Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Landslide Lyndon]

Didn't anyone find it strange that while Trump's approval improved, congressional ballot worsened for Republicans?
Have the NBC pollsters offered an explanation for this logic-defying development?

[BudgieForce]

Didn't anyone find it strange that while Trump's approval improved, congressional ballot worsened for Republicans?
Have the NBC pollsters offered an explanation for this logic-defying development?

Like I said, it's probably an odd voter screen.

[pbrower2a]

Trumps numbers fluctuate between high 30s and low 40s. While there has been some recent improvements, I doubt they hold and this isn't just another fluctuation that un-does it self in the coming weeks. His numbers go up and down but never stray far from the baseline. That to me says people have made up their mind about him and outside of war or recession, his numbers will see no noticeable change beyond MoE for the remainder of the year.

The floor for the President in the popular vote in a bid for re-election is about 40% in a two-way race, as with Hoover in 1932. Hoover promised unprecedented prosperity and got the worst economic downturn that any living person can remember. Think of the year-and-a-half economic meltdown beginning in the autumn of 2007 (which was about as severe for a year and a half) , and double its length. But Hoover, disappointment as he was, still got 39.6% of the popular vote. His Party was fully behind him. Hoover got 52 electoral votes.

With Carter, we got stagflation and a mess in Iran. Carter may have been more unlucky than culpable, but that is my inner historian speaking. But even in a three-way race (John Anderson was one of the more successful third-party or independent nominees ever), Carter still got 41% of the popular vote and 49 electoral votes.

George H W Bush got only 37.45% of the popular vote in 1992 in part because he could not give a coherent explanation of what he would do in a second term. I am tempted to believe that Ross Perot (who got 19% of the popular vote that year) cut more into the vote for the elder Bush than into the Clinton vote...he could make some promises. The elder Bush was not a thoroughly-awful President as Donald Trump is.

...as a rule I do not predict polling results that follow news stories. Polling tells enough of a story, and fast enough. Many cannot understand how anyone could still believe in Donald Trump as a leader, but there are people likely to blame the news media, wayward intellectuals, or the old standbys "sin" and "the Devil". The fervent supporters of 2016 are still there. People stick with abusive spouses and exploitative cults, and President Trump has an abusive, exploitative cult. That will not change.

I see no events that would gut his support among those who can approve of him to this day. Some people still believe in him... go figure. His 'soft' support is gone. People who disagreed with him or otherwise found him too objectionable for his vote seem to think that he is exactly what thy feared. That was about 48% of the public in November 2016. About all that one could find with deeper polling are such assessments as "I wish I could emigrate for at least as long as he is President", "I wouldn't be surprised if we had a military coup", "I am no longer proud to be an American", "What a disgrace!", and... well, things that would draw the attention of the Secret Service.  All of those expressions would fit into "strongly disapprove", and there is no reason to distinguish them in polling. 

Day-to-day fluctuations do not change my assessment. I look for patterns, and I will be posting a revised map that shows how far the President is from getting re-elected. It has been a while since I showed that.

 

[pbrower2a]

Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Cook uses measures that fit an assumption of a 50-50 split of the vote and ignores cultural matches and favorite-son effects.  Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

Cook PVI assumes a 50-50 Presidential election, reasonable since 2000 because except for the 2008 Presidential election all such exception, those five all were basically even for almost the entire electoral season. One can use polling to predict whether the next Presidential election will be a 50-50 proposition, and if not, how far the likely reality diverges from that assumption.

Based on 2012 and 2016 Cook PVI shows that the average Republican nominee will carry Alabama 59-41 and Florida 52-48; that the nominees will tie in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania; and that the Democratic nominee will win Michigan by 51-49 and New York 62-38. Of course, even in a 50-50 election, cultural affinities and the emphases will matter greatly. So could demographic trends. We will talk about that for Arizona and Texas.  

For DC (not measured) and Congressional districts that vote independently of states, I have common sense for Dee Cee and the congressional votes for those districts.

