Hungary parliamentary election April 8 2018

[MaxQue]

Fidesz percentage is slowly going down. With almost 85% counted, they're at 48.95% of the list PV and 133 seats. They might lose their 2/3 majority, because I think much of what's coming in right now is from Budapest. Still, a stronger showing than expected in the days before the election.

Even if that happens, I would still consider it a great result due to the high turnout. The opposition underperformed.

No, the government bought votes. That's why the turnout went "up".

[MAINEiac4434]

Bring back Kádár

[DavidB.]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

[TheSaint250]

According to the Wikipedia page, MKKP and MM each won one seat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

  Ballot stuffing, corruption, vote buying or not, this result still falls somewhere around the range predicted, and the close marginal seats that I have been posting about (my Budapest "world capital of marginal seats" obsession) came through pretty marginal in the final results. Basically we knew on this thread, and the Hungarian electorate knew as well what the marginal seats were, and the final results matched this.
  Also, if DK could fall just under 5% that would be nice for Fidesz, and instead they didn't, finishing just above, and the likelihood that DK might be in trouble to reach 5% was known (and posted about on this thread days ago), so again the results aren't a big surprise.  This is not to argue that there might not have been cheating/fraud etc. but the results fall in the margin of the expected. 

And let me guess - all these marginals went for Fidesz by a hair?

You don't need Putin-esque margins to rig an election. Just make sure to get the right amount of votes from the right places.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Well, that democracy was nice while it lasted.

[rob in cal]

  In the Budapest region, there were several close victories won by the left, Budapest 9,11,12,15,16,17,18, and the independent in Baranya 1 won barely. Also, Jobbiks lone victory was close.  As we mentioned earlier, a united left campaign would probably have won most of the six seats in Budapest.  Fidesz won some close seats as well, but not a suspicious amount of them.  There were only so many marginal seats up for grabs (not much difference from 2014), and the opposition did pretty well, but failed to maximize their chances by agreeing to one candidate in several of the Budapest seats.
   Fidesz perfomance in the rural areas was really strong and I think thats where the most likely place, if I had to bet on it, that they would have tried to run up the score and cheat if that in fact happened, so as to maximize their national list %. 

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

According to the Wikipedia page, MKKP and MM each won one seat.

Can anyone confirm that they actually won seats?

[Oryxslayer]

According to the Wikipedia page, MKKP and MM each won one seat.

Can anyone confirm that they actually won seats?

https://index.hu/belfold/2018/valasztas/mandatumok/ The site that I have been using has two 'indies' winning, I guess they are those. One got in off of proportionality, the other off of a seat in Pecs. The Pecs seat (Független) was unopposed by the Left tent, so he was the obvious pick for those voters.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for today:

49% Fidesz
19% Jobbik
32% Various center-left/liberal/green/satire parties

Fidesz wins a huge majority of seats.

Wow, a stunning prediction.

Currently 48.8, 19.5, 31.7

[MAINEiac4434]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

I'm just saying if Hungary wants an authoritarian they should go full Happy Barrack. Gulyáskonzervativizmus, anyone?

(and honestly Kádár was probably the least worst Eastern Bloc leader - Hoxha was a literal crazy person, Ceaușescu and Honecker were some of the most repressive leaders Europe has ever seen. I don't know much about Jaruzelski or Zhivkov but I can't imagine they're much better)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

I'm just saying if Hungary wants an authoritarian they should go full Happy Barrack. Gulyáskonzervativizmus, anyone?

(and honestly Kádár was probably the least worst Eastern Bloc leader - Hoxha was a literal crazy person, Ceaușescu and Honecker were some of the most repressive leaders Europe has ever seen. I don't know much about Jaruzelski or Zhivkov but I can't imagine they're much better)

Yeah, while the 1956 revolt was crushed, it's worth noting that in its aftermath Hungary enjoyed a remarkably benign regime compared to its Eastern Bloc neighbors. Of course no self-respecting leftist should make apologies for dictatorships, but if the choice is between that and Orban...

[rob in cal]

   Tender, nice job on the prediction.  Wonder where Jobbik goes now with Vona's resignation.

[Aboa]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

I'm just saying if Hungary wants an authoritarian they should go full Happy Barrack. Gulyáskonzervativizmus, anyone?

