The race appears to be in a dead heat (slanted towards Clinton) until 1) the Wikileaks release in early October and 2) the Comey letter in late October. After that, things slide rapidly in Cruz's direction. Turnout decreases relative to 2012 as many independents find both major-party candidates to be unpalatable. Cruz carries Heck, Ayotte, and Glenn across the line, but Toomey is defeated in PA.
Cruz/Haley (R): 302 EV, 48.8% PVClinton/Kaine (D): 236 EV, 46.7% PVStein/Baraka (G): 0 EV, 3.1% PVTURNOUT: 54.1% (-0.8%)
