So, Bulgaria. 17 seats in Brussels/Strasbourg are contested by (sigh) 318 candidates presented by (double sigh) 13 parties, 8 coalitions and 6 independents (
2 of the latter running their campaigns from jail).
Going in the order of the last EU election, this is where we are:
GERB -
EPP - 2014: 6 seats
Rocked by corruption scandals, the ruling party is running a very safe campaign, appealing to their core voters with a "Stop the Socialists" message. I can write a lot about the emerging rupture within the party, but it is mostly irrelevant in the EU Election context and also uninteresting to all but the most die-hard observers of the Bulgarian political scene.
The party list is headed by the present EU Commissioner Mariya Gabriel, followed by 4 of the current incumbents. 6th on the list is an
UDF "Old Right" figure, since GERB is running a coalition in all but name with the first Bulgarian anti-communist party. No.7 is an
ex-infrastructure minister from the first GERB cabinet, who also headed the short-lived ministry for the presidency of the EU Council in 2018. No. 8 is the fifth of the incumbents, while
one is retiring after 2,5 terms - one of the two MEPs who had served continuously since Bulgaria's EU ascension. Even if Gabriel is considered a lock to be renominated to the next EU-commission, it is not realistic to expect that those behind the 8th position will be elected, at least initially, and in any event those are filled by generic GERB politicians, who are utterly anonymous.
The neck-and-neck state of the race is considered to be in no small part due to the anonymity, and general irrelevance of the incumbent MEPs and especially the list leader. Of course, people who vote for GERB mostly base their vote on the personality of party leader and PM Boyko Borisov, but it seems that GERB may suffer their second loss in the party's 12 years of existence, even if the BSP advantage is tiny in the most reputable polling.
Estimated seats - 5 to 7 BSP -
PES - 2014: 4 seats
After an ugly ugly battle to remove her predecessor as BSP leader, current PES President and incumbent MEP Sergey Stanishev from the party list, which was ultimately unsuccessful, current leader Ninova has washed her hands of the EU election, refusing to take responsibility for the outcome of the campaign. While rudderless, the campaign has been very aggressive on the anti-corruption message, with barely any mention of any European issues. In general, though, the BSP has been running a traditional anti-austerity, pro-Russian campaign, mixed with socially conservative messaging - ostensibly the reason why Stanishev was supposed to be dropped was because of his (and European PES) support for the
Istanbul convention.
The BSP list is now headed by
Elena Yoncheva, a journalist, MP and, maybe most importantly, Sergey Stanishev's ex-girlfriend. Second and third are two lucky scions of Socialist dynasties who were originally nominated in unelectable positions but in the open vote which settled the order proved inoffensive enough to both camps to move into the top spots. 4th is the chief of staff to president Radev - something which was necessary to forestall the expected personalist party Radev is almost certain to form at some point. Sergey Stanishev could only get 5th in the face of Ninova's opposition, while 6th is a confidante of the
only BSP MEP who is retiring of his own volition. One of the incumbents resigned in protest of being assigned the number 9 spot, which is currently occupied by the other current BSP MEP - the lucky number 15 on the 2014 list, who got elected preferentially after too many people marked the same number for the party list and the preference vote*. 7th is Ninova's choice for the no2 spot - an ex deputy PM in one of the caretaker cabinets of the past few years, who previously served in the EP from 2009 to 2013. There will be an active preference campaign within the BSP, so it may be that one of the people further back will be elected, but in that unlikely event, I will add a description later.
* to prevent this, from now on the candidates will be numbered with a three digit number on the ballot
Estimated seats - 5 to 7 DPS -
ALDE - 2014: 3 seats
There is not even a semblance of internal democracy within the DPS, nor do they do much campaigning in the sense the word is usually used, so the only question is how much of their captive vote will turn out in the EU elections. Rhetorically, of course, they are by far the most conscious of EU issues, but in practice, well, it's a different story.
The DPS list is headed by the party leader Karadayi, but it is very clear that he will not go to Brussels. The number 2 on the list, like in 2014, is a certain Mr.