(and honestly Kádár was probably the least worst Eastern Bloc leader - Hoxha was a literal crazy person, Ceaușescu and Honecker were some of the most repressive leaders Europe has ever seen. I don't know much about Jaruzelski or Zhivkov but I can't imagine they're much better)

Yeah, while the 1956 revolt was crushed, it's worth noting that in its aftermath Hungary enjoyed a remarkably benign regime compared to its Eastern Bloc neighbors. Of course no self-respecting leftist should make apologies for dictatorships, but if the choice is between that and Orban...

You choose the guy who sided against Hungarian revolution?

Tell me how many of his opponents has Orban executed.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983275441934012416

[DavidB.]

When the going gets tough, the weak vote for a joke party.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983108479450800128

[Zinneke]

Bring back Kádár

With this kind of comment, even if edgy and ironic, you completely disqualify yourself from criticizing Orbán's authoritarian tendencies -- you get that, right?

I'm just saying if Hungary wants an authoritarian they should go full Happy Barrack. Gulyáskonzervativizmus, anyone?

(and honestly Kádár was probably the least worst Eastern Bloc leader - Hoxha was a literal crazy person, Ceaușescu and Honecker were some of the most repressive leaders Europe has ever seen. I don't know much about Jaruzelski or Zhivkov but I can't imagine they're much better)

Yeah, while the 1956 revolt was crushed, it's worth noting that in its aftermath Hungary enjoyed a remarkably benign regime compared to its Eastern Bloc neighbors. Of course no self-respecting leftist should make apologies for dictatorships, but if the choice is between that and Orban...

...its still Orban unless he completely consolidates his grip on power.

Saying anything else is as bad as the conservative Right making parallels between the USSR and the EU in the way they treat central/eastern European countries.

[YPestis25]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/983325733757112320

Basically what we knew already, though no mention of the more egregious things we heard about last night.

[DavidB.]

So no evidence of fraud on e-day whatsoever. "Intimidating and xenophobic rhetoric" is hogwash; the other points (media bias, use of administrative resources, ruling party spending more on the campaign) are fair criticisms but, to a certain extent, pertain to almost all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

[BigSkyBob]

So no evidence of fraud on e-day whatsoever. "Intimidating and xenophobic rhetoric" is hogwash; the other points (media bias, use of administrative resources, ruling party spending more on the campaign) are fair criticisms but, to a certain extent, pertain to almost all countries in Central and Eastern Europe.

One of the hallmarks of free and fair elections is the ability of the electorate to choose whatever candidate they prefer, for whatever reason they choose, or, for no reason at all.

The accusation seems little more than objecting to one party's stand on one issue.

[DavidB.]

Exactly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The serious complaint that can (should) be made is that Orban uses the apparatus and prestige of the state for partisan purposes and that this has a corrupting effect on democracy: o/c as noted this is not unusual in Central/Eastern Europe. Combine that with the fact that opposition is made up of a) a fascist party that claims that it is woke now, b) an assortment of obviously corrupt postcommunist parties and therefore lacks much credibility, and we don't need to cry 'fraud' to explain... anything.

[BigSkyBob]

The serious complaint that can (should) be made is that Orban uses the apparatus and prestige of the state for partisan purposes and that this has a corrupting effect on democracy: o/c as noted this is not unusual in Central/Eastern Europe. Combine that with the fact that opposition is made up of a) a fascist party that claims that it is woke now, b) an assortment of obviously corrupt postcommunist parties and therefore lacks much credibility, and we don't need to cry 'fraud' to explain... anything.

And, the an argument can be made that the state of Hungary telling George Soros to go to Hell is a just and proper use of state funds. 

When the Russians spent a minor sum promoting the viewpoint that the American system is fundamentally non-democratic [it ignores all but the privileged elite] and corrupt on facebook and elsewhere an inordinate amount of American state resources were spent claiming that this was "hacking our election [a transparently false claim,]" and "interfering with our sacred election process [an equivocation between the meanings of 'participating' and 'interfering.']"


Russia just had an election in which Putin won reelection by a wide margin. This news has been met with recycled reports that this election, like his past ones, was not really a democratic one, and, that Putin administration is corrupt. Did anyone, notice the tit-for-tat?

 The Russian Republic is certainly corrupt, and, has murdered critics abroad. but, I don't know to what extent the other claims are true. What I have never read is a meaningful estimate of what percentage of the Russian electorate really approves of Putin's job performance, or would vote for him in an election that was in all respects, free, and fair.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I disagree as I think overtly antisemitic electoral campaigns are bad. This is a minority view these days o/c, but a minority position can be the correct one sometimes.

[Oryxslayer]

Various Parties: