European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[mileslunn]

Will Macron's En Marche be running under the ALDE banner?  I am thinking if they do, that should help the ALDE a fair bit even with Macron's lousy approval rating.  Also the Citizen's in Spain could help them if they run under that.  I suspect NCR will do a lot worse as UK will have left the EU thus loss of one of their largest parties.  Overall I suspect the far right nationalists will gain, on the left Greens will gain while S&D will remain in second but continue to fall.  EPP probably comes in first again.

[mileslunn]

@mileslunn Macron made a deal with Verhofstadt but it will have little effect on the overall ambition of the Alde leader to have a Europe-wide campaign. The "Macron" effect will only be felt in Belgium, and negatively if things continue. Most electorates in Europe care little for the European party configurations and their neighbours politics, even if we are starting to share the same political concerns.

Agreed with that, but France is a fairly major country so it will increase the ALDE numbers in France thus overall EU parliament representation even if no impact beyond French borders.  Macron may not be popular, but his party didn't exist at all last time around so even with low popularity should still be a lot higher than in 2014 for ALDE from France.

[mileslunn]

Since we don't know for sure if the UK will have left by then, does the EU have plans for both options.  Also if Brexit is delayed but they still do leave, do MEPs from UK just vacate on that day will keeping the remaining seats the same until the next election?