Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[BudgieForce]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The week it got a bump was because of the Summit, the hit is likely because of the border crisis.

[BudgieForce]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The week it got a bump was because of the Summit, the hit is likely because of the border crisis.

Sure, but extreme movement is unusual for Gallup.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The week it got a bump was because of the Summit, the hit is likely because of the border crisis.

Sure, but extreme movement is unusual for Gallup.

Well, remember, Gallup doesn't do daily anymore, only weekly. The whole point of that was to filter out noise.

[junior chįmp]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Cave bump still incoming. Moderate GOPers are a fickle crew. They left him over health care, but came flocking back for their precious tax cuts.

[twenty42]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov (6/22-6/24)

Approve: 39% (-4)

Disapprove: 50% (-/-)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6vwn3cjnlu/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20180622.pdf
_____________________

Crosstabs:

Strongly disapprove +16 over strongly appprove

Whites disapprove 47-44%

Hispanics disapprove 52-30%

Independents disapprove 45-37%

Those in the Midwest disapprove 52-40% (!!!)

Those in the South disapprove 50-42%

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

Some of the red hacks in this forum are quite delusional. Outside of the cities and some suburbs, there's no such evidence of any Trump Slump.

[junior chįmp]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

Some of the red hacks in this forum are quite delusional. Outside of the cities and some suburbs, there's no such evidence of any Trump Slump.

The midwest and college educated whites?

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov (6/22-6/24)

Approve: 39% (-4)

Disapprove: 50% (-/-)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6vwn3cjnlu/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20180622.pdf
_____________________

Crosstabs:

Strongly disapprove +16 over strongly appprove

Whites disapprove 47-44%

Hispanics disapprove 52-30%

Independents disapprove 45-37%

Those in the Midwest disapprove 52-40% (!!!)

Those in the South disapprove 50-42%

Just a note that this is YouGov's daily 1000-adult snapshot, which tends to be very noisy.  IMO it's better to look at their multi-day surveys, which usually feature a sample size of 1500.

[BudgieForce]

YouGov (6/22-6/24)

Approve: 39% (-4)

Disapprove: 50% (-/-)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/6vwn3cjnlu/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20180622.pdf
_____________________

Crosstabs:

Strongly disapprove +16 over strongly appprove

Whites disapprove 47-44%

Hispanics disapprove 52-30%

Independents disapprove 45-37%

Those in the Midwest disapprove 52-40% (!!!)

Those in the South disapprove 50-42%

Just a note that this is YouGov's daily 1000-adult snapshot, which tends to be very noisy.  IMO it's better to look at their multi-day surveys, which usually feature a sample size of 1500.

As a side not, 538 has to do something about YouGov polls spamming their aggregate. Out of the last 10 polls, 5 have been from YouGov.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

Some of the red hacks in this forum are quite delusional. Outside of the cities and some suburbs, there's no such evidence of any Trump Slump.

The midwest and college educated whites?

The trolls are trying to move the goalposts.  Yes, Trump is up several points from his low point in December; multiple polls show this.  Yes, Trump seems to be losing the short-term bump he got from the North Korea summit; multiple shows this too.  Both of these things can be true; they're not related.  The latter movement is the one that was being discussed until the trolls brought up the former one.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The week it got a bump was because of the Summit, the hit is likely because of the border crisis.

Sure, but extreme movement is unusual for Gallup.

Extreme movements with Gallup usually indicate an event improving or degrading the President's approval and disapproval numbers. An event like the 'concert performance' of the "orchestra without a conductor" is an unusual event for any Presidency.

I'm tempted to say that this is a big event in establishing public attitudes toward the President, but even the underworld-style hit on Osama bin Laden had only a short-term effect on approval polls for Barack Obama. But that was a positive, which may work differently.

[twenty42]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

[junior chįmp]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

It's true tho. You see, I think part of the reason the Democratic Party has failed so badly is because they rely too much on incoming demographic changes without caring too much for actual policy. But at the same time, eventually they do become destiny. For example, from 1869 to 1964, the city of San Francisco had 10 Republican Mayors. After 1964, there hasn't been a single one simply due to demographics.

