Kilgore 43%, Kaine 40%, Potts 5% in New Rasmussen Poll

[TheresNoMoney]

New poll shows Kaine pulling to within 3% of Kilgore. 500 likely voters. +/- 4.5% MOE

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Virginia%20Governor_September%2016.htm

[Moooooo]

Well looky here, we got ourself a race.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, it's certainly better than Kilgore being 6 or 7 points clear of Kaine

The problem for Kaine is that he isn't Warner. I'd guess, he needs a very highturnout in urban areas to offset imminent losses in rural areas

Much will depend on how far Potts into Kilgore's support base

Dave

[ian]

That's always nice to see!

[AuH2O]

Lookie here, a Margin of Error.

[Sam Spade]

Another poll on the old proverbial fire.  

Let me be the first to play devil's advocate here and put a little caution on reading these results.

This is one poll, showing Kilgore up 3.  The last three Rasmussen assertions came in at Kilgore +6.  This could be real movement or it could be just statistical noise within the MOE.

What will help us ascertain which of the two this is are future polls that show the race benchmarking around three percent or lower.  If the race is truly at this point, we should see at least one poll tied in the upcoming days and months or a slight Kaine lead.

Once we have three or four more polls showing the above-stated result, then a conclusion based on those facts would be warranted, imo.

The fact that there are still a good bit of undecideds is what keeps this a race for me personally.

[Democratic Hawk]

Lookie here, a Margin of Error.

... which means it could be Kaine 43% - Kilgore 40% or Kilgore 46% - Kaine 40%

Dave

[Ben.]

Lookie here, a Margin of Error.

... which means it could be Kaine 43% - Kilgore 40% or Kilgore 46% - Kaine 40%

Dave

Beat me to it... damn you!

Poll is good news i think that the debate is airing on sunday? which could help Kaine, as i've said i think he'll get a second win as polling day draws closer... that doesn't mean he'll win but he's still got a 50/50 shot IMHO and always had, true he's no Warner, but Kilgore is comming across as a fairly weak candidate IMO.   

[TheresNoMoney]

Basically, it's a statistical dead heat.

[Keystone Phil]

Basically, it's a statistical dead heat.

Welcome to the Democratic Fantasy Land!

Where the Democrats are always winning (or close to it)!

[TheresNoMoney]

Welcome to the Democratic Fantasy Land!

No, it's simple math. The MOE is +/- 4.5% and Kaine is down 3%, which falls within the MOE.

[Sam Spade]

I can see that no one has bothered to notice my post above.  Not surprising.

[Moooooo]

I can see that no one has bothered to notice my post above.  Not surprising.

I read your post Sam da' man.

[Sam Spade]

I can see that no one has bothered to notice my post above.  Not surprising.

I read your post Sam da' man.

Thanks, Nick. 

Anyway, I hope more polls will show up soon so that we can get a real feeling as to whether this is real movement or statistical noise within the MOE.

[ATFFL]

Since all of you are citing Scott as gospel on this, you all accept that his Bush approval number is gospel as well, correct?

[CARLHAYDEN]

Since all of you are citing Scott as gospel on this, you all accept that his Bush approval number is gospel as well, correct?

Actually, as I believe Vorlon previously noted, Scott tends to be more accurate on national than state polls due to his methodology.

[ATFFL]

Since all of you are citing Scott as gospel on this, you all accept that his Bush approval number is gospel as well, correct?

Actually, as I believe Vorlon previously noted, Scott tends to be more accurate on national than state polls due to his methodology.

I believe much of the difference is in the tracking nature of his poll.    For example, I am not a huge fan of one day snap polls like all of his state stuff currently is.  You can't look at the first day's polling sample and say something is off and fix it on the second and third day of polling. 

Though his hard weights can move things around too.

[Ben.]

Some more 'good' news for Kaine.

The latest Mason Dixon Poll for the Richmond Times-Dispatch has the candidates at Kilgore 41% Kaine 40% Potts 6%.

Last time round the poll had Kaine ahead by 1 piont and Potts at 9(!) Which many saw as suggestive that the poll might have been a stray... but either way a shift of one, 1 piont lead for another is hardly significant other than to suggest that the race remains very close at this stage.

The latest poll seems to suggest that the contest is still very close, and to me at least it'll come down to independents more than any other group to decide this, and I think Kaine seems to be clawing his way out of his long time rut in the polls, I always maintained that as the campaign heated up Kaine might get his second wind.   

[danwxman]

The debate is on C-SPAN now.

Kilgore is going to be the Republican McGreevey.

Oh, and Kaine seems like a much better candidate.

[Alcon]

As much as my gut told me that this race was even less close than 3 points...it's Mason-Dixon.

[RJ]

Yes, Dan and I were just discussing how "gay" Kil-gore acts. In any event, I like both he and Kaine.

I'm glad someone besides me said this. That was the exact impression I got from Kilgore.