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

............

Here  is the Gallup data for 2017. Figuring that this is an average from early February to late December, I will have to assume an average date of July 15 or so for the polling data. This is now rather old data, and in some cases obsolete. For example, I see Trump support cratering in the Mountain and Deep South (seer below). the Mountain South and Deep South are going back to a populist phase (the South has typically oscillated between the  two) or whether The Donald is beginning to appear as a bad match for either part of the South.  This data (or later polling) is not  intended to show anything other than how support appears at some time or at an average of times. As a general rule, new polling supplants even better old  polling.

So here  is the Gallup polling with a number  of 100-DIS reflecting what I consider the ceiling for Donald Trump. This is lenient to the extent that I assume that he can pick up most undecided voters but recognizes that undoing disapproval at any stage requires miracles. By definition, miracles are unpredictable.

 Gallup data from all polls in 2017 (average assumed  in mid-July):

*Approval lower than disapproval in this state

for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

I assume that President Trump will reach (1) just short of winning if he is behind, or (2) the ceiling that 100-DIS suggests if he is ahead. Basically I expect him to pick up the undecided vote to a large extent if he is behind because as badly as he is behind in some states, the undecided are clearly right-of-center.  That is not charity; it is caution. People who have given up on him already are unlikely to give him a second chance. The mirror image would apply if the Democratic incumbent were having trouble with outrageous behavior.  

.................  

This is polling from October or later, and it does not include the Gallup data.

 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

I use a 'favorability' rating for Illinois because such is all that is available and at this stage, favorability and approval are close when there is no active campaign.

Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.  

..........



100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

This is likely the last that you will see of my  analysis of polling based on deviation from Cook PVI. I think we can be assured that President Trump is doing worse, in general in  polling, than something consistent with a 50-50 split of the popular vote.

Now, for the variance between  100-DIS from recent polling and Cook PVI.  

Variation from PVI (polls from November 2017 and later):

Orange implies that President Trump projects to do better than Cook PVI based on 100-DIS. In Minnesota I have a 49-47 poll with which to work, and people in that thread tell me that the pollster who got those results is suspect. So the President is doing 2% better in California in accordance with 100-DIS than Cook PVI suggests. Not significant, obviously, because that is the difference between losing the Golden State 60-40 instead of 62-38.

This data is from mid-March.

Minnesota is the only significant anomaly (that is from the pattern of Trump having less support than is necessary for getting a 50% of the binary vote for President). California is going to go against him big even if it is less hostile to him than it was in 2016. Other states on the whole suggest that the President will fare far worse than average, and his biggest losses of support are in states that were either on or near the margin in 2016 or that he won big in 2016.  

[The Mikado]

I think that if you assume President Trump is at 40 +/- 3, you'll pretty much have been right for this whole presidency.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly, 3/19

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (nc)

This poll has stayed within a very narrow range for the past couple of months.

[King Lear]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 47%
Disapproval: 52%

[junior chįmp]

Latest Rassmusen Survey:
Approval: 47%
Disapproval: 52%

Terrible numbers for Republicans. Obama had the same approval rating from Rasmussen when he lost like 65 seats in 2010. I will have to readjust my predictions.

[alomas]

Well, after Comey firing, people were saying Trump is going to dive into the low 30s. He actually regained ground and is in the low 40s. Not too much adrift of Obama, who was regarded as good president in liberal media.

[Comrade Funk]

Well, after Comey firing, people were saying Trump is going to dive into the low 30s. He actually regained ground and is in the low 40s. Not too much adrift of Obama, who was regarded as good president in liberal media.

How many special elections do you need to analyse to understand the Republicans/Trump are in a an awful situation?

[BudgieForce]

Well, after Comey firing, people were saying Trump is going to dive into the low 30s. He actually regained ground and is in the low 40s. Not too much adrift of Obama, who was regarded as good president in liberal media.

