AZ-08: April 24 general election (Update: Lesko-R wins by 4.72 points)

[Jeppe]

Can the mods sticky this thread like they did for MT, GA, and PA special elections?

[Tartarus Sauce]

No, but I could easily see the margin being in the single digits.

[Torrain]

Predictions
- Lean R
- CNN on April 25: is the Blue Wave dead?
- Trump tweets about how popular he is, and how this makes up for losing PA-18, which didn’t count because Lamb was basically a Republican.
- Enten, Cohn and Silver state that results are in line with national swings towards Democrats
- jfern blames Hillary

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Predictions
- Lean R
- CNN on April 25: is the Blue Wave dead?
- Trump tweets about how popular he is, and how this makes up for losing PA-18, which didn’t count because Lamb was basically a Republican.
- Enten, Cohn and Silver state that results are in line with national swings towards Democrats
- jfern blames Hillary

Sounds about right

[Virginiá]

Can the mods sticky this thread like they did for MT, GA, and PA special elections?

Sure.

But I just want to say ahead of time, since Tender is the OP, that as far as I am concerned, this is a community election thread, so he's going to need to resist the urge to lock it immediately after the election is over, which I know he is unusually tempted to do.

[Rhenna]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

[_]

Lean R for now

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm not getting myself hyped over Harold Supernanny. She is a great candidate, but this district is too ancestrally red for her to come close.

[Jeppe]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

Yeah, I wish she were running in Sinema's district instead of Stanton.

[Dr. MB]

Dems won’t put much thought into this, but I think it will be close to the Kansas election last year.

[Jeppe]

"The National Republican Congressional Committee on Monday launched a coordinated, $170,000 TV buy with the campaign of candidate Debbie Lesko, according to a source familiar with the purchase. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a deep-pocketed GOP super PAC, is planning to spend about $100,000 on a phone and digital effort aimed at turning out conservative voters. Early voting starts on Wednesday.

The Republican National Committee, meanwhile, is spending about $280,000 on a field operation to bolster Lesko. She’s running to replace GOP Rep. Trent Franks, an eight-term congressman who resigned from his seat last year after reports that he pressed female aides to serve as a surrogate mother. Trump’s political team is also considering a range of options for getting involved in the race."

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/03/27/arizona-special-election-republicans-485678?__twitter_impression=true

[KingSweden]

I liked the “dumpster fire” headline

[Virginiá]

The median age according to census bureau numbers of this district compared to mine is a tad bit higher. 61% of voters here are 50+ years of age so I’m assuming that’s similar for AZ-8. You could compare this to PA-18 but there’s a big problem: this is an ancestrally Republican area while PA-18 was ancestrally Democrat. The older voters here are almost certainly staying Republican.

The GOP have been known to blow easy to win races so we’ll see. But this is gonna be even tougher than PA-18.

Fundamentally, the overall point of winning/losing this race is the same as PA-18 - it's all about feeding the narrative of a blue wave so as to drive fundraising, recruitment and spook Republicans into retiring. There is no actual effect on Congressional power here. None worth mentioning anyhow.

I think at this point, with some filing deadlines being passed and others coming up, retirements are going to be few and far between after April 24th (if any?), and the wave narrative already has enough fuel, so I don't think it really matters what happens in this race. Or, at least so long as the Democrat over-performs a little.

[Jeppe]

Harold Supernanny has been comparing Debbie Lesko to Betsy Devos, because she’s very pro schoolchoice.

[NOVA Green]

The median age according to census bureau numbers of this district compared to mine is a tad bit higher. 61% of voters here are 50+ years of age so I’m assuming that’s similar for AZ-8. You could compare this to PA-18 but there’s a big problem: this is an ancestrally Republican area while PA-18 was ancestrally Democrat. The older voters here are almost certainly staying Republican.

The GOP have been known to blow easy to win races so we’ll see. But this is gonna be even tougher than PA-18.

Bolded relevant section....

This is generally along my line of thinking about why this district will likely be a much more problematic Democratic pickup than PA-18, with one important item that I think needs to be addressed as part of a potential compare/contrast type analysis.

Although the term Ancestral Democrat has been bandied about within the context of PA-18, the reality is that this "Current" district was basically designed to put the historically most reliably Republican areas (South Pittsburgh Suburban Communities) into the district as a bulwark against the Ancestral Democrats of Washington and Greene Counties ( +9 D in '00, virtually 50/50 in '04, marginal 'Pub in '08), in the event of a major Democratic Swing....

1.) Sure the "Ancestral Democratic" Washington and Greene counties swung harder Dem in the 2017 Special Election compared to the '18 GE than the Southern Pittsburgh Suburbs, but it was ultimately the solidly reliably Republican voters of the 'Burbs/ Exurbs that were the ultimate spike in the head to Republican efforts to retain this CD.

*** Note, there are some Ancestral Democratic communities in South Allegheny, with more similar historical, economic, and demographic patterns to those of parts of Washington/Greene County, and although I haven't covered them yet on the PA-18 Results thread, places like Carnegie PA swing to mind, and certainly I would certainly imagine that there are a fair number of Senior Citizens that remember the collapse of the local economy in the Reagan '80s, shifted Republican later, etc....

