Why is Missouri trending Republican so rapidly?

[Suburbia]

The Democratic Party has not won Missouri since 1996 with President Bill Clinton's reelection.

1996: Clinton/Gore wins Missouri 47%-41%-10%
2000: Bush/Cheney wins Missouri 50%-47%
2004: Bush/Cheney wins Missouri 53%-46%
2008: McCain/Palin wins Missouri 49.4%-49.2%
2012: Romney/Ryan wins Missouri 53%-44%
2016: Trump/Pence wins Missouri 56%-38%

It seems that Missouri is no longer a bellwether state, a state that determines the presidency. Despite Missouri electing Democrats like former Gov. Jay Nixon and U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill, the state is Republican-leaning.

Is Missouri now a red state? Why?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

C'mon, when half the state is practically Arkansas, are you really surprised? It blows my mind to see folks call it a Midwestern state when culturally, it is Southern outside of the STL Metro and KC. I heard more Southern accents here than even Houston sometimes.

[RINO Tom]

C'mon, when half the state is practically Arkansas, are you really surprised? It blows my mind to see folks call it a Midwestern state when culturally, it is Southern outside of the STL Metro and KC. I heard more Southern accents here than even Houston sometimes.

Even if I agreed with the bolded (I'd argue that Northern Missouri has a lot in common with Southern Iowa ... maybe "rural" but not really "Southern" culturally), here is how Missouri's population breaks down:

34.75% St. Louis metro area
27.13% Southern Missouri
19.87% Kansas City metro
11.09% Central Missouri
  7.16% Northern Missouri

So, over half (54.62%) is from areas you yourself have called culturally Midwestern, and adding Northern Missouri to it, you get 61.78% (only marginally less than the percent of Illinois in the Chicago metro area).  I think it's fair to call it a Midwestern state, even if Southern Missouri is very culturally Southern.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

C'mon, when half the state is practically Arkansas, are you really surprised? It blows my mind to see folks call it a Midwestern state when culturally, it is Southern outside of the STL Metro and KC. I heard more Southern accents here than even Houston sometimes.

Even if I agreed with the bolded (I'd argue that Northern Missouri has a lot in common with Southern Iowa ... maybe "rural" but not really "Southern" culturally), here is how Missouri's population breaks down:

34.75% St. Louis metro area
27.13% Southern Missouri
19.87% Kansas City metro
11.09% Central Missouri
  7.16% Northern Missouri

So, over half (54.62%) is from areas you yourself have called culturally Midwestern, and adding Northern Missouri to it, you get 61.78% (only marginally less than the percent of Illinois in the Chicago metro area).  I think it's fair to call it a Midwestern state, even if Southern Missouri is very culturally Southern.

I didn't know so much of the population lives in those 2 cities alone. However, it still doesn't match the power that Cook County has to affect your state, though. I mean, when you think of Missouri, you think the Ozarks, BBQ, and lots of evangelical Prostestants...all markers of the South.

[TML]

Here's why MO has transformed from a swing state to a solid red state:

-Missouri's fastest growing areas are suburban/rural, not urban.
-The two major cities (Kansas City and St. Louis) have seen population declines compared to the mid-20th century.
-Black and Hispanic people make up a smaller percentage of the overall population compared to many other states.

[RINO Tom]

Here's why MO has transformed from a swing state to a solid red state:

-Missouri's fastest growing areas are suburban/rural, not urban.
-The two major cities (Kansas City and St. Louis) have seen population declines compared to the mid-20th century.
-Black and Hispanic people make up a smaller percentage of the overall population compared to many other states.

Plus ancestral "Southern" Democrats in many rural areas dying off and their children switching parties.

[MT Treasurer]

Here's why MO has transformed from a swing state to a solid red state:

-Missouri's fastest growing areas are suburban/rural, not urban.
-The two major cities (Kansas City and St. Louis) have seen population declines compared to the mid-20th century.
-Black and Hispanic people make up a smaller percentage of the overall population compared to many other states.

