Washington Post Top 10 House Seats Most Likely to Flip in November

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/18/the-top-10-house-races-of-2018/?__twitter_impression=true&utm_term=.af0af2d38eb9


1. PA-05
2. FL-27
3. NJ-02
4. PA-06
5. MN-08
6. VA-10
7. AZ-02
8. MN-02
9. IA-01
10. CA-39

WHAT IS THIS BOTH SIDES BULLsh**t!?!?!?!?! WHAT MENTALLY INEBRIATED WASHINGTON POST WRITER DECIDED THAT MINNESOTAS 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT, WHICH HAS BEEN DEMOCRATIC SINCE THE BEGINNING OF TIME, IS MORE LIKELY TO FLIP THAN A CLINTON+10 DISTRICT IN A MASSIVELY PRO DEMOCRATIC ENVIRONMENT.

i actually think the rest of the list is pretty good, though i would switch CA-49 for CA-39 based off past results and the limited polling we have.

[MAINEiac4434]

>No ME-02

Garbage list.

[Dr. MB]

Don't trust this "most likely to flip" nonsense.

First of all, I think putting MN-02 after MN-08 is utterly ridiculous. Second of all, only one CA district? 7 California districts voted for Clinton.

There are about 20 House seats that are just as likely to flip as #s 5–10 on this list.

[Oryxslayer]

Seriously, MN-08 needs to get off the list. The rest is kinda fine, and there is a clear trend: marginal seats all the way to strong dem seats preferably open with good candidates. With that in mind, I would remove IA-01 and put CA-49 somewhere on the list, and also stick PA-17 on the list if it technically counts. MN-08 should get off the list, and MN-01 should enter if we are considering R pickups.

Yeah and like the article says, while 4-10 are arguable, 1-3 are really not. PA-05 and FL-27 are simply now safe D seats without any real R competition, and NJ-02 is pretty much Van Drew's already thanks to his record in NJ.

[Gass3268]

Seriously, MN-08 needs to get off the list. The rest is kinda fine, and there is a clear trend: marginal seats all the way to strong dem seats preferably open with good candidates. With that in mind, I would remove IA-01 and put CA-49 somewhere on the list, and also stick PA-17 on the list if it technically counts. MN-08 should get off the list, and MN-01 should enter if we are considering R pickups.

Yeah, I feel like for these "most likely to flip" lists they always feel like they need to include a Democratic seat. MN-01 would make more sense.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

There should be no Democratic seats on this list.

[Tekken_Guy]

Several obvious flips missing: IL-6, NJ-11, CA-49, WA-8, MN-3, NJ-7, CO-6

[Pericles]

My list.
1. FL-27
2. PA-05
3. CA-49
4. NJ-02
5. PA-06
6. VA-10
7. CA-10
8. AZ-02
9. MN-08
10. CA-39

[Tartarus Sauce]

Honestly, it's pretty much impossible to rank a top 10 from my perspective simply given how large the potential playing field is for Democrats. There are different categories of vulnerability, but ranking each seat in a discrete sequence of probable turnover is way too arbitrary to mean anything substantial.

I agree that no Democratic seat should be on the list, though the area currently covered by Minnesota-8 is definitely going to be one of the most vulnerable to a Republican takeover once Democrats are back in power. Jim Oberstar losing in 2010 was just the beginning, Nolan barely managed to hang onto the seat in 2014 and 2016 and Trump won it by a 15% margin.

[Badger]

Somehow I just knew they were going to have to include at least one Democratic seat to avoid the inevitable accusations of being slanted, regardless of all empirical evidence to the contrary.

I have to admit, I'm impressed that they only limited themselves to one.

[Beet]

Fun fact: at the start of the 2006 cycle, PA-06 was rated as the 2nd most likely to flip. It didn't.

[Bidenworth2020]

Fun fact: at the start of the 2006 cycle, PA-06 was rated as the 2nd most likely to flip. It didn't.

it wasnt even close, 60-39.

[YE]

Fun fact: at the start of the 2006 cycle, PA-06 was rated as the 2nd most likely to flip. It didn't.

it wasnt even close, 60-39.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Pennsylvania,_2006#6th_Congressional_district

No it was a one point win in a rematch from 2004.