Probabilites on Sanders and Warren running

[Mr. Morden]

What probability would you assign to each of these 4 scenarios?

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

50%
20%
5%
25%

[Lord Halifax]

What probability would you assign to each of these 4 scenarios?

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

1) 85%
2) 0%
3) 0%
4) 15% (if Sanders is either dead or too frail)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What probability would you assign to each of these 4 scenarios?

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

1) 85%
2) 0%
3) 0%
4) 15% (if Sanders is either dead or too frail)

Pretty much this.

[junior chįmp]

Sanders is definitely running

Harry Reid has been pushing Warren to run for quite some time but I think she's principled enough not to run should it split the progressive vote

[Burke Bro]

1. 75%
2. 20%
3. <1%
4. 5%

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

What probability would you assign to each of these 4 scenarios?

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

1) 85%
2) 0%
3) 0%
4) 15% (if Sanders is either dead or too frail)

Pretty much this.

^.

Seriously, the fact that people think that 3 is going to happen is simply absurd to me. If they were only ideologically aligned, fine. If they were only close colleagues in the Senate, fine. But they appear together at events, and have co authored op-eds. Clearly whichever of them is running (hint: it's Sanders) is coordinating in some respect with the other.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

50%
2%
0%
48%

[MasterJedi]

If Sanders runs (I'd say 75% yes) then Warren won't. If he doesn't Warren might (I'd say 45% yes).

[Mr. Morden]

I've said before that I don't think that either Sanders or Biden are formidable enough "frontrunners" that they'd scare off a big chunk of the field from running just by virtue of their presence in the race.  That said, Sanders could potentially scare off Warren specifically, and her staying out of the race would certainly seem to improve his chances of winning the nomination.

Given that, if Sanders is actually interested in running, I wonder if he'll make some dramatic show of his intentions just after the midterms, like starting an exploratory committee during this calendar year, just to scare off Warren and maybe anyone else in his "lane" in the primary contest.

[here2view]

1. 33%
2. 60%
3. 1%
4. 30%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cory Booker or Gillibrand will be the nominee

Dems aren't risking nominating Sanders, for another 4 years of Trump or Pence

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cory Booker or Gillibrand will be the nominee

Dems aren't risking nominating Sanders, for another 4 years of Trump or Pence

They already played it safe with the Tom Dewey of our time last time, and lost.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Cory Booker or Gillibrand will be the nominee

Dems aren't risking nominating Sanders, for another 4 years of Trump or Pence

But risk running a Hilary-lite to give Trump another 4 years?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Voters wanted someone new in 2016 and Clinton provided a 3rd term Obama administration. Trump failed to provide that change, and so have the GOP 16/20 Congressional elections. Its time for change again.

And a united Democratic president with Congress and SCOTUS will provide that change.

[junior chįmp]

Cory Booker or Gillibrand will be the nominee

Dems aren't risking nominating Sanders, for another 4 years of Trump or Pence

2000: Al Gore is the experienced VP of a president with a 70% approval rating....he can't lose!
2004: John Kerry is a decorated war hero....no way he can lose!
2008: Hillary will be the nominee....nobody will vote for a black guy with a Muslim name!
2016: Hillary is the experienced candidate who's husband was one of the most popular presidents ever, Trump can't win....Nate Silver told me so!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GOP have been winning elections most of the time, but Trump, with the Russia probe, failed to provide the change that he promised.  Dems can bring about that change.

[Senator-elect Spark]

1) Sanders runs for the 2020 Dem. presidential nomination, while Warren doesn’t

2) Warren runs, while Sanders doesn’t

3) Both Sanders and Warren run

4) Neither Sanders nor Warren run

1) 75%
2) 15%
3) 1%
4) 25%

[junior chįmp]

GOP have been winning elections most of the time, but Trump, with the Russia probe, failed to provide the change that he promised.  Dems can bring about that change.

Which faction of the opposition party was running things when these losses were occuring?

[Dr. MB]

1. 45%
2. 5%
3. 0%
4. 50%

[hokey398]

1) 25

2) 20

3) 5

4) 75

[Mr. Morden]

*bump* ing in light of all of Warren's recent moves.  In light of her releasing her tax returns, releasing her academic records, announcing that she's going to talk more to the press on the Hill, giving a more open-ended non-denial as compared to her previous "I'm not running", proposing new anti-corruption legislation, etc., does it now look like she's more likely to run as compared to six months ago, perhaps even if Sanders also runs?

[Jags]

Funny how some say the Dems need new blood, but support Pelosi and Schumer for leadership.

[RaphaelDLG]

Funny how some say the Dems need new blood, but support Pelosi and Schumer for leadership.

I don't think we need new blood, and I don't support either of them for leadership. 

The types of Dems saying that are the electeds associated with those two or DC cable news commentators haha

[BlueSwan]

*bump* ing in light of all of Warren's recent moves.  In light of her releasing her tax returns, releasing her academic records, announcing that she's going to talk more to the press on the Hill, giving a more open-ended non-denial as compared to her previous "I'm not running", proposing new anti-corruption legislation, etc., does it now look like she's more likely to run as compared to six months ago, perhaps even if Sanders also runs?

Yes. But I always found it likely that she would run. More so than Sanders, infact.