Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Tekken_Guy]

Chris Smith and Tom Emmer will likely be joining Andy Harris, Mark Amodei, Greg Walden, and Steve Pearce's replacement in an exclusive club very soon.

[KingSweden]

Chris Smith and Tom Emmer will likely be joining Andy Harris, Mark Amodei, Greg Walden, and Steve Pearce's replacement in an exclusive club very soon.

There’s a chance Dems flip Pearce’s seat, IMO

[Brittain33]

Chris Smith and Tom Emmer will likely be joining Andy Harris, Mark Amodei, Greg Walden, and Steve Pearce's replacement in an exclusive club very soon.

I wonder if people still think Collin Peterson's going to lose next year because muh Trump surge.

[henster]

We have a new daily online pollster from DailyKos/Civiqs including Trump JA which they have at 42/54 and GCB.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/12/1748087/-Announcing-Civiqs-the-coolest-thing-I-ve-helped-build-since-Daily-Kos

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&net=false&uncertainty=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet, apologies if they have:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1469 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

[LimoLiberal]

I don't think any of these have been posted yet, apologies if they have:

YouGov, Mar 10-13, 1500 adults

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Morning Consult, Mar 8-12, 1997 RV

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Ipsos/Reuters, Mar 8-12, 1469 adults

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Very stable week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, March 8-14, 18255 adults (16065 RV)


Among all adults:

Approve 44 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongl disapprove 42 (-2)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

[Gass3268]

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source

[KingSweden]

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source

That’s not a great number

[BudgieForce]

Fair =/= Poor.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Fair =/= Poor.

I know but most pollsters lump them together.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fair =/= Poor.

I know but most pollsters lump them together.

I think of them like this:

Excellent = Strongly Approve
Good = Somewhat Approve
Fair = Somewhat Disapprove
Poor = Strongly Disapprove

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Fair =/= Poor.

I know but most pollsters lump them together.

I think of them like this:

Excellent = Strongly Approve
Good = Somewhat Approve
Fair = Somewhat Disapprove
Poor = Strongly Disapprove

I don't think you can consider "Fair" as somewhat disapprove. "Fair" is a neutral sounding word.

I highly doubt every politician is that unpopular in Montana.

[BudgieForce]

Fair to me is not a strong enough descriptor to be classified as "somewhat disapprove". I would go so far as to say "fair" could be combined with excellent and good for an overall approval rating.  

[Progressive Pessimist]

Drumpf is not very popular in New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

32% Approve
63% Disapprove

Source

Thanks for the 3-4 seats, Drumpf.

And thanks for the dummymander, Christie.

It's hilarious how badly the design of these districts backfired over the course of a few years.

Based Murphy is gonna gerrymander that sucka soon

I look forward to Chris Smith being the only GOP member of the Congressional delegation at some point in the future.
[/quote]

I would rather a map that draws two GOP vote sinks (one in NW Jersey and another Ocean County/southern Monmouth seat) to prevent a Democratic dummymander. Such a map would also be extremely clean.
[/quote]

I'd be fine with that too actually. I was mostly being facetious before.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, March 7-14, 1466 adults (change from Jan)

Approve 39 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

[MT Treasurer]

I didn’t see this flawless, beautiful poll posted here:



Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

[Dr. Arch]

I didn’t see this flawless, beautiful poll posted here:



Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

Ho-ly crap

[pbrower2a]

Big Sky Poll - Montana:

Excellent + Good: 43% (Good 20%)
Fair + Poor: 53% (Poor 41%)

Source

That’s not a great number

Fair to me is not a strong enough descriptor to be classified as "somewhat disapprove". I would go so far as to say "fair" could be combined with excellent and good for an overall approval rating.  

Indeed that is a horrible number.

Technically this is not approve-disapprove."Excellent" and "Good" are unambiguous statements of approval,   and  "poor" is unambiguous disapproval.  The word "fair" can be ambiguous in meaning. "Fair" performance on the violin by a seven-year-old kid might be praiseworthy, but you would not praise a "fair" performance of violin playing by an adult if you had recordings of Kreisler, Heifetz, Oistrakh, Grumiaux, Milstein, Stern, or Perlman against which to compare the performance due to suspect intonation, technique, or taste. "Fair play", "fair dealing", and "fair weather" are positive contexts.

