MD GOV Mason Dixon: Hogan +15 Baker/Kamenetz, +17 Jealous
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  MD GOV Mason Dixon: Hogan +15 Baker/Kamenetz, +17 Jealous
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Author Topic: MD GOV Mason Dixon: Hogan +15 Baker/Kamenetz, +17 Jealous  (Read 3104 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: March 02, 2018, 11:14:55 AM »

http://www.wbal.com/article/297785/2/poll-hogan-approval-rate-high-gets-one-third-of-democrats-support

Hogan 51 Baker 36
Hogan 49 Kamenetz 34
Hogan 50 Jealous 33
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 01:22:57 PM »

Ok, this race aint worth it.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2018, 02:19:49 PM »

This'll close once a nominee is official, but lean R nonetheless

Only reason to write this race off is if you decide Hogan isn't 'that bad'. I don't know enough about Maryland to say whether an average Democrat ought to hate Hogan or not, but from what I've heard he's more pragmatic than he is moderate, and if that is the case I don't see why Dems should write this off as a lost cause without at least spending a bit through the summer and seeing if it moves the needle. If not, pull out come September or October, but there's no reason to give up on this race if you're a Dem in early March lol
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 02:58:32 PM »

Well, Hogan's clearly better off than Erlich was at this time in 2006.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 03:37:52 PM »

Not only is Hogan in a better position/more popular than Ehlrich was, he also has the benefit of a crowded primary filled with B list contenders rather than a cleared primary field for the state party's rising star(o'malley was seen as one of the brightest young stars in the Democratic party before he became a joke) If jealous or Madeleno get the nomination I expect democrats to save their money and spend it in more important races
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 08:48:27 PM »

It's Maryland.
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 08:56:07 PM »

Hitting that magic 50 is always a good sign for the incumbent.

A poll released a couple of days before the 1994 election for NY-Gov had Cuomo up 50-36.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 09:03:54 PM »

Baker should win this race
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2018, 11:20:48 PM »

Bad numbers for Hogan
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2018, 11:54:09 PM »

A better effort would be to invest in getting the supermajority in the state house back.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2018, 11:59:27 PM »

A better effort would be to invest in getting the supermajority in the state house back.

They still have it.  Maryland is a 60% veto override state.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2018, 12:04:26 AM »

A better effort would be to invest in getting the supermajority in the state house back.

They still have it.  Maryland is a 60% veto override state.

Really, I did not know that. NVM then. I guess the next goal is to aim to take lower offices in council and county executives then in places like Ann Arundel, Talbot, Frederick, etc.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2018, 01:08:07 AM »

A better effort would be to invest in getting the supermajority in the state house back.

They still have it.  Maryland is a 60% veto override state.

Really, I did not know that. NVM then. I guess the next goal is to aim to take lower offices in council and county executives then in places like Ann Arundel, Talbot, Frederick, etc.

Now, on the other hand, if Hogan wins big enough that he succeeds in knocking Dems below 60% in the lower house (they are currently at 64.5%), that would be a major coup for Maryland R's as there are no 2020 state legislative elections.  That's almost an automatic R+2 in the House in 2022 and they might even be able to contest control of the lower chamber of the legislature on a court map given how packed MD Dems are.

If Dems ignore the race because Hogan is up 5X/3X and someone unremarkable wins the primary, they could be making a big mistake.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2018, 01:11:16 AM »

A better effort would be to invest in getting the supermajority in the state house back.

They still have it.  Maryland is a 60% veto override state.

Really, I did not know that. NVM then. I guess the next goal is to aim to take lower offices in council and county executives then in places like Ann Arundel, Talbot, Frederick, etc.

Now, on the other hand, if Hogan wins big enough that he succeeds in knocking Dems below 60% in the lower house (they are currently at 64.5%), that would be a major coup for Maryland R's as there are no 2020 state legislative elections.  That's almost an automatic R+2 in the House in 2022 and they might even be able to contest control of the lower chamber of the legislature on a court map given how packed MD Dems are.

If Dems ignore the race because Hogan is up 5X/3X and someone unremarkable wins the primary, they could be making a big mistake.

Lol no dude.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2018, 05:22:37 AM »

Maryland will send one extra R to congress once Kennedy overturns the map, but it won't matter because that extra R will be joined by 2 or 3 extra Ds from PA and probably others
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2018, 12:00:35 PM »

Maryland will send one extra R to congress once Kennedy overturns the map, but it won't matter because that extra R will be joined by 2 or 3 extra Ds from PA and probably others

Are they overturning Maryland and NC for 2018? I would love for that to happen, but I doubt it will.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2018, 03:51:04 PM »

Maryland will send one extra R to congress once Kennedy overturns the map, but it won't matter because that extra R will be joined by 2 or 3 extra Ds from PA and probably others

Are they overturning Maryland and NC for 2018? I would love for that to happen, but I doubt it will.
If that happens and the court divides on partisan lines, it's hypocritical for everyone but Anthony Kennedy to overturn one map but not the other.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2018, 05:17:44 PM »

Tilt R, Glorious News!
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2018, 05:23:16 PM »

Still early, and the campaign hasn't really started yet, but this is good news for Hogan. I expect the polls to tighten once the Democrats get to introduce themselves better.
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Doimper
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2018, 05:25:01 PM »

Lean D.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #20 on: March 05, 2018, 05:25:57 PM »

As you can see, Bernie's ideals are well-loved nationwide! Just look at how well Ben Jealous is doing!

Seriously, how the hell do you trail a Republican by 17 points in deep blue Maryland? Sad!
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #21 on: March 05, 2018, 05:32:26 PM »

>Polls show the Republican leading by double digits
> "Lean D"
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: March 05, 2018, 07:39:51 PM »

This is pretty unbelievable and funny given whats happening in VA. But yeah, this race will obviously tighten significantly, up to the point where I think Hogan loses on election day. Moving this from Lean D to Tossup, though.

Basically this is for Democrats what WV-SEN is for Republicans. Far from easy, but winnable with a strong candidate if they can effectively tie the incumbent to the national party, turnout favors them and 2018 is a continuation of 2016 trends at all levels.
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History505
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2018, 05:31:06 AM »

This race is obviously going to tighten. This is Maryland we are talking about.
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RJ
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« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2018, 11:59:30 AM »

Geez, with these numbers you'd thing Hogan is running against a Klink/Schultz ticket
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