Delyan Peevski, who was, er, discouraged from taking up the seat then, but appears to be determined to take it now. Not that he will actually go to the Brussels parliament more than he goes to the Sofia one - he has attended Parliament 3 times in the past 4 years - but he wants to live outside Bulgaria for now. One of the reasons why the DPS list leader in 2007, 2009 and 2014 is retiring is because this time Peevski will take up his seat, unless the ALDE intervene like they did in 2014. Peevski is often described as 'controversial' in press articles outside Bulgaria, but I would argue that there is no controversy at all - I have spoken to enough people in the major parties (even some in the DPS) to know that he is
universally loathed, but also universally feared. Anyway, the two other current MEPs are 3rd and 4th and a bunch of 20- and 30-somethings make up the rest.
Estimated seats - 3 to 5 Bulgaria without Censorship coalition -
ECR - 2014:2 seats
The idiocy that was BwC lasted only 9 months, but the damage was already done. The only party which has emerged relatively intact from the opportunistic project is VMRO, whose deputy leader Angel Dzhambazki, the no.2 on the 2014 BwC list, is running for reelection at the head of a VMRO list. Note that the parliamentary coalition "United Patriots", which is second fiddle in the GERB-led government, has predictably fallen apart for the EU elections and the other two parties - Attack and NFSB are running separate lists out of spite with zero chance of passing the threshold. Dzhambazki is running a fairly expensive and personal campaign, which means that he is probably the second or third most recognizable Bulgarian MEP - it has always been dangerous to step between him and a camera. The VMRO campaign is based on "Christian values", "identity" and other buzzwords, but in reality they rely on good old Roma bashing and having a few prominent individuals in the list, as well as exploiting every possible venue to be on TV. It may be just enough to retain Dzhambazki's seat and, due to the quirks of Hare-Niemeyer, if they get in, they will very likely get a second seat too, which will be filled by one of their national MPs.
Estimated seats - 0 to 2 On a side note, the BwC leader and face Nikolay Barekov is also running a hopeless troll campaign. Since trolling is what he has been doing for the past 5 years, he is getting quite good at it - I couldn't link to the actual facebook post, but you can click
here for a laugh. Just a quick explanation: 'gender' has become a pejorative in the Bulgarian political vernacular, meaning somebody who is either transgender, supports LGBT rights or is just generally socially liberal. Or is paid by Soros. Or, you know, is disagreeable in general.
Reformist bloc -
EPP - 2014:1 seat
With the exception of the UDF (see the GERB entry), the remaining 'Old Right' parties are either not running or are in the "Democratic Bulgaria" coalition of DSB (who have dropped the 'New Republic' branding), 'Yes Bulgaria' and the Greens. DB are hoping there would be enough pro-European urban dwellers who would never vote Socialist, but are nevertheless disgusted with GERB's malfeasance, to retain their seat and relevance, which is looking a marginal proposition at best. The incumbent MEP (from the DSB, having gained his seat through preference voting in 2014) was planning on running again until he missed an important vote in early March, so he decided to step down. Radan Kanev, the ex-DSB leader (see the
2017 parliamentary thread for more details) has jumped in at the head of the list. Note that while he, like his party, is EPP and would seat with that group, in the unlikely event he is pushed down by preference votes or DB elects more than one MEP, it is not certain where that person would sit. The No. 2, presented by Yes Bulgaria, has announced that as long as Fidesz is a part of the EPP, he cannot be a part of that grouping, while the No. 3 would presumably sit with the Greens-EFA.
Estimated seats - 0 to 1 I'm still voting for them thoThe remaining however many parties, coalitions and independents (including Volya, currently aligned to MENF, which is represented in the national parliament) do not appear to have any chance of passing the 5,88% barrier, so no matter how interesting their platforms, candidates and European alignments may be, I will not discuss them here.
Latest polling (from today, actually):
BSP - PES - 32.7%
GERB - EPP - 32.2%
DPS - ALDE - 9,2%
VMRO - ECR - 6%
DB - EPP? - 4,5%
No other party, coalition or independent is above 2%
Back of the envelope calculations show that this would result in a BSP - 6, GERB - 6, DPS - 3, VMRO - 2 seat distribution, however DPS traditionally underpolls - their voters are hard to reach for Bulgarian-speaking pollsters.