"Fair" in most contexts is mediocrity, and if one wants food cheap and convenient, then typical fast food is mediocrity. It will quiet your hunger pangs.  Mediocrity in politics is far better than hideousness, let alone horror. If one treats "excellent" and "good" as general approval, then one gets 43% approval. "Poor" unambiguously suggests disapproval at 41%. I am tempted to split the "fair" category (12%) of responses 50-50 to give a 49-47 positive approval, which suggests a near-tie as I have for such states as Missouri and Nebraska. Neither is an ideal analogue for Montana, which has not gone for a Democratic nominee for President since 1992, and then did so in a three-way split of the popular vote. Sure, it was sort-of-close for Obama in 2008, but that matters little. I cannot think of any state that is a good analogue to Montana, including any of its neighbors. Montana is not at all  a farm state (I am guessing that about half the agricultural vote in North and South Dakota and a quarter of the agricultural vote in Idaho is in farming), and it does not depend upon as much as Wyoming upon energy extraction.  

I see few polls for Montana, but I expect to see more because of the Senate seat up for re-election in a state usually tough for Democrats to contest even as incumbents. My treatment of Donald Trump's esteem in Montana may be a bit charitable toward him; I tend to err on the side  of the prospect of President Trump getting re-elected.  This poll suggests that Montana will not be a sure win for Donald Trump in 2020.
 

I didn’t see this flawless, beautiful poll posted here:



Women: 29/70 (-41)
18-35 years: 27/73 (-46)
65+ years: 36/62 (-26)

Shaheen has a 57/34 approval in the same poll (69/28 among females, 66/26 among 18 to 34-year-olds and 63/35 among voters 65 or older), and Democrats lead the Generic Congressional Ballot in NH by 12 points.

Neither did I. I thought that the 26/67 spread that I have had too good to be true for someone who despises the President as I do 36-61 is more like it. Could it be that New Hampshire voters who as a whole were close to giving their state's four electoral votes to President Trump now are less supportive of him by about 10%? Republican nominees for President can win without New Hampshire, but I can;t imagine any Republican losing new Hampshire by 10% or more and getting elected.

Donald Trump may be reminding Granite State voters of the sort of New Yorker that they least like, the ugly stereotype of a blustering, domineering, liar with a bloated ego.  




Approval:

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but negative pale blue
ties white
45% or higher and positive pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November. Polls from Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia are exit polls from 2017 elections.  The Montana poll is an excellent-good-fair-poor poll which is semantically different from approve-disapprove, and I am splitting the 12% "fair" evenly  (6-6), and after an approval poll comes in I would never replace it with another EGFP poll.  

[LimoLiberal]

Pew 3/7-14 (last poll was in early January)

Approve - 39 (+2)
Disapprove - 54 (-2)

Rasmussen 3/16

Approve - 47 (-1)
Disapprove - 52 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, March 11-15, 1565 adults

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

[LimoLiberal]

NBC, 3/10-14

Approve - 43 (+4)
Disapprove - 53 (-4)

I'd note that NBC/WSJ, Pew, and Marist are all live caller polls that have shown Trump's approval rising beyond the margin of error. But we need more polling to corroborate any trend that may or may not exist.

[BudgieForce]

Trumps numbers fluctuate between high 30s and low 40s. While there has been some recent improvements, I doubt they hold and this isn't just another flucuation that un-does it self in the coming weeks. His numbers go up and down but never stray far from the baseline. That to me says people have made up their mind about him and outside of war or recession, his numbers will see no noticeable change beyond MoE for the remainder of the year.

[BudgieForce]

I also think, more than anything, poll voter screens are among the largest contributors to these fluctuations.

[KingSweden]

For me, I don’t think there’s much electoral difference anymore between whether he’s at 35% or 40%. Democrats have shown that they can win high-turnout races in Trump+20 or more areas even when he’s at 40% nationally. The difference is negligible. Now, if his approval starts dipping back into the low 30’s or high 20’s, we can probably start asking how big Democrats’ majorities in both houses will be rather than “if” they will win both.

I agree. 38 be 41 is essentially the same rating, IMO