Plus ancestral "Southern" Democrats in many rural areas dying off and their children switching parties.

All of the above, plus Democrats moving to the left on social issues. But honestly, I find it hard to believe that a “solid red state” would send people like Claire McCaskill and (almost) Jason Kander to the Senate. It’s easily less Republican than WV, KY, AR, LA and TN and very elastic.

[jamestroll]

Here's why MO has transformed from a swing state to a solid red state:

-Missouri's fastest growing areas are suburban/rural, not urban.
-The two major cities (Kansas City and St. Louis) have seen population declines compared to the mid-20th century.
-Black and Hispanic people make up a smaller percentage of the overall population compared to many other states.

Plus ancestral "Southern" Democrats in many rural areas dying off and their children switching parties.

All of the above, plus Democrats moving to the left on social issues. But honestly, I find it hard to believe that a “solid red state” would send people like Claire McCaskill and (almost) Jason Kander to the Senate. It’s easily less Republican than WV, KY, AR, LA and TN and very elastic.

Reasons stated above I agree with.

2016 was obviously an over performance for the GOP. McCaskill may well lose this year but largely due to unpopularity. Kind of reminds me of PA Gov 2014 if we wish to make comparisons.

Will be interesting to see if suburban and exurban Missouri swing Democratic though.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

C'mon, when half the state is practically Arkansas, are you really surprised? It blows my mind to see folks call it a Midwestern state when culturally, it is Southern outside of the STL Metro and KC. I heard more Southern accents here than even Houston sometimes.

Even if I agreed with the bolded (I'd argue that Northern Missouri has a lot in common with Southern Iowa ... maybe "rural" but not really "Southern" culturally), here is how Missouri's population breaks down:

34.75% St. Louis metro area
27.13% Southern Missouri
19.87% Kansas City metro
11.09% Central Missouri
  7.16% Northern Missouri

So, over half (54.62%) is from areas you yourself have called culturally Midwestern, and adding Northern Missouri to it, you get 61.78% (only marginally less than the percent of Illinois in the Chicago metro area).  I think it's fair to call it a Midwestern state, even if Southern Missouri is very culturally Southern.

Have you seen the county map for largest religious denominations in Missouri? It's overwhelmingly Southern Baptist outside of the KC and STL metros. Even Northern MI is overwhelming Southern Baptist.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Most of the state is pretty damn Republican to begin with. Isn't it just St. Louis and Kansas City that have kept it competitive?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Rural, overly religious whites fill the state outside of Kansas City and St. Louis.

[RINO Tom]

Rural, overly religious whites fill the state outside of Kansas City and St. Louis.

Outside of those METROS (both of which have Republican suburbs), that is.

[TDAS04]

Rural, overly religious whites fill the state outside of Kansas City and St. Louis.

Outside of those METROS (both of which have Republican suburbs), that is.

The outer suburbs, yes, they’re still Republican, but St. Louis County has voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections.

[Beet]

Robert Fulton is one of the greatest GOP strategists of the 21st century. The party has been steaming upstream along the Mississippi River for 20 years. First, they took Louisiana and Arkansas, and made Missouri a swing state. Then, they took Missouri and made Iowa a swing state. Now, they have taken Iowa and made Minnesota a swing state!

[Dr. MB]

Most of the state is pretty damn Republican to begin with. Isn't it just St. Louis and Kansas City that have kept it competitive?

Before recently, the Dems could always rely on some ancestral southern/bootheel counties. SL/KC have remained just as Democratic as before, it's the rural counties moving from 60% D to 70% R.

[AGA]

Whites in general have shifted to right politically in recent years, and Missouri is a very white state. Also, the urban population in the state has decreased relative to the rest of the state's population.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not, actually, it's becoming how WVA is, populous at the state level.  That's why Claire McCaskill, Joe Manchin, Heitkamp and Joe Donnelly can win, with a Trump presidency, not a Hillary presidency. It bucks the status quo, but has conservative credentials.

