GA-Mason Dixon: Cagle, Abrams lead primaries by double digits; Cagle leads in GE
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  GA-Mason Dixon: Cagle, Abrams lead primaries by double digits; Cagle leads in GE
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Author Topic: GA-Mason Dixon: Cagle, Abrams lead primaries by double digits; Cagle leads in GE  (Read 1442 times)
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
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« on: March 02, 2018, 08:24:19 AM »
« edited: March 02, 2018, 08:34:03 AM by RFKFan68 »

This poll was conducted pre-NRA/Delta.

Republican Primary
Cagle- 27%
Kemp- 13%
Tippins- 12%
Hill- 11%
Williams- 5%
Urbach- 1%
Undecided- 31%

Democratic Primary
Abrams- 29%
Evans- 17%
Undecided- 54%

GE Poll
Cagle- 45%
Abrams- 39%

Cagle-47%
Evans- 38%

Abrams leads non-Cagle Republicans

vs. Kemp 40-37
vs. Tippins 41-40
vs. Hill 43-37

Evans keeps margins tight in hypothetical match-ups with non-Cagle Republicans as well
Kemp leads her 42-39
Tippins leads her 41-38
Evans leads Hill 36-35

Cagle is the only candidate with any substantial name recognition. Besides him, Abrams, and Kemp more than half of those polled don't know/recognize who the other candidates are.

https://cmgpremajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2018/03/ga218pollpart2.pdf
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2018, 09:06:30 AM »

I think the bottom line is that Georgians are at least open to a Democratic Governor this year. Let's see if Georgia Democrats can run a good campaign or not.
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Pollster
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« Reply #2 on: March 02, 2018, 10:17:13 AM »

GOP runoff will be a major boon to the Democratic nominee, as a Democratic runoff is looking unlikely.

After Alabama, this race, and potentially McDaniel in MS, wouldn't surprise me if GOP pushes to eliminate runoffs.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 11:40:54 AM »

GOP runoff will be a major boon to the Democratic nominee, as a Democratic runoff is looking unlikely.

After Alabama, this race, and potentially McDaniel in MS, wouldn't surprise me if GOP pushes to eliminate runoffs.

Not sure how it affects Alabama except the Moore story might have broken sooner. He won the first round, too.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 12:00:46 PM »

I think the bottom line is that Georgians are at least open to a Democratic Governor this year. Let's see if Georgia Democrats can run a good campaign or not.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 09:04:47 PM »

GA has a run-off system and I am holding out hope Abrams makes the run-off.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2018, 03:53:33 PM »

Still a high % undecided in both primaries. From this poll, Abrams seems like the stronger GE candidate, narrowly, but the undecided %s are roughly the same for both.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2018, 08:13:36 PM »

Nothing too amazing or different from other cycles in these GE numbers; Democrats in Georgia basically start in polling with 40% and the GOP closer to 45%. I've yet to see anything that suggests GA will behave fundamentally different this cycle than in previous ones (i.e. electing Democrats; though polling is obviously sparse). If Stacey crosses 45% before Cagle starts hitting 50%, then we might have a race.

Those primary numbers, though...I can understand why people aren't bothering to poll the primary: useless. It also wouldn't surprise me one bit if those undecideds don't decrease by any meaningful amount between now and May. 
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