CA-49: ??? vs. ???

[I’m not Stu]

Since Applegate isn't gonna drop out, I still think he makes it against...Chavez?

Probably. If Kerr and Jacobs drop out, it might be Applegate vs. Levin.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So going by Twitter there was a #flipthe49th forum the other day and only Levin showed up for it. That is some bad pr for Applegate and Jacobs to pull in a primary

[Atlas Force]

LOL why all the wasted votes for Applegate people?

[Jeppe]

Sara Jacobs SURGE. Applegate, please drop out.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sara Jacobs SURGE. Applegate, please drop out.

Only with descriptions.

[Jeppe]

Sara Jacobs SURGE. Applegate, please drop out.

Only with descriptions.

The last poll had descriptions too, so it's obvious that Applegate is losing ground badly.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sara Jacobs SURGE. Applegate, please drop out.

Only with descriptions.

The last poll had descriptions too, so it's obvious that Applegate is losing ground badly.

The more relevant number is the pre-description one imo.

[Jeppe]

Sara Jacobs SURGE. Applegate, please drop out.

Only with descriptions.

The last poll had descriptions too, so it's obvious that Applegate is losing ground badly.

The more relevant number is the pre-description one imo.

There is no pre-description poll this natch.

[I’m not Stu]

I don't hear anyone calling for no-name candidate Paul Kerr to drop out, even though he should. Jacobs is ahead of Applegate in one poll and behind him in another.

[JohnCA246]

Can someone explain that poll, I don't understand it.

[socaldem]

Jacobs is Jon Ossof in a skirt. She should drop out. So should Kerr.

[King Lear]

Jacobs is Jon Ossof in a skirt. She should drop out. So should Kerr.

Totally agree.

[I’m not Stu]

4 Democrats already filed and cannot drop out. Levin is one of them, but who are the other 3?

[Landslide Lyndon]

4 Democrats already filed and cannot drop out. Levin is one of them, but who are the other 3?

Applegate, Jacobs and Kerr, obviously.

[I’m not Stu]

Republicans David Arnold and Christina Borgese might get in. Applegate cannot drop out.

[Littlefinger]

https://twitter.com/ApplegateCA49/status/974722250472501248?s=19

Applegate (D) 23%
Chavez (R) 15%
Levin (D) 11%
Harkey (R) 10%
Kerr (D) 7%
Jacobs (D) 7%
Gaspar (R) 4%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

That looks to be the same Fight Back California poll on this page, but before ballot descriptions

[King Lear]

https://twitter.com/ApplegateCA49/status/974722250472501248?s=19

Applegate (D) 23%
Chavez (R) 15%
Levin (D) 11%
Harkey (R) 10%
Kerr (D) 7%
Jacobs (D) 7%
Gaspar (R) 4%

Great poll, I really hope Applegate makes the runoff, because he's the most electable Democrat.

[Canis]

Applegate is gonna pull this off for sure!

[I’m not Stu]

Who would win a Levin vs. Applegate runoff?

[Coastal Elitist]

New poll from SurveyUSA has Chavez leading Applegate.
http://www.latimes.com/sd-me-congress-polls-20180412-story.html

Rocky Chavez (R) 16%
Doug Applegate (D) 12%
Mike Levin (D) 9%
Diane Harkey (R) 8%
Paul Kerr (D) 8%
Sara Jacobs (D) 7%
Kristin Gaspar (R) 5%
Brian Maryott (R) 5%
Mike Schmitt (R) 3%
Undecided 21%

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Movement since the last SurveyUSA poll in February

Chavez (R)       -1
Applegate (D)   -6
Levin (D)         +1
Harkey (R)       -2
Kerr (D)          +7
Jacobs (D)       +2
Gaspar (R)       -5
Maryott (R)      +3
Someone Else  +5
Undecided        -6

Combined Republicans:  40%  (+2)
Combined Democrats:    36%   (+3)
Other/Undecided:          23%   (-6)

Looks like Applegate is bleeding some Democrat support. Haven't read much on Paul Kerr, but he seems like a decent candidate

[King Lear]

Movement since the last SurveyUSA poll in February

Chavez (R)       -1
Applegate (D)   -6
Levin (D)         +1
Harkey (R)       -2
Kerr (D)          +7
Jacobs (D)       +2
Gaspar (R)       -5
Maryott (R)      +3
Someone Else  +5
Undecided        -6

Combined Republicans:  40%  (+2)
Combined Democrats:    36%   (+3)
Other/Undecided:          23%   (-6)

Looks like Applegate is bleeding some Democrat support. Haven't read much on Paul Kerr, but he seems like a decent candidate

Applegate better make the runoff or Democrats are screwed in this district. Because, Applegate is the only Democratic candidate with the background (he's a 30 year Marine Corps veteran) and personality (he's really candid, tough, and in-your-face, unlike the other Democrats which come across as Liberal, elitist, lightweights) to take down Rocky Chavez (a Hispanic State Assemblymen who also happens to be a Marine Corps veteran), unlike the other candidates (especially the wealthy, brat, Sara Jacobs) who will get crushed by Rocky Chavez in the General election due to their, weak personalities, wrong background, and obsession with social issues, especially in the case of Sara Jacobs who is using her gender as her primary campaign issue (we all saw how that worked nationwide in 2016).

[Jeppe]

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.

[Jeppe]

The Orange County Young Democrats endorsed Sara Jacobs earlier this week. After a straw poll of 300 members with a ranked ballot. She also got endorsements from numerous Democrat clubs, including the San Diego AAPI, African-American, and Chicano clubs.

Emily’s List’s Super PAC is also spending $500,000 on television ad buys and targeted voter mail advertisements supporting Sara Jacobs too. With Applegate tumbling and Levin struggling to Gain traction, I think she can sneak into the top 2.

King Lear: "OMG, Sara Jacobs is DOA, this race becomes Safe R and we should have nominated Doug Applegate!"

Honestly, if she gets into the general election, Chavez will be BURIED by money. Jacobs hasn’t been self-funding that much in the primary, but if she’s the Democratic nominee, I imagine the billionaire heiress will spend countless millions to win a Congressional seat at the age of 28. Hell, I would if I were in the same position.