Slovenian election - Miro Cerar has resigned

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A legal hurdle means that a September referendum that approved a 1-billion-euro railway project (no pocket change in a small country like Slovenia) has been annulled, supposedly after the YES side led by him wasn't honest enough with voters. (must...not...draw Brexit comparisons) Also, he was getting pissed off with his coalition partners, the SocDems and the OldPeople Party for being snakes.

Anyway, people familiar with Slovenia may know that the centre-liberal-left is notoriously fickle/ Previously represented by the dominant party the Liberal Democracy of Slovenia in the 90's (which hilariously ran Slovoj Zizek of all people in its first Presidential campaign), their election defeat in 2004 led to the parties collapse and the centre-left wondering aacross the board to find new guys. In 2008, the previous minor post-communist Social Democrats won under Pahor. They were confonted with the credit crunch, and were miserably defeated by trying to pass an increased pension age via referendum. They were replaced by Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković's Positive Slovenia, who won a plurality but was too crooked to find any coalition partners, causing his party to go into oppositio and him to hand over the reigns to Alenka Bratušek, who took the PM-ship in 2013 after the collapse of the right-leaning five-party coalition government . However Janković got pissy at being ditched, took back control of PS and Bratusek was ditched forming her own party. Both PS and Bratusek 's ZaaB failed miserably in 2014, with the centre-left going for genial technocrat guy Miro Cerar of the SMC (no prizes guessing what "MC" stands for). Anyway, Cerar has done nothing explicitly wrong, but nontheless his party has dropped like a stone nonetheless. Initially it looked like the left votes were going for the SocDems (Still chugging along), but they have recenetly rallied around Marjan Šarec's List, who narrowly lost the last Presidential election to incubent Borut Pahor. Other parties on the left include Bratusek's party (which has outlasted PS, even managing to win seats in 2014), the pensioner paert DeSuS and socialist Left (previously the "United" Left, but changed the left after a schism)/

The centre-right is dominated by the Slovenian Democratic Party, which is itself dominated by the most controversial politician in the country Janez Janša. Initially a socdem party that mdoeled itself after Solidarity, Jansa (leader since 1993) took the party in a populist right direction, frequently labeling his opponents as being communists and such; as well as stoking irredentist claims over Croatia. Always dogged by allegations of being crooked and of being involved in weapons smuggling, but is still in control of his party. (In 2014, he ran from prison) Hasn't really managed to benefit hugely from the anti-migrant fever, although he deeply tried. Other parties on the right include social conservatives DSi, the peasant party the SLS (which fell narrowly sub-threshold last election), the "United Right" (formed as an alliance between two new Soccon parties, one of which was literally called "God" lmao) and far-rightists SNS.

Currently LMŠ  (Šarec) is winning in polls (high teens), followed by SocDems and SDS with NSi, Left, SMC, DeSuS all chugging around 5% and Bratusek's party, the SNS, the United Right and SLS all sub-threshold.

For

[Mike88]

How does LMŠ position itself? A centrist party or a populist one?

Also, interesting that the PMs of both Slovenia and Slovakia resigned basically on the same day.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Genial centre left Third Way technocrat. Talks about reducing bureaucracy, reform of courts, largely against privatisation of telecoms/ports etc, balance the budget within X years, "pension reform", raising the election threshold etc. The centre left in Slovenia defines itself in opposition the populism of Jansa.

[parochial boy]

These are tomorrow, seems to be worth mentioning.

SDS are now polling way out in front, but nothing like PiS or Fidesz numbers. So remains to be see how much power they will actually be able to weild. Other people on here probably know far more than I do about Slovenian politics

[petr sokol]

16:00 - turnout 34 % (last time 35 %)

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Exit poll seats distribution. 

[parochial boy]

Phwoar, good luck forming a government out of that

[pilskonzept]

I guess

1) LMŠ - SD - SMC - Levica - Stranka AB - DeSUS

2) SDS - NSi - whoever, tolerated by SNS

are somewhat likely options.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I’m not sure Levica will join a government where they’d have such a fairly weak position.

DeSUS might go in with SDS as well, they’ve done so in the past and Karl Erjavec does fancy himself the kingmaker of Slovenian politics.

[FredLindq]

Official results:
SDS-EPP: 25% (25)
LMS-*: 12,6% (13)
SD-S&D: 10% (10)
SMC-ALDE: 9,7% (10)
Levica-LEFT: 9,2% (9)
NSi-EPP: 7,1% (7)
PAB-ALDE: 5,1% (5)
DeSUS-ALDE: 4,9% (5)
SNS-*: 4,2% (4)
Minorities 2

Center-left coalition: LMS-SD-SMC-PAB-DeSUS = 43 Supported by Minorities =45
This is however exactly half off the seats (90).

[Diouf]

Just realized now that Alenka Bratušek was not among the five elected MPs for the Party of Alenka Bratušek! Foreign Minister Karl Erjavec also failed to get re-elected despite being leader of DeSUS.