Take for example this study on the differences in the 1994 gubentorial elections of California & Texas. In California, Republican Pete Wilson ran on a heavily anti-illegal immigrant campaign while George W Bush ran on the opposite even saying:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now, in both the Texas and California gubentorial races, both Bush and Wilson won roughly the same amount of Latino voters:

California 1994:



Texas 1994:



But now lets look at the long-term implications of Bush and Wilson's choices:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The GOP under Trump is the blind leading the blind. All of this anti-Latino rhetoric is going to wreck the GOP in the long run. The Texas GOP still to this day benefits from Bush's work in accommodating Latino voters whereas Pete Wilson's racial demagoguery has effectively castrated his party from electoral viability. Of course...California still elected a couple of Republicans after Pete Wilson but eventually it was simply crushed in the long run.

[Inmate Trump]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

How is it a bad attitude?  Because it's logical and it means you'll be losing more and more in the future?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Y'all think Nate Silver is feeling vindicated?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1011300630986739719

[CookieDamage]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

How is it a bad attitude?  Because it's logical and it means you'll be losing more and more in the future?

twenty42: Um.... You lost the election!!!

[twenty42]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

How is it a bad attitude?  Because it's logical and it means you'll be losing more and more in the future?

Because relying on trends is a fool’s errand. You’d think you’d remember that your party got burnt doing just this in 2016. Remember that “Blue Wall” that you all used to cling to like a baby with their blankey?

Also, people who chant that “demographics are destiny” seem to subtly imply that we are headed for some sort of permanent tilt in the American political zeitgeist, which is outmoded thinking from the last decade. The idea of irreversible dominance by one party/ideology has come up time and time again throughout history, and it has been proven false every time.

There is no “destiny” in presidential politics. Every election is unique, and ultimately decided by individuals.

[pbrower2a]

That's why extrapolation of trends is one of the most reckless of statistical risks possible. Follow the trend of securities prices in 1927, 1928, and up to the start of September 1929, and you can obviously see that America was on the brink of a new and unprecedented era of prosperity based upon the wealth of speculators. We all know what happened.

Approval ratings have their ups and down, and reversion to the mean is the most likely trend to persist. But the mean for President Trump has typically been near forty, and not in the mid-forties. An event like the nuke deal (shaky and empty as it was) with North Korea creates a 'bump'. The scandal involving separation of illegal-aliens and their children is a  bad result. Will it long reflect the image that many Americans have of him, someone ready to sacrifice human decencies to force political change of his choosing?

It is to early for me to predict the trend. I will not try. I shall see what happens.

If President Trump is successful with this cruelty, and he is one of those 'tough on crime', let alone 'tough on the poor', types (so long as the crackdown lets his corrupt activities go unchecked)  attitude is almost pure deterrence. Imagine how it goes with welfare -- collect or try to collect welfare, and you lose your children. (Collecting welfare is of course not a crime, but instead something that we should encourage people in economic distress to do before doing something more drastic, like crime).

I do not predict trends. That is extrapolation. I generally assume inertia.  Using the (American) football game as an analogy (politics is a 'game' in the sense that American football game -- it is costly to produce, draws much attention, and above all is timed, with 'elections' as the definitive end of the game as is running out the clock)... if we use the football score as an analogy, Donald Trump is down something like 30-14 with about six minutes left in the second half. Teams have come back from that sort of deficit early, but if you are behind that much at that stage of the game against the Dallas Cowboys of the Tom Landry era, you are already seeing the nickel defense that slows the game down to a game of running with the ball or making short (and largely ineffective) passes. Sure, if you play the game Landry allows you, you might end up looking good losing and end up losing 36-27... but that is still losing. Now what happens if you face the nickel defense (five defensive backs in the backfield, which effectively stops the long forward pass), and insist on making long forward passes? You end up with interceptions, and Landry's team either makes a quick score to make the deficit bigger, or his offensive team grinds down the clock with running plays. Landry isn't so intent on running up the score as he is in using the clock as his 'twelfth man'. But if an interception should lead to a quick score, that makes his team all the more effective. Landry played the inertia game against a team on which his team got an early, big lead.

So far as I can tell, Donald Trump has no desire to 'look good losing'.  One page of the calendar, about the equivalent of 72 seconds of an hour-long Presidency to a minute of an American football game, turns every month.

     

[Gass3268]

Virginia (Quinnipiac):

38% Approve
56% Disapprove

Source

[twenty42]

That's why extrapolation of trends is one of the most reckless of statistical risks possible. Follow the trend of securities prices in 1927, 1928, and up to the start of September 1929, and you can obviously see that America was on the brink of a new and unprecedented era of prosperity based upon the wealth of speculators. We all know what happened.