[pbrower2a]

Evangelical Christians, Southern Baptist variety outside of greater Kay-Cee and Saint Louie. The problem for Missouri Democrats is that the two biggest urban areas centered in Missouri straddle the Illinois and Kansas state lines.

The aging suburbs of Kansas City and St. Louis have drifted D, but the rest of the state makes it hard to believe that Harry S. Truman was from the state. Evangelical Christians have more faith in the out-of-state plutocrat than the educated professional in their own town. Go figure.

[blacknwhiterose]

More than 50% of Missouri is culturally akin to Arkansas and Kentucky, that's why.   

[Suburbia]

Can Democrats try to have a Gov. Nixon '08-'12 map by talking about jobs, health care?

[Del Tachi]

Exit polls from 2016 showed that only 20% of the state's electorate is non-White, and college-educated and non-college educated Whites voted for Trump 61% and 71%, respectively.  2004 exit polls showed Kerry winning 48% of the non-college educated vote.

[Person Man]

Populism!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because Latinos and Blacks are becoming the majority and they are in the 'SUNBELT STACK'

[Zaybay]

MO is an incredibly interesting state politically. Its sort of the anti-California, where CA represents the epiphany of the weaknesses of the Republican Party(lack of minority outreach, terrible performances in urban areas, rapidly D trending suburbs), MO represents the epiphany of the Democratic Party's electoral weaknesses.

MO wasnt always such a Safely Republican state, however. The state was known for being a bellwether for the nation, perfectly in the middle. Think of it as OH or FL. But 3 main factors caused it to head towards the Rs at a rapid pace.

1. Evangelicals- There was once a time where Evangelicals formed the backbone of the Democratic Party, along with the Southern states. These days, however, are over, with Evangelicals providing Republicans with their best margins of any demographic group. The problem for Democrats is how Evangelical the state is:


Besides the Core Metros in the East and West, most of the state subscribes to the faith, making D outreach in the region rather poor.

2. Urban Decline- In the late 1900s, much of the United States faced a conundrum known as Urban Decline. Basically, the cities of the US started to bleed population, and the rurals/exurbs/suburbs grew in size. Of course, that was back in the 1900s, and most urban areas have made a large comeback. But poor MO, with St. Louis and Kansas, never saw an increase in urban areas. In fact, the rurals and exurbs have only increased in population, which makes winning the state a bit difficult for a party that gets its support from Urbanites.

3. Geographic Trends- As we all know, politics are becoming more and more split geographically, with rurals moving right, along with exurbs and small towns, with more suburban, largely populated areas moving left. Well, for Democrats, MO gave them the worst of both worlds. For the rural areas, the shift here was immensely fast, moving R at an unheard of pace. Now, of course, this could be countered by the suburbs around St. Louis moving towards the Ds. The only problem is that the suburbs in MO didnt, and still dont, function like OH suburbs, basically moving D, but at a snail's pace. This does mean, however, that the state will move Left, eventually, but thats a long way's away.

This isnt to say that MO is AL levels of unwinnable for Democrats, they just saw their auditor get reelected. But that same election, their highest ranking official, Claire McCaskill, went down in defeat, going from the unstoppable witch of MO, to just another gain for the Republican Party.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Simply put, the state is riddled with Deplorables galore.

There's this false narrative perpetuated in the rural parts of this state that Democrats are anti-white, anti-God, anti-America, blah blah blah. They believe any and everything that's said on Fox News. The whole Ferguson fiasco just reinforced those warped worldviews that somehow Democrats are the anti-law and order party, even though they steadfastly support a clown who's doing everything to undermine the rule of law in this country, but they don't believe that because they think that he's the Second Coming of Christ (again, even though he's the most un-Christian-like president we've ever had). Basically, it's the whole God guns and gays thing.