Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[LimoLiberal]

Wow. Trump is plummeting!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Numbers on handling of Syria from the YouGov poll:

42% - approve
41% -disapprove
17% - no opinion


So If other polls show that, I wouldn't expect any sort of bump coming.

People are wary of another Iraq war.

[Kyng]

About the Syrian airstrikes, Morning Consult tells a different story. This has the strikes at 58% Support (29% Strongly), and 23% Oppose (10% Strongly). In spite of this, it still only has Trump's job approval at 41% Approve / 55% Disapprove.

Now, I will note that this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison to the 42%/41% YouGov figures quoted above, which refer to Trump's handling of Syria in general, rather than these specific air strikes. However, they did also have a question about the strikes, which had 47% approving (24% strongly), and 32% disapproving (16% strongly). That's still substantially better than Trump's overall job approval - and yet, all non-Trashmussen polls are, if anything, showing a downward trend. So, why no bounce?

I don't know the answer to that myself. One possibility is that, because there was already a strike on Syria last year (in response to a chemical attack), another similar response to a similar incident won't move the needle: it's already priced into people's overall views of Trump. Or it could be that the strike is, in fact, having an upward influence on his approvals, but it's just mitigating some other downward influence (e.g. from the various domestic controversies which Trump may have been trying to divert attention away from).

I guess we'll just need to wait and see.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Syria bump might have bipartisan support...mostly due to Dems inexplicably hating Assad more than ISIS...and the GOP seeing him as Saddam 2.0.

Yeah, why would anybody hate a guy who gasses women and children?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Terrible biased pro Trump poll has him collapsing. Not Good!

[Young Conservative]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Terrible biased pro Trump poll has him collapsing. Not Good!

My experience  is that people are getting tired or no results and continually seeing sexual misconduct.

[Progressive Pessimist]

dear white men,

pls stop

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/985467240777699329
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/985467066420551681

As a white man myself, I am at liberty to tell you that we really are the worst.

Can you confirm that all of your family Thanksgivings are like the ones in this tweet thread?

Hehehe kind of. On top of everything I do have that proverbial "conservative uncle" who creates a political argument every year. But he's not my uncle, he's my grandma's boyfriend and I hate him for reasons that don't even relate to his politics, though that certainly doesn't help.

[KingSweden]

Morning Consult/Politico, April 13-16, 1995 RV

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Terrible biased pro Trump poll has him collapsing. Not Good!

My experience  is that people are getting tired or no results and continually seeing sexual misconduct.

A fair critique of Trump, from the right

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow. Drumpf is plummeting!

When Limo says this, you know it's significant!

[pbrower2a]

Trump Indiana approval: 47%-48%


Source

Republicans have never won the Presidency in more than a century when winning Indiana by less than a 10% margin. Using 100-DIS as a ceiling for President Trump in Indiana, I can see him winning the state 52-48, which means that he will lose Ohio by a clear margin and Michigan by a large margin.

The change in category from treading water to underwater is within the margin of error, so I wouldn't make much of it. But if Indiana is close in 2020 we have a landslide.

TEXAS

from Quinnipiac, which has never polled Texas before.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2536

Ted Cruz is barely ahead of O'Rourke. Texas could reflect change in political culture unique to Texas, but (1) Trump support in Texas has been consistently shaky so far, and (2) see also Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, all of which have some similarities. Texas contains the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat, which is not a partisan statement.

Sure, Texas is a tricky state to poll -- but Trump can;t be that far underwater in the Lone Star State in a poll without being underwater.

https://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2018/04/v-behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html

Trump: 45/45 in Kentucky

Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 36
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[GlobeSoc]

https://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2018/04/v-behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html

Trump: 45/45 in Kentucky

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://wkussrc.blogspot.com/2018/04/v-behaviorurldefaultvmlo.html

Trump: 45/45 in Kentucky

Dominating.