Approval ratings have their ups and down, and reversion to the mean is the most likely trend to persist. But the mean for President Trump has typically been near forty, and not in the mid-forties. An event like the nuke deal (shaky and empty as it was) with North Korea creates a 'bump'. The scandal involving separation of illegal-aliens and their children is a  bad result. Will it long reflect the image that many Americans have of him, someone ready to sacrifice human decencies to force political change of his choosing?

It is to early for me to predict the trend. I will not try. I shall see what happens.

If President Trump is successful with this cruelty, and he is one of those 'tough on crime', let alone 'tough on the poor', types (so long as the crackdown lets his corrupt activities go unchecked)  attitude is almost pure deterrence. Imagine how it goes with welfare -- collect or try to collect welfare, and you lose your children. (Collecting welfare is of course not a crime, but instead something that we should encourage people in economic distress to do before doing something more drastic, like crime).

I do not predict trends. That is extrapolation. I generally assume inertia.  Using the (American) football game as an analogy (politics is a 'game' in the sense that American football game -- it is costly to produce, draws much attention, and above all is timed, with 'elections' as the definitive end of the game as is running out the clock)... if we use the football score as an analogy, Donald Trump is down something like 30-14 with about six minutes left in the second half. Teams have come back from that sort of deficit early, but if you are behind that much at that stage of the game against the Dallas Cowboys of the Tom Landry era, you are already seeing the nickel defense that slows the game down to a game of running with the ball or making short (and largely ineffective) passes. Sure, if you play the game Landry allows you, you might end up looking good losing and end up losing 36-27... but that is still losing. Now what happens if you face the nickel defense (five defensive backs in the backfield, which effectively stops the long forward pass), and insist on making long forward passes? You end up with interceptions, and Landry's team either makes a quick score to make the deficit bigger, or his offensive team grinds down the clock with running plays. Landry isn't so intent on running up the score as he is in using the clock as his 'twelfth man'. But if an interception should lead to a quick score, that makes his team all the more effective. Landry played the inertia game against a team on which his team got an early, big lead.

So far as I can tell, Donald Trump has no desire to 'look good losing'.  One page of the calendar, about the equivalent of 72 seconds of an hour-long Presidency to a minute of an American football game, turns every month.

     

One problem with your analogy...politics is nothing like football. Hillary was up by 7-8 points on October 27 and proceeded to lose the election. You can’t be certain of anything a couple years away when a couple days can make all the difference in the world. George HW Bush was leading by four touchdowns at the halftime of his presidency...how’d that work out for him?

[junior chįmp]

I wonder how much of the drop is just Gallup reverting back from an outlier.

The North Korea Trump scam probably gave him a temporary bump but Trump will never have a high approval rating. He's too disgusting for most of this country to fathom and he only caters to his rapidly dwindling base.

December 2017 36% approval
June 2018 44% approval

Where is the dwindle?

During the 1964 election....it is estimated that Goldwater won 80% of Nixon's 1960 Republican vote share. Same with Hoover in 1932. Trump is popular only among what's left of the GOP and that isn't enough for him to ever be generally popular or win re-election. Sooner or later demographics are destiny and Trump isnt doing anything to grow his decrepit base of pissed off white Boomers and dying Silents.

Obviously his approval rating has gone up as more Americans have gotten accustomed to having a buffoon in orange clown face as president but if the best you can do is 41% with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades then may lawd jesus have mercy upon your soul.

Bad attitude to have when it comes to elections. Just some advice.

How is it a bad attitude?  Because it's logical and it means you'll be losing more and more in the future?

Because relying on trends is a fool’s errand. You’d think you’d remember that your party got burnt doing just this in 2016. Remember that “Blue Wall” that you all used to cling to like a baby with their blankey?

Also, people who chant that “demographics are destiny” seem to subtly imply that we are headed for some sort of permanent tilt in the American political zeitgeist, which is outmoded thinking from the last decade. The idea of irreversible dominance by one party/ideology has come up time and time again throughout history, and it has been proven false every time.

There is no “destiny” in presidential politics. Every election is unique, and ultimately decided by individuals.

Yeah except we are....as evidenced by the fact that the GOP has only won the popular vote once in the last 7 elections. Sooner or later, it'll become pretty damn hard to elect a Republican to the executive unless you run phonies like Charlie Barker against an exceptionally terrible Democrat