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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ-SEN PPP: Sinema +5
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Author Topic: AZ-SEN PPP: Sinema +5  (Read 3197 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: March 21, 2018, 09:38:55 am »
« edited: March 21, 2018, 10:17:34 am by TheRocketRaccoon »

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Battleground-Health-Care-Memo.pdf

Sinema 46
McSally 41

Generic D Candidate 45
Generic R Candidate 47

Trump approval 45/50
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« Reply #1 on: March 21, 2018, 09:52:56 am »

Woohoo! Tilt D
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: March 21, 2018, 09:55:38 am »

McSally is a poor candidate, this is Lean D, but closer to Likely than Tossup.
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« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2018, 09:58:50 am »

McSally is a poor candidate, this is Lean D, but closer to Likely than Tossup.

Yep, plus last week revealed her severe case of foot-in-the-mouth syndrome.
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2018, 11:15:40 am »

I could see McSally being the Bruce Braley of this cycle. She really is overrated.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2018, 11:16:54 am »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.
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Senator YE
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2018, 11:23:44 am »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2018, 12:23:08 pm »

We have been saying this all along.

McSally could have chosen to go down as a Rick Saccone type boring candidate

But she chose to go hard right...she increasingly is looking just like Kelli Ward, And if Ward couldn't win a general election as a nutjob neither can McSally
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2018, 12:51:36 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.
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JG
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« Reply #9 on: March 21, 2018, 12:53:39 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

I think a Generic Dem is imagined to be more liberal than Sinema actually is and a generic Rep more moderate than McSally is playing it right now.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2018, 01:14:54 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

Not really, Arizona has been a red state for decades.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2018, 01:27:53 pm »

Hmmmm, it is worrying though that Generic Rep is leading Generic Dem by 2.

I think a Generic Dem is imagined to be more liberal than Sinema actually is and a generic Rep more moderate than McSally is playing it right now.

^^
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bronz4141
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« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2018, 01:44:18 pm »

It's March 2018


Anything can happen. AZ-SEN is Tossup.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2018, 02:17:30 pm »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 02:21:54 pm by Tintrlvr »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2018, 02:28:56 pm »

It's March 2018


Anything can happen. AZ-SEN is Tossup.

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Webnicz
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« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2018, 02:30:17 pm »
« Edited: March 21, 2018, 03:04:01 pm by Webnicz »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

Babeu was going to loose but he ended up loosing by a large margin because of all his scandals, not because he is gay. Though, one of his scandals includes threatening to deport his immigrant lover if he outed him as gay.

O'Halleran is a good independent minded(former GOP state rep) which helped his case.

I also believe mormons in the white mountain region are more likely to vote for democrats than mormons in Provo or Mesa. The White mountain region itself does have many rural whites that are more wiling to vote for Democrats than rural whites in other regions - think of it as Montana in a way, still leans conservative but willing to vote D down ballot.
to go further on the last point, while Clinton lost Navajo county by 10 points,  Kirkpatrick only lost by 2.8 and it was one of her best performing counties(she did so much better in this region than Clinton despite underperforming Clinton in Maricopa), and O'Halleran won Navajo.
Meanwhile in western Arizona counties like Yavapai and Mojave, rural whites aren't willing to vote Dem down ballot.
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Senator YE
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« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2018, 02:40:46 pm »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.

Tbf O'Halleran's seat is ancestrally a blue dog Democrat seat. But given that most pollsters do not poll in Spanish, it would not surprise me if Sinema outperformed.

"Blue dog" is a really bad descriptor for that seat. It contains a lot of unusual demographic groups (Native Americans, including multiple rival tribal groups, small resort-town liberals in Sedona and Flagstaff, super-religious Mormons in Snowflake/Taylor/Holbrook etc. (not actual FLDS, who are outside the district, but more conservative than your average Utah Mormon)), which don't necessarily follow national trendlines, but that doesn't make it "blue dog".

Babeu I am certain underperformed because he is gay, especially in ultra-Mormon country. Navajo County, which is the center of the Mormon population in the district, voted for O'Halleran despite voting for Trump by 11% and had by far the biggest difference between Presidential and Congressional votes.

What would you describe it then? It's an R+2 district with unique groups that tends to elect moderate to conservative Democrats to Congress.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #17 on: March 22, 2018, 10:32:39 am »

Great poll. I assume Arpaio and  Ward would even be weaker candidates. Too bad they wern't polled.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2018, 04:57:38 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.
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« Reply #19 on: March 22, 2018, 05:03:05 pm »

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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #20 on: March 22, 2018, 08:23:29 pm »

I don't trust AZ at all. I think people are getting ahead of themselves on this one.

America’s sheriff got blown the  out by 13 points in 2016. Even outside of Maricopa County, Arizona Dems ran ahead of the rot of Hillary Clinton—look at O’Halleran winning a Trump seat by 8 points.
tbf, he ran against ing babeu...
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« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2018, 08:36:28 pm »

When will the PPP polls be added to the database?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2018, 09:07:58 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Martin Heinrich?
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henster
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« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2018, 09:28:31 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Eh, Gillibrand and Heinrich?
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« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2018, 10:37:10 pm »

Sinema will easily be the most attractive Senator in the country.

Creep
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