure Tossup) and Pittenger’s is tilt-D (closer tossup tilt-R than Lean D) if he’s renominated and Lean R (right on the border of Likely R, just like Holding’s seat) if Pittenger loses the Republican primary.  At the very least, Ted Budd is probably going down (probably by mid-to-high single digits).  Pittenger is a remarkably weak incumbent with serious corruption scandals who has also made at least one extremely racist gaffe IIRC.  On a different note, Richard Burr is incredibly lucky that he isn’t on the ballot this year.

meh I don't really agree with that - I still think its a toss-up if Pittenger loses the primary because Mark Harris is definitely not a good general election candidate.

[ajc0918]

Charlie Dent (R, PA-15) is resigning in May. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JoeCunninghamSC/status/985541496437919745

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986585994878169088

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986585994878169088

Clearly the blue wave is dead

[Gustaf]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986585994878169088

Back of the envelope calculation: as I recall, the bigger fundraiser wins in about 95% of House races. Of course, this skews to safe races. But 5% of the house seats is only about 22 seats. So if you take that as the ceiling this would still predict Democrats picking up about 40 seats. So it seems like a strong indication.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Followup:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/986586375020535808

He also said that Cook would be shifting 7 House ratings today as a result of the FEC reports.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cook rating changes:

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[Hindsight was 2020]

Cook rating changes:

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If seats like IL14 and VA05 are only leans then woof

[Hindsight was 2020]

Having trouble finding the source but Ojeda is ahead of the the GOP candidates in fundarsing for WV-03

[Ebsy]

Having trouble finding the source but Ojeda is ahead of the the GOP candidates in fundarsing for WV-03

https://twitter.com/KentonTilford/status/986615787791224833

[Gass3268]

Ossoff is making bank off his donor list:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/986728924930543616

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Having trouble finding the source but Ojeda is ahead of the the GOP candidates in fundarsing for WV-03

https://twitter.com/KentonTilford/status/986615787791224833

Sappers clear the way, airborne all the way, big pharma can go to hell!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

[GlobeSoc]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

It would be amazing for us and pathetic for the GOP if they're forced to triage this race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Are the Republicans in this race actively trying to scare off donors? Because that's the only explanation for these comically awful numbers. 

[KingSweden]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

....

[LimoLiberal]

Congressman Paul Davis. Nice ring to it.

[Bumaye]

I mean the fact that the Republican leadership just gave 1,3 million for ads to the local GOP - in a Trump +19 district - made it clear already that it is vulnerable but those numbers? Holy cow...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

I've had this seat at Lean D for a while, I'm glad I now have something more than a hunch to back that up.

[Doimper]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Amazing

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fundrasing for KS-02 has come out and holy sh*t:
Paul Davis (D): 338,000
Caryn Tyson (R): 41,000
Steve Watkins (R): 40,000
Steve Firzgerald (R): 25,000
Kevin Jones (R): 6,000

Wow.