CA-49: ??? vs. ???
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  CA-49: ??? vs. ???
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Poll
Question: Who advances?
#1
Doug Applegate (D)
 
#2
Diane Harkey (R)
 
#3
Paul Kerr (D)
 
#4
Brian Maryott (R)
 
#5
Sara Jacobs (D)
 
#6
Mike Levin (D)
 
#7
Christina Prejean (D)
 
#8
Josh Schoonover (R)
 
#9
Kristin Gaspar (R)
 
#10
Mike Schmitt (R)
 
#11
David Medway (R)
 
#12
Joshua Hancock (L)
 
#13
Jordan Mills (Peace & Freedom)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: CA-49: ??? vs. ???  (Read 10278 times)
King Lear
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« Reply #75 on: April 13, 2018, 07:47:51 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.
King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.
I still think Applegate will make it into the Top-two and flip the seat in the general election (due to his Military experience, Left-wing economic policies, Non-interventionism, and moderate social stances), but if for some reason Sara Jacobs slips by him theirs no way the district will vote for a inexperienced, Wealthy, female, Millennial, brat, over a Hispanic, State Assemblyman, with Military experience.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #76 on: April 13, 2018, 08:00:23 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.
King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.
Well if she wants to get into the top 2 she better start spending that money now. There are less than two months until election day.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #77 on: April 13, 2018, 08:09:41 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.
King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.
I still think Applegate will make it into the Top-two and flip the seat in the general election (due to his Military experience, Left-wing economic policies, Non-interventionism, and moderate social stances), but if for some reason Sara Jacobs slips by him theirs no way the district will vote for a inexperienced, Wealthy, female, Millennial, brat, over a Hispanic, State Assemblyman, with Military experience.
*Cough* *Cough* R midterm in an OPEN seat that went for Clinton. Obviously Applegate would win, but then again most Democrats can win here
Rocky Chavez is a great recruit for Republicans in this district though. It will be a close race.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #78 on: April 13, 2018, 08:33:36 PM »

In such a contested primary, I think it's time for some Democrats (preferrably Kerr and Jacobs) to drop out to avoid a Chavez vs Harkey runoff.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #79 on: April 13, 2018, 08:45:34 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #80 on: April 14, 2018, 05:54:31 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose most non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #81 on: April 14, 2018, 05:56:53 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose these sorts of non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.

Applegate's been imploding and Levin's support has stayed at the same level though. It's been Kerr and Jacobs that have benefited from Applegate's falling numbers. Which I guess makes sense since the 3 of them are from San Diego county.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #82 on: April 14, 2018, 06:06:08 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose these sorts of non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.

Applegate's been imploding and Levin's support has stayed at the same level though. It's been Kerr and Jacobs that have benefited from Applegate's falling numbers. Which I guess makes sense since the 3 of them are from San Diego county.

Dude, do I have to spell it out for you? I will never support a primary candidate who is viable solely because of wealth. Capiche?
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #83 on: April 14, 2018, 06:08:30 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose these sorts of non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.

Applegate's been imploding and Levin's support has stayed at the same level though. It's been Kerr and Jacobs that have benefited from Applegate's falling numbers. Which I guess makes sense since the 3 of them are from San Diego county.

Dude, do I have to spell it out for you? I will never support a primary candidate who is viable solely because of wealth. Capiche?

I was literally just refuting your point of "Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes. "

I really don't care who you support, but evidence has shown that Levin is not indeed benefiting from Applegate's collapse.
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GlobeSoc
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« Reply #84 on: April 14, 2018, 06:10:12 PM »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose these sorts of non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.

Applegate's been imploding and Levin's support has stayed at the same level though. It's been Kerr and Jacobs that have benefited from Applegate's falling numbers. Which I guess makes sense since the 3 of them are from San Diego county.

Dude, do I have to spell it out for you? I will never support a primary candidate who is viable solely because of wealth. Capiche?

I was literally just refuting your point of "Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes. "

I really don't care who you support, but evidence has shown that Levin is not indeed benefiting from Applegate's collapse.

