PA Senate: who will win?

[© tweed]

I'm guessing about 75% of people will pick Casey to win.  I just want to get a full hold of the Atlas' opinion on this race.

[Jake]

I'm calling a Casey win like I have since he got into the race, but it's far from over like many on here like to claim.

[Keystone Phil]

Casey is likely to win but anyone who thinks he's going to crush Santorum is insane. No one is going to win by more than six points.

[Moooooo]

Hard to vote against Casey when you look at the numbers.  However, Im staying away from predictions for at least another 6 months.  Its just too early.  Hatch, Kennedy, and a couple others are obviously going to cruise to re-election, but after that it gets tricky.

[memphis]

I agree that Santorum is going down. Just like the Dems are having more and more trouble in the South, so are the Reps in the NE. Regionalism is really scary for those who care about the integrity of the United States. Still, Santorum's defeat is his own fault for not being a moderate Arlen Specter type Republican. I think it's too late for him to change his image now.

[Ben.]

I'm calling a Casey win like I have since he got into the race, but it's far from over like many on here like to claim.

I’d agree.

Casey is popular and well liked, he’ll also get a lot of backing from the DSCC in a year when the GOP is the majority party on the Hill and holds the White House and furthermore is not as popular as it once was in either department… he’s also been racking up very wide leads over a republican incumbent ever since he entered the race.

Santorum, despite suffering for the first time for his loyalty to the Bush White House and GOP leadership and despite being modestly unpopular, has a great deal of cash on hand and can be a more energetic campaigner than Casey on top of this like Casey he’ll get plenty of backing from his party’s leadership.

But on balance, Casey’s popularity together with Santorum and the GOP’s unpopularity, the likelihood of a strong Democratic campaign and Casey’s consistently wide leads in the polls, makes it very likely that Casey will win this one, but Santorum’s campaigning ability and likely cash advantage will help him narrow the gap, but I don’t see it allowing him to overtake Casey. It will be a lot closer than the 11-14 point leads Casey has been racking up in recent polls, but I’d still maintain that Casey is both the favourite and the most likely to win… so say a final vote tally of Casey(D) 51% - Santorum(R) 46% - Liberal Third Party 4%... or something like that       

[ian]

As soon as I answer Casey, Santorum will win.  That's just my luck!

[Max Power]

I see a Casey win by about 52.2% to Santorum's 46.8%, with 1% going Green or some other third party.

[© tweed]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

[Max Power]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

Good for you.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

thats because most people have the mental ability to consider everything about a race. You, on the other hand, make it easy on yourself and just assume the Dems will lose everything.

To put it simply: to you, this glass wouldnt be full enough:

[© tweed]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

thats because most people have the mental ability to consider everything about a race. You, on the other hand, make it easy on yourself and just assume the Dems will lose everything.

Not true.  Look at my comments in the "Harris makeover" thread.

I think Casey is a poor debator and finisher, will get creamed by Santorum in the debates and charisma column, and end up losing by a razor-think margin.  My prediction of a Santorum victory is hardly unfounded.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

thats because most people have the mental ability to consider everything about a race. You, on the other hand, make it easy on yourself and just assume the Dems will lose everything.

Not true.  Look at my comments in the "Harris makeover" thread.

I think Casey is a poor debator and finisher, will get creamed by Santorum in the debates and charisma column, and end up losing by a razor-think margin.  My prediction of a Santorum victory is hardly unfounded.

the dems here are too desperate to win back power. Theyll back anyone they can.

[© tweed]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

thats because most people have the mental ability to consider everything about a race. You, on the other hand, make it easy on yourself and just assume the Dems will lose everything.

Not true.  Look at my comments in the "Harris makeover" thread.

I think Casey is a poor debator and finisher, will get creamed by Santorum in the debates and charisma column, and end up losing by a razor-think margin.  My prediction of a Santorum victory is hardly unfounded.

the dems here are too desperate to win back power. Theyll back anyone they can.

That's a good argument.   

Independents/moderates are likely to decide this election.  Right now, they're backing Casey as he's obviously the centrist and is well-liked.  But once the debates roll along, I think Santorum's charm so-to-speak (which, love him or hate him, he's got that going over Casey) will help him win over the swing voters and take the election.  This isn't Maryland--Casey can't just win by solidifying his own base, which isn't a given due to his socially conservative positions.

[Speed of Sound]

I'm the only Santorum vote out of 16 so far.

thats because most people have the mental ability to consider everything about a race. You, on the other hand, make it easy on yourself and just assume the Dems will lose everything.

Not true.  Look at my comments in the "Harris makeover" thread.

I think Casey is a poor debator and finisher, will get creamed by Santorum in the debates and charisma column, and end up losing by a razor-think margin.  My prediction of a Santorum victory is hardly unfounded.

the dems here are too desperate to win back power. Theyll back anyone they can.

That's a good argument.   

Independents/moderates are likely to decide this election.  Right now, they're backing Casey as he's obviously the centrist and is well-liked.  But once the debates roll along, I think Santorum's charm so-to-speak (which, love him or hate him, he's got that going over Casey) will help him win over the swing voters and take the election.  This isn't Maryland--Casey can't just win by solidifying his own base, which isn't a given due to his socially conservative positions.

im going to disagree. While everything about Casey personality wise is lame, he can still make enough connections to win this thing (right now he holds 80% of loberals, 60% of moderates, and 34% of conservatives)

[Defarge]

Casey.  But it'll be closer than the polls suggest.

[Lincoln Republican]

As much as I would like to see Santorum back in the Senate, I believe Casey will win.

Santorum has painted himself into a corner, and has made too many controversial statements that can and will be used against him in the court of public opinion.

[Flying Dog]

Casey: 53%
Santorum: 47%

[Andy Hine]

Casey is likely to win but anyone who thinks he's going to crush Santorum is insane. No one is going to win by more than six points.

Bruh

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I clicked on this thinking it would be about Toomey and McGinty and then got some 11 year old thread that was just bumped for no apparent reason.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Casey is likely to win but anyone who thinks he's going to crush Santorum is insane. No one is going to win by more than six points.

Bruh

Sarkozy will win reelection.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Santorum isn't going to run.  Regardless, Casey will easily beat any Republican in 2018.

[Heisenberg]

Santorum isn't going to run.  Regardless, Casey will easily beat any Republican in 2018.

Wait, what? He won reelection in 2012 to a "some guy" (who is now dead) by a margin smaller than expected. Charlie Dent can beat Casey in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

Santorum has blown whatever chance he ever had to be a Senator from Pennsylvania after 2006 by doing the dirty work for the Bush Administration, and he has done nothing to show himself a good fir for Pennsylvania.

[Joe Republic]

I like the two Michigan avatars here discussing this potential matchup for a future election.