Ignoring the fact that Trump is being buoyed by a strong economy while Obama was being dragged down by the remnants of the great recession(and yet still had better numbers), your comparison doesn't really work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 15-19, 1548 adults

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 55 (-1)

[Frodo]

Well, after Comey firing, people were saying Trump is going to dive into the low 30s. He actually regained ground and is in the low 40s. Not too much adrift of Obama, who was regarded as good president in liberal media.

By all means, stay in denial.  It suits us just fine. 

[pbrower2a]

Well, after Comey firing, people were saying Trump is going to dive into the low 30s. He actually regained ground and is in the low 40s. Not too much adrift of Obama, who was regarded as good president in liberal media.

It's a question at this time of how badly the president will lose in 2020. Should his approval rating get into the low 30s he will probably end up with about 40% of the popular vote. In the high 30s -- about 45%.

I see President Trump doing far worse than Obama at analogous times from inauguration to now, and even if I am in no position in which to extrapolate what follows, I notice that Barack Obama barely touched the low 40s in approval. With a spirited and effective campaign, President Obama was able to parlay 45% or so approval into about 51% of the popular vote in 2016.

Below the low 20s? One rarely sees elected officials running for re-election with such.

I look at the qualitative assessments, and of course well-concealed racial attitudes may have kept President Obama from having higher approval ratings than he otherwise had. But the racist memes and religious slanders of some Tea Party members are nothing in contrast to the self-inflicted wounds that the current President endures. To be sure, President Obama didn't make the strange personnel changes that Trump did...  he seemed to prefer to not mess with the intelligence services and federal law enforcement. For all his alleged ultra-liberal tendencies, Obama was very conservative in his style of administering the government.

If you think that President Trump can get re-elected, then your assessment depends upon miracles or successful cheats. I see no reason to predict the success of either.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, March 15-19, 1994 RV

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

[LimoLiberal]

Quinnipiac Trump Approval

Approve - 40
Disapprove - 53

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Quinnipiac Trump Approval

Approve - 40
Disapprove - 53

Terrible news for the Democrats!  Thank you, LL. 

[BudgieForce]

Quinnipiac Trump Approval

Approve - 40
Disapprove - 53

Terrible news for the Democrats!  Thank you, LL.  

Ehh. It'll go back down in their next poll.

Edit: Trump sways but is never far from his average.

[Doimper]

Quinnipiac Trump Approval

Approve - 40
Disapprove - 53

Terrible news for the Democrats!  Thank you, LL. 

-13 approval is terrible for Democrats? Jesus, if Trump's bar was set any lower we'd be tripping over it.

[pbrower2a]

Five states, three of them altogether new to this map (with 37 electoral votes), from PPP (if for a liberal advocacy group; PPP errs on the side of Republicans in the name of caution:

Arizona, 45-50

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-AZ-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf

Nevada, 45-51

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-NV-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf

Pennsylvania, 42-53

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-PA-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf

Tennessee, 54-42

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-TN-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21-1.pdf

Wisconsin, 41-51

http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/PPP-Poll-WI-ACA-Memo-and-Results-March-21.pdf

These polls were automated phone polls.

Senate results:

Dem margins in Senate battlegrounds, per @ppppolls
#PAsen Casey (D) 54% (+18) Barletta (R)  36%
#WIsen Baldwin (D) 51 (+12) Vukmir (R) 39
#TNsen Bredesen (D) 46 (+5) Blackburn (R) 41
#NVsen Rosen (D) 44 (+5) Heller (R) 39
#AZsen Sinema (D) 46 (+5) McSally (R) 41%



Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, March 18-20, 1500 adults

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

YouGov, March 18-20, 1500 adults

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 17 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Those strong numbers look brutal for him. Good times.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 15-21, 55372 adults (48442 RV)

Among all adults:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

[Virginiá]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/22/trump-2018-midterms-republicans-480417

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Now we know how Trump copes with all these polls showing him underwater. Just add 9

[BudgieForce]

What!? Add 9 points? Really?