However, it wasn't really because of a particularly poor showing by Bratusek, but more to do with a slightly strange feature of the Slovenian electoral system. In general, the Slovenian system is quite good as a it is Proportional Representation. Parties that cross the 4% share of the vote nationally will get their deserved share of MPs. There are 8 electoral regions, which each elect 11 MPs, and the parties will get the most seats in the areas where they did the best (as long as there are still seats left in the region). This was already where things failed for DeSus leader Erjavec, who was running in the Kranj region, where the party only won 3.57%, the lowest result of all 8 regions. So a quite deserved failing for Erjavac, who also only managed to win 5,96% for DeSus in the district of Kranj, where he was running. However, this wasn't the problem for Bratusek. She also ran in Kranj, but it was the best region for PAB, so they won 1 of their 5 seats here. Each region consists of 11 districts, where the party runs one candidate each. Bratusek was the candidate in both Kranj I and Kranj II, and won 2 400 votes for the party, while party colleague Franc Kramar ran in the smaller town Radovljica and won 1 053 votes. So you might think that Bratusek wins the seat as the biggest vote getter. However, seats in the regions are not distributed to the candidate with the highest number of votes, but with the highest share of the votes. Bratusek secured 11,14% for PAB across the two Kranj districts, but Kramar won 13,85% of the vote in Radovlija and thereby the party's seat in Kranj. Quite a tough defeat for Bratusek. Not a particular fan of this little aspect of the electoral system. I prefer the general principle of the Danish model, where you can choose between all of a party's candidates in the regions, and the one/ones with the highest number of personal votes get in.


http://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/1378-on-political-parties-that-entered-parliament-without-their-leaders

[Diouf]

A centrist rainbow coalition could be on the way. Six parties agreed to nominate NSi leader Matej Tonin as the new Speaker. The parties putting forwards his name were LMS, SMC, SD, DeSUS, SAB and NSi, who would have a majority of 50 seats out of 90. So basically all centrist and centre-left party except the Left, and then joined by centre-right NSi. Marjan Šarec, leader of the second-largest LMS, has said that this a coalition he would prefer. Outgoing PM and SMC leader Miro Cerar also said that this was a step towards a coalition. However, NSi states that the parties still have negotiations with both sides (increasing the concessions they can get). SDS and SNS actually ended up voting for Tonin as well, so only the Left voted against him. SDS knew they could not get a candidate of their own through, so to keep relations with NSi open, it was probably smart to vote for Tonin. Surprising to me that SNS showed the same constraint.

http://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/1494-tonin-elected-speaker-of-slovenian-parliament-feature

[Diouf]

SDS as expected has not been able to find a majority yet. The six party negotiations between LMS, SMC, SD, DeSUS, SAB and NSi broke down as the centre-right NSi quit negotiations. The five centre-left parties are now instead trying to reach a deal with the far-left Levica instead.

http://www.sloveniatimes.com/pm-nomination-process-entering-second-stage

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I note that the Left have decided not to insist on a referendum on leaving NATO, meaning that at the very least they don't want to be blamed for the talks falling through. However, they're still demanding substantial revisions to the existing coalition agreement, and I'm not sure the other parties will cave enough.

Personally, I still expect one or more of the centre-left parties to 'sell out' and reach some sort of deal with Janša & friends at the last minute to avoid new elections.

[Diouf]

Levica rejected to be part of a sixparty government, but the parties are now negotiations about a possible minority government with outside support from Levica, which the far-left party seems much more open towards. However, Miro Cerar and Alenka Bratušek are afraid that such an arrangement would not be stable enough, which have caused some heated discussions with Šarec via the media.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.sloveniatimes.com/for-sarec-a-test-of-feasibility-of-minority-government

[Diouf]

Levica has decided to support Sarec' minority coalition. The parties have drawn up a cooperation protocol which sets out how the government and Levica will coordinate in terms of policy making. There are still some discouraging noises from Alenka Bratusek's party, but it seems like they are on board. A vote on Sarec as PM could happen already next week, and a cabinet is expected to be formed by September. The parties have already agreed on raising the minimum wage and pensions, increasing the employers' contribution to the pension system as well as reduced waiting periods in the health care system.

http://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/1829-sarec-gains-the-support-of-the-left-securing-position-as-pm

[Diouf]

Sarec confirmed as PM

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.france24.com/en/20180817-slovenia-mps-approve-centre-left-sarec-premier?ref=tw_i

[Diouf]

Sarec nominates cabinet



"New PM Marjan Šarec submitted the list of his 16 minister candidates to parliament. From next Tuesday to Thursday the minister candidates will face hearings in front of their relevant parliamentary committees. A vote on the new government, which will be the 13t h in Slovenia’s history, will be held on the 13th of September, or perhaps even one day earlier". Outgoing PM and SMC leader Miro Cerar is nominated as Foreign Minister, former PM and SAB leader Alenka Bratušek is nominated as Infrastructure Minister and DeSUS leader Karl Erjavec is nominated as Minister of Defense. SD leader Dejan Židan has decided to stay out of government. University professor Andrej Bertoncelj from LMS is nominated as Finance Minister.

http://www.total-slovenia-news.com/politics/1961-sarec-announces-16-candidates-for-ministers-includes-biographies


https://www.rtvslo.si/news-in-english/ougtoing-government-highlights-stability-names-of-new-minister-candidates-sent-to-parliament/464633