AZ-SEN PPP: Sinema +5

[YE]

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

[YE]

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

What would you describe it then? It's an R+2 district with unique groups that tends to elect moderate to conservative Democrats to Congress.

[YE]

These numbers are inflated, but Flake could lose like Heller in a tight contest.

Flake retired.