CA-30 and CA-44: Likely D vs. D runoffs

[Greedo punched first]

This runoff will be D vs. D. Can Brown make it close, or will Barragan win in a landslide? 2016 candidate Isadore Hall endorses Brown.

[KingSweden]

Didn’t Hall get in not long ago?

[Greedo punched first]

Didn’t Hall get in not long ago?

No. He probably just filed in order to settle debt. He was in debt after 2016. He now endorses Brown.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, with Aja Brown in, there is no way in hell Dash makes it to the runoff. She was never gonna make it in the first place but this just solidifies it.

[Greedo punched first]

Yeah, with Aja Brown in, there is no way in hell Dash makes it to the runoff. She was never gonna make it in the first place but this just solidifies it.

There are now 4 candidates: Barragan (D), Dash (R), Brown (D), and Saavedra (R). Who would have made the runoff in a 3-way primary without Brown? Would it have been Dash or Saavedra?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why would Barragan lose?
Has she done anything to aggravate her base?

[Figueira]

Wait, I've actually heard of Aja Brown. She seems like a solid politician. But why would Barragan lose to her?

[Greedo punched first]

Why would Barragan lose?
Has she done anything to aggravate her base?

No, Barragan hasn't aggravated her base. Brown is running because she doesn't want Dash in the runoff. It now looks like only one of the two districts that include Long Beach will have a D vs. R runoff, and it isn't CA-44.

[Tintrlvr]

Why would Barragan lose?
Has she done anything to aggravate her base?

The district has a recent history of bruising political battles between candidates with black and Latino vote bases, including Barragan's initial race in 2016 against Isadore Hall. Aja Brown is clearly the latest candidate to consolidate the black vote against Barragan and the Latino vote (which will have much lower turnout and probably be less consolidated behind Barragan). Given the demographics, that's probably not enough for Brown to win, but it's certainly possible.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Btw, can we not make a new thread for CA-44 everytime something new happens?

[Greedo punched first]

Which D vs. D runoff will be closer: CA-44, Nanette Barragan vs. Aja Brown; or CA-30, Brad Sherman vs. Raji Rab?

[But Muh Username!!!]

Barragan/Brown by a hair

[Greedo punched first]

This scandal involving Matt Dababneh might help Raji Rab.

[JoeDespicable]

Mark Reed is running again (Schrage is out), he is going to be the only Republican on the ticket. Though Raji is by far the best Democrat on the ballot... I, unfortunately, don't think he is going to pull this one off.

Reed is going to skate to the General Election... and then get DESTROYED by Sherman.

[Greedo punched first]

Mark Reed is running again (Schrage is out), he is going to be the only Republican on the ticket. Though Raji is by far the best Democrat on the ballot... I, unfortunately, don't think he is going to pull this one off.

Reed is going to skate to the General Election... and then get DESTROYED by Sherman.

Where did you hear Schrage dropped out? I couldn't find that. Do you personally know Reed or Schrage?

[JoeDespicable]

Mark Reed is running again (Schrage is out), he is going to be the only Republican on the ticket. Though Raji is by far the best Democrat on the ballot... I, unfortunately, don't think he is going to pull this one off.

Reed is going to skate to the General Election... and then get DESTROYED by Sherman.

Where did you hear Schrage dropped out? I couldn't find that. Do you personally know Reed or Schrage?

-->vcstar.com/story/news/local/2018/03/09/ventura-county-congressional-races-likely-bring-drama/391371002/
-->en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018

[Greedo punched first]

The article doesn't mention anything about Schrage dropping out or even mention him at all. Maybe they haven't heard of him?

[JoeDespicable]

The Wikipedia Post has everyone who is running:

Brad Sherman
Mark Reed
Raji Rab
Jon Pelzer
Rick Dawson

Those are the only ones who have presumably qualified.

[Greedo punched first]

Could Rab beat Reed for the second runoff spot? Reed hasn't raised any money. Will there be any primary polling for CA-30? Rab is taking the race seriously. Reed is a joke.

[Vosem]

CA-44 was drawn to elect an African-American Representative, but elected a Hispanic in a 2016 open race on the back of unusually high urban Hispanic turnout while Trump was at the top of the ticket. Barragan hasn't really aggravated anyone, but there's definitely a chance that she could be primaried by a black politician under a more normal turnout paradigm (though, given that she's a pretty uncontroversial incumbent, probably not).

[Greedo punched first]

CA-44 was drawn to elect an African-American Representative, but elected a Hispanic in a 2016 open race on the back of unusually high urban Hispanic turnout while Trump was at the top of the ticket. Barragan hasn't really aggravated anyone, but there's definitely a chance that she could be primaried by a black politician under a more normal turnout paradigm (though, given that she's a pretty uncontroversial incumbent, probably not).

I noticed that many districts in the area that have large minority populations are represented by a white Representative.

[Greedo punched first]

Reed isn't running he hasn't filed or announced must be a mistake on wikipedia's part only thing to indicate hes running is his website now says reed for congress 2018 no events have been planned at all and everything on his website is the same from 2016 except the year. and Schrage is still in the race so wikipedia did mess up. Rab is probably going to make the run off I've seen 20-30 Rab signs in the district

Type in "UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE, 30th District" in the "Office Title" section of this link. Reed is running. Reed qualified for the ballot. Schrage so far hasn't qualified.

[Greedo punched first]

If Rab advances, is Sherman vulnerable?