2.) In PA CD-18 you arguably had two positive developments both move in the favorable direction of the Democratic Party:

      A.) Reliably Pittsburgh Upper Middle-Class Republican 'Burbs that were in most communities (Outside of Mt. Lebanon and Upper St. Clair) fairly resistant to the 15-20% swings that we saw in many similar such communities between '12 and '16, swing hard Dem in the '18 CD-18 election with High Turnout.

     B.) "Ancestral Democratic" voters that shifted heavily from Dem > Pub between '00 and '16 coming back home to Lamb in '18, and actually looked closer to Obama/McCain '08 GE numbers in places like Greene and Washington than anything else.

3.) Both of these core truths about the 2018 PA CD-18 election start to become extremely problematic when looking at the Political Geography of AZ CD-08.

      A.) These suburban areas within this part of Phoenix are generally some of the Oldest and most historically overwhelmingly Republican parts of Phoenix, and those areas where we did not really see the major swings towards HRC that we saw in many other places.

Additionally, one needs to look at the context of AZ-08 Seniors/Retirees, where many of these Southern California retirees moving to the dry heat and subdivisions of the desert, at a time in many cases before or shortly after Republicans in California chose to politicize immigration as a wedge issue thanks to Governor Pete Wilson....

The politics of immigration plays much differently among the Seniors here, than it does in Southwest Pennsylvania (Essentially a Non-Issue), Violent Crime (Suburban Pittsburgh--- "Happens in rough neighborhoods in the City, not a Racial gig" vs Older Anglo Suburban Phoenix-- "Violence from Mexican and Central American Gangs").

       B.) There isn't really anything approaching an "Ancestral Democratic Base"....  The closest thing approximating might be a slow rising mixed coalition of Arizona Latinos rapidly shifting Democrat as a result of rejections from the National Republican Party, combined with various knowledge sector workers living on the fringes of the 'Burbs and 'Exurbs to deal with Phoenix Metro Rush hour traffic in exchange for cheaper, bigger, and newer house, throw in a decent chunk of Millennial Salt and Pepper into the Mix, etc....

Obviously the growing Anglo Democratic Coalition is a lot more than all that, but let's just put it this way, it is a VERY recent phenomenon.

Had a few previous posts on a couple threads that I quickly pulled up, and have been planning on looking more at the Maricopa CD-08 in detailed levels, since I have a few theories as to what a potential long-shot Dem pickup of this seat would look like.

See a few of my Posts below on the attached links, although I'm pretty sure there are a few more out there when it comes to Maricopa County:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277087.msg5905171;topicseen#msg5905171

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=277333.msg5911449;topicseen#msg5911449

To close, I could envision a few potential "Outs" to use a poker metaphor for the Dem candidate to have the "Boss Hand" after the fifth card flops, but right now "pre-flop" looking like the Pub Candidate is sitting on pocket Queens against an AK (Ace-King) Suited.

[Podgy the Bear]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

She is very good and has a good future.  She can break into the 40s (the Democrats have consistently stayed in the 30s when they fielded candidates)-- and if so, that's another positive sign for the Democrats.

[Rhenna]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

She is very good and has a good future.  She can break into the 40s (the Democrats have consistently stayed in the 30s when they fielded candidates)-- and if so, that's another positive sign for the Democrats.

I hope she can run in another district in 2020 if one becomes open. Or hopefully a major scandal hits Lesko. But I doubt Republicans will let another AL-Sen or PA-18 car crash happen.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

She is very good and has a good future.  She can break into the 40s (the Democrats have consistently stayed in the 30s when they fielded candidates)-- and if so, that's another positive sign for the Democrats.

I hope she can run in another district in 2020 if one becomes open. Or hopefully a major scandal hits Lesko. But I doubt Republicans will let another AL-Sen or PA-18 car crash happen.

Yeah we had a good run, but there's still November to look forward to.

[136or142]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

She is very good and has a good future.  She can break into the 40s (the Democrats have consistently stayed in the 30s when they fielded candidates)-- and if so, that's another positive sign for the Democrats.

I hope she can run in another district in 2020 if one becomes open. Or hopefully a major scandal hits Lesko. But I doubt Republicans will let another AL-Sen or PA-18 car crash happen.

Yeah we had a good run, but there's still November to look forward to.

Ohio-12

[King Lear]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

[KingSweden]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

[Progressive Pessimist]

It'll be a shame when Tipirneni loses. She's a really good candidate, just in the wrong district.

She is very good and has a good future.  She can break into the 40s (the Democrats have consistently stayed in the 30s when they fielded candidates)-- and if so, that's another positive sign for the Democrats.

I hope she can run in another district in 2020 if one becomes open. Or hopefully a major scandal hits Lesko. But I doubt Republicans will let another AL-Sen or PA-18 car crash happen.

Yeah we had a good run, but there's still November to look forward to.

Ohio-12

I forgot about that one. Yeah that could be interesting. I don't want to get my hopes up, but I said that for the Alabama special election and the PA-18 special, and this seat is quite a bit less Republican than those.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

[KingSweden]

This race is Safe Republican, their is no reason Democrats should waste money here, that would be better spent defending the 10 Trump-Democratic Senate seats, or going on the offensive in the 25 Clinton-Republican House seats.

How much do you think Republicans win by here? I also think this is safe republican, but the margins could be interesting.

You’re unlikely to get serious analysis from King Lear, just FYI

Are you telling me I'm not going to get serious, gripping analysis from the guy that predicted +20 Roy Moore, +10 Rick Saccone, and +3 Gillespie?

I regret that I must be the bearer of such dire news