Refer to bolded word.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #85 on: April 14, 2018, 06:11:18 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.
King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.
I still think Applegate will make it into the Top-two and flip the seat in the general election (due to his Military experience, Left-wing economic policies, Non-interventionism, and moderate social stances), but if for some reason Sara Jacobs slips by him theirs no way the district will vote for a inexperienced, Wealthy, female, Millennial, brat, over a Hispanic, State Assemblyman, with Military experience.
*Cough* *Cough* R midterm in an OPEN seat that went for Clinton. Obviously Applegate would win, but then again most Democrats can win here
Rocky Chavez is a great recruit for Republicans in this district though. It will be a close race.

He is a great recruit, but given that this district went to Clinton by 8, he probably loses by about the same amount (Clinton voters are more energized than Trump voters and third party/non voters are massively leaning dem this cycle)
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Jeppe
Bosse
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« Reply #86 on: April 14, 2018, 06:13:24 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2018, 06:18:44 PM by Gauche »

Applegate’s campaign has been struggling. He’s having a hard time raising money, he’s receiving no support from the establishment, and he’s been pretty much MIA on the campaign stump. He tried to join another race but missed the residency requirement. He’s gonna lose his lead among Dems sooner or later.

Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes.

Also I oppose these sorts of non-incumbent self-funders, for obvious reasons if you compare my avatar and my signature against each other.

Applegate's been imploding and Levin's support has stayed at the same level though. It's been Kerr and Jacobs that have benefited from Applegate's falling numbers. Which I guess makes sense since the 3 of them are from San Diego county.

Dude, do I have to spell it out for you? I will never support a primary candidate who is viable solely because of wealth. Capiche?

I was literally just refuting your point of "Mike Levin will inherit Applegate's support if he implodes. "

I really don't care who you support, but evidence has shown that Levin is not indeed benefiting from Applegate's collapse.

Refer to bolded word.

He went from 18% in February to 12% in April. That's a fairly big drop, outside of the MoE.

Anyway, Rocky Chavez had a pretty bad first fundraising quarter. Only $200,000. Haven't seen any of the other candidate's reports yet, besides Mike Levin's $315,000 haul.

There was also a California Alliance for Retired Americans forum today for CA-49. Applegate and Levin no-shows. Can't see the Republican ladies either.


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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #87 on: April 14, 2018, 07:18:01 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.

Hahahahaha...no.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #88 on: April 16, 2018, 07:34:19 AM »

Q1 Fundraising, brackets is cash-on-hand. I removed any self-funding from the final total.

Mike Levin (D) - $315,000 ($515,000)
Sara Jacobs (D) - $300,000 ($1,094,000)
Diane Harkey (R) - $283,000 ($179,000)
Kristin Gaspar (R) - $261,000 ($185,000)
Doug Applegate (D) - $129,000 ($236,000)
Rocky Chavez (R) - $103,000 ($185,000)
Paul Kerr (D) - $34,000 ($345,000)

Paul Kerr pumped in almost $1 million into his campaign and spent most of it this quarter. Rocky Chavez put $100,000 of his own into his campaign account, but otherwise I didn’t see any other self-funding this quarter.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #89 on: April 16, 2018, 08:34:28 AM »

Q1 Fundraising, brackets is cash-on-hand. I removed any self-funding from the final total.

Mike Levin (D) - $315,000 ($515,000)
Sara Jacobs (D) - $300,000 ($1,094,000)
Diane Harkey (R) - $283,000 ($179,000)
Kristin Gaspar (R) - $261,000 ($185,000)
Doug Applegate (D) - $129,000 ($236,000)
Rocky Chavez (R) - $103,000 ($185,000)
Paul Kerr (D) - $34,000 ($345,000)

Paul Kerr pumped in almost $1 million into his campaign and spent most of it this quarter. Rocky Chavez put $100,000 of his own into his campaign account, but otherwise I didn’t see any other self-funding this quarter.

Most of Jacobs’ CoH is from contributions from her dad, just sayin’ Tongue
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Jeppe
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« Reply #90 on: April 16, 2018, 08:47:03 AM »

Q1 Fundraising, brackets is cash-on-hand. I removed any self-funding from the final total.