[ProudModerate2]

TEXAS
from Quinnipiac, which has never polled Texas before.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's the independent voters' numbers that is most shocking.

[pbrower2a]

These maps revive the topic of whether President trump is doing better or worse than is necessary for winning a 50-50 split of the popular vote. To refresh on the guidelines for deciding what is a 50-50 vote nationwide based upon the recent voting in the various states and DC:  


Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

Based on 2012 and 2016 Cook PVI shows that the average Republican nominee will carry Alabama 59-41 and Florida 52-48; that the nominees will tie in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; and that the Democratic nominee will win Michigan by 51-49 and New York 62-38. Of course, even in a 50-50 election, cultural affinities and the emphases will matter greatly. So could demographic trends. We will talk about that for Arizona and Texas.  

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

After seeing Trump behind 47-48 in Indiana and 43- 52 in Texas, and at a 45-45 tie in Kentucky, states that Republicans have usually won easily since 2000, I get  to assess states as 100-disapproval as a ceiling for a Trump vote in 2020. Those two states have 57 electoral votes between them that the Republican nominee dare not lose. That is two more than California.  



100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 39
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  


Now, for the variance between  100-DIS from recent polling and Cook PVI.  

Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):

Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. President Trump projects to do 1% better than the typical Republican nominee in Vermont.

That's the end of the good news for his prospects of re-election, and that good news isn't very relevant. This projection suggests that overall the President will NOT approach 50% of the vote in 2020.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This projection suggests that overall the President will NOT approach 50% of the vote in 2020.

He didn't approach it 2016 either.

[pbrower2a]

This projection suggests that overall the President will NOT approach 50% of the vote in 2020.

He didn't approach it 2016 either.

True. Trump did about as well in the percentage of the popular vote in 2016 as Dukakis in 1988 and McCain in 2008... and this projection shows him faring badly enough to lose all states that he won by 10% or less -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. He also loses ME-02 and NE-02. That is a shift of 169 electoral votes.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump is no longer the least popular president at this point in his presidency, as per the 538 polling aggregate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Trump: 40.2% job approval
Carter: 40.0% job approval at this point in his presidency

[Hindsight was 2020]

Trump is no longer the least popular president at this point in his presidency, as per the 538 polling aggregate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Trump: 40.2% job approval
Carter: 40.0% job approval at this point in his presidency

Really good company to be in

[BudgieForce]

Trump is no longer the least popular president at this point in his presidency, as per the 538 polling aggregate:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Trump: 40.2% job approval
Carter: 40.0% job approval at this point in his presidency

At the same time, it looks like Carter's disapproval numbers were lower. So I'd think 40/44 is in better shape than 40/54.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump internal numbers show him gaining in approval -->

Or he just looked at Rasmussen again.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/987426984195174405

[KingSweden]

Trump internal numbers show him gaining in approval -->

Or he just looked at Rasmussen again.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/987426984195174405

Yeah I’d be skeptical, there have been reports his staffers feed him massaged numbers

[BudgieForce]

Hes at 49/50 on Rasmussen, so hes probably talking about Rasmussen. He has also tweeted about his Rasmussen numbers multiple times this week.

Edit: If Trump had good internal numbers, I'm positive they would be "leaked".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 17-19, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hes at 49/50 on Rasmussen, so hes probably talking about Rasmussen. He has also tweeted about his Rasmussen numbers multiple times this week.

Edit: If Trump had good internal numbers, I'm positive they would be "leaked".

In the 538 average, Trump is currently at 40.3/54.3 (-14.0).

One week ago: 40.8/53.2 (-12.4).

One month ago: 40.7/53.5 (-12..

One year ago: 42.0/52.0 (10.0).

[GeorgiaModerate]

For the last week or so it seems like Trump has been losing ground in net approval, while the generic Congressional ballot has been getting closer.  But before that, just the opposite was true for a while; Trump was improving and the GCB was widening.

I don't know if this has any significance, but it seems odd.