1960 with 2016 Demographics
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Author Topic: 1960 with 2016 Demographics  (Read 633 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: March 16, 2018, 05:44:07 PM »

As in the title. What would the 1960 election have looked like modern-day (2016) demographics? Would Kennedy have won by a decisive margin? Or would it still have been close?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2018, 05:55:33 PM »

If demographics include today's political map then a tossup based on today's battleground map. My guess is Nixon wins on Ike's coattails in an election almost as close as RL's.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2018, 06:09:20 PM »

If demographics include today's political map then a tossup based on today's battleground map. My guess is Nixon wins on Ike's coattails in an election almost as close as RL's.

I should have made it clearer. It would be the 1960 election, with the same political conditions, but with modern demographic patterns.
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Mail-order President
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2018, 12:27:09 AM »
« Edited: March 17, 2018, 12:30:15 AM by Dark Horse »


Senator John F. Kennedy (D-MA)/Senator Lyndon B. Johnson (D-TX) - 275 EV 49.1%
Vice President Richard Nixon (R-CA)/Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge Jr. (R-MA) - 262 EV 49.4%
Nixon has a sizable lead in the polls and thought to be the next President.  Kennedy shocks America and the world by winning the Electoral College.
Kennedy holds Pennsylvania by a razor thin 400 votes (while Nixon wins Nevada by about 800 votes).  Recounts ensue and Kennedy's margin is an even smaller 235 votes.  Lots of controversy about potential voter fraud, but Nixon eventually concedes and Kennedy becomes president elect without a solid mandate.

Closest States:
Pennsylvania 49.5-49.498
Nevada 49.3-49.2
Florida 49.7-49.0
New Hampshire 49.8-48.9
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2018, 10:23:20 AM »

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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2018, 10:51:18 AM »

Run this through 538's calculator using this poll. Take with about a pound of salt for obvious reasons.


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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2018, 07:44:50 PM »



John F Kennedy / Lyndon Johnson • 432
Richard Nixon / Henry Cabot Lodge • 105
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