Mike Levin (D) - $315,000 ($515,000)
Sara Jacobs (D) - $300,000 ($1,094,000)
Diane Harkey (R) - $283,000 ($179,000)
Kristin Gaspar (R) - $261,000 ($185,000)
Doug Applegate (D) - $129,000 ($236,000)
Rocky Chavez (R) - $103,000 ($185,000)
Paul Kerr (D) - $34,000 ($345,000)

Paul Kerr pumped in almost $1 million into his campaign and spent most of it this quarter. Rocky Chavez put $100,000 of his own into his campaign account, but otherwise I didn’t see any other self-funding this quarter.

Most of Jacobs’ CoH is from contributions from her dad, just sayin’ Tongue

*Grandfather

Her grandfather is the billionaire tech tycoon, not her dad. Get the dynasty right.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #91 on: April 16, 2018, 10:41:01 AM »

Those are pitiful numbers for Applegate and Chavez.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #92 on: April 16, 2018, 03:21:55 PM »

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.
King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.
I still think Applegate will make it into the Top-two and flip the seat in the general election (due to his Military experience, Left-wing economic policies, Non-interventionism, and moderate social stances), but if for some reason Sara Jacobs slips by him theirs no way the district will vote for a inexperienced, Wealthy, female, Millennial, brat, over a Hispanic, State Assemblyman, with Military experience.
*Cough* *Cough* R midterm in an OPEN seat that went for Clinton. Obviously Applegate would win, but then again most Democrats can win here
Rocky Chavez is a great recruit for Republicans in this district though. It will be a close race.

Great recruit on paper, very unsure of his electoral prospects. He's only faced Republican candidates in all his Assembly races and dropped out of the 2016 US Senate race minutes into a debate
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Nyvin
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« Reply #93 on: April 17, 2018, 09:11:48 PM »

Q1 Fundraising, brackets is cash-on-hand. I removed any self-funding from the final total.

Mike Levin (D) - $315,000 ($515,000)
Sara Jacobs (D) - $300,000 ($1,094,000)
Diane Harkey (R) - $283,000 ($179,000)
Kristin Gaspar (R) - $261,000 ($185,000)
Doug Applegate (D) - $129,000 ($236,000)
Rocky Chavez (R) - $103,000 ($185,000)
Paul Kerr (D) - $34,000 ($345,000)

Paul Kerr pumped in almost $1 million into his campaign and spent most of it this quarter. Rocky Chavez put $100,000 of his own into his campaign account, but otherwise I didn’t see any other self-funding this quarter.

The more I read about Sara Jacobs the more I utterly despise her.   I think she's the one Democrat in the entire country that I would honestly consider voting for the GOP candidate just to avoid seeing her win.

Thank god I don't live in CA-49...
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #94 on: April 17, 2018, 09:50:03 PM »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #95 on: April 17, 2018, 10:26:25 PM »
« Edited: April 17, 2018, 10:32:15 PM by ERM64man »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
Cisneros is the strongest candidate. He would dominate in Hacienda Heights, the center of district's Democratic Party.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #96 on: April 17, 2018, 10:34:59 PM »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
Cisneros is the strongest candidate. He would dominate in Hacienda Heights, the center of district's Democratic Party.
Did you see his last Q fundraising?
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #97 on: April 17, 2018, 10:50:39 PM »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
Cisneros is the strongest candidate. He would dominate in Hacienda Heights, the center of district's Democratic Party.
Did you see his last Q fundraising?

Neither of the two viable Democratic candidates are bothering to fundraise for blatantly obvious reasons given their background.
Yes granted Gil or Thornburn probably don't bother as they both can self fundrase all the way but it still looks bad to be that far behind Andy Kim
Kim
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #98 on: April 17, 2018, 10:58:56 PM »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
He's only running because he's rich and bored.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #99 on: April 17, 2018, 11:46:50 PM »

I know he's a former republican but how is Gil Cisneros a ghoul?
He's only running because he's rich and bored.

No, that would be Thorburn.  Cisneros is easily the best candidate running in that seat and should win the run-off if/when he finishes in the top two.
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