Is Blanco walking dead?

[Ben.]

Whether or not she deserves it, without New Orleans, Democrats don't have a fighting chance of winning state office.  Landrieu will probably lose if she runs for reelection.  So will Blanco. Meanwhile, the logistics of holding mayoral elections in New Orleans are unimaginable.

Its important to remember that Blanco and Landrieu did poorly in New Orleans back in both 02 and 03, in 02 Landrieu faced a Republican who was based in New Orleans and who's campaign was very sucessful in supressing the black vote and in 03 Blanco was opposed by Jindal who togehter with Nagin's support did well in apealing to black voters indeed Blacon largly got by thanks the the votes of the "good old boys" up-state while Landrieu would have lost had she not expanded her vote by signifcant margins amougst white voters in the December runoff contest in 2002.

Of the two Landrieu has by far the better shot, as she's come of Katrina better than anyone else, however your right to argue that New Orleans is going to take some time to get back on its feet and that will hurt Democrats statewide.   

[Ben.]

Landrieu should be toast as well.  For all her blaming of Bush, it is interesting that she was unable to mobilize a single bus to evacuate her constituents in the 48 hours priopr to the hurricane, though when she needed their votes, she was able to assemble a hundred or more in less than 14 hours.   I guess it's all about the motivation.

I can't fault Landrieu; US Senators don't have bus fleets.  I can't blame Blanco; LA did not have a fleet of buses sitting in NOLA.  I can't blame Bush or Brown; the federal government did not have a bus fleet sitting in NOLA.  Nagin did have a bus fleet sitting (and now rusting) in NOLA; the city had an evacuation plan to use them.  Nagig did not use them.

I'd agree, Indeed Landrieu has come out of this debacle better than any other - despite the fact that as a Senator there really was nothing practical she could do - however the perminant displacment of some Black voters from the NO area and the distruption of some very established GOTV systems in NO neigbourhoods, can't be good for her.

2008 would also be a tough year for Landrieu and a lot will depend on who's at the top of the ticket for the Democrats, Landrieu could run for Governor in 07, she'd be far better placed than Blanco to win IMHO and would then be able to apiont her replacment... but i don't think that will happen, but as things stand now her reaction to Katrina pretty much can only help her with most voters in Louisiana, it'll still be a competative race in 08, but barring a Dem meltdown nation wide, she should win.