European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[EPG]

Probably. The UK, with its very low turnout is leaving. And for the first time since 1999, there are no new Eastern countries to reduce turnout. (http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm)

[TheSaint250]

For Dutch posters: is FvD planning on contesting the elections/joining an EU party or group?

[DavidB.]

For Dutch posters: is FvD planning on contesting the elections/joining an EU party or group?

They do plan on running; it is unclear whether they seek to join any group, and if so, which one.

[Diouf]

Quatremer sometimes has a lively fantasy, but I'm guessing accounts like the below will not be a great endorsement for Barnier.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/a-very-eu-coup-martin-selmayrs-astonishing-power-grab/

[EPG]

Quatremer sometimes has a lively fantasy, but I'm guessing accounts like the below will not be a great endorsement for Barnier.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/a-very-eu-coup-martin-selmayrs-astonishing-power-grab/

It is deluded to think former Prime Ministers and Foreign Affairs ministers serve as Commissioners at the indulgence not of the heads of government, but of a glorified fixer.

[Zanas]

Predictions :
- GUE/NGL will consistently poll, in aggregators, as gaining 10 to 20 MEPs on their current 50, and will end up actually lose a few.
- Turnout in France will still dig deeper than last time. Probably nearly everywhere else as well, except peculiar cases (national or local election held on that day, huge scandal).

[Former President tack50]

And we have our first deal among nationalists!

http://www.laopinion.es/canarias/2018/03/16/coalicion-canaria-pnv-pactan-vez/860012.html

PNV and the Canarian Coalition have signed another deal to go together in the EU parliament elections, just like in 2009 and 2014. The question now is whether PDECat will join them as well or not. The thing is that CC has been very harsh against Catalan nationalism, to the point where they supported article 155. So a coalition will be hard but not impossible.

If they do, they will probably hold their 3 seats.

If PDECat doesn't join them it gets a lot more interesting. In 2014 most of their votes came from PDECat, but if you only take the Canarian, Basque, Navarre and Galician (because of a small party named CxG) votes they would have narrowly taken 1 seat. CC will go down but PNV will probably go slightly up or stagnate.

I also wonder if PDECat will join ERC in some sort of "joint Catalan list" or run alone (there aren't many other right wing nationalists) if they reject reediting the 2014 alliance.

My prediction would be:
With PDECat: 3
Without PDECat: 0-1

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

My prediction:


no one will care about that elections, turnout will be absurdly low although probably a bit higher than in 2014.

[TheSaint250]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now this would be something.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now this would be something.

I don't see Fidesz switching. While they may occasionally mildly criticise Orbán when it's untenable to do otherwise, the EPP has given him so much political cover in practice. Why abandon that?

[Zinneke]

I found an article that seems pretty interesting and goes into depth about the backroom deals being developed. One thing that really caught my attention was this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Now this would be something.

I don't see Fidesz switching. While they may occasionally mildly criticise Orbán when it's untenable to do otherwise, the EPP has given him so much political cover in practice. Why abandon that?

Hypothetically : Because a wing of the EPP will say to the main players in the party (read : the Franco-Germans) : its either Fidesz or us. And they may have Macron as a bridge to form a more europhile group with some of the ALDE. 

I also think Selmayr and a couple of europhile German MEPs in his camp (led by his mentor/tyrant Brok) are also sharpening the knives on Orban. This is ironic because it was Kohl's CDU that decided that the EPP should just be a broad tent of right-wing to centrist parties rather than exclusively in the European Christian Democratic tradition.

Either way I don't think things are looking particularly rosy for the EPP. French LR might get eviscerated. Forza Italia won't perform in Europeans unless an emerging M5S-Lega government becomes a circus act. And their traditional S&D "frenemies" will be weakened too. If the EPP is left looking for new partners then Fidesz could switch groups and still maintain their influence in Brussels. They'll have just timed their switch far better than David Cameron did.

[DavidB.]

I sincerely hope Macron will succeed in breaking up the existing system and I hope (wishful thinking, I know) that those opposed to an ever-closer EU in which sovereignty is trampled on will finally manage to overcome their differences and unite: an ever-closer union of European nationalists, if you will (though the toxic triangle of XA, Jobbik and NPD should definitely be excluded). I would love to vote for a Dutch party being part of such an alliance. Whether that would be FvD or PVV does not matter to me. I hope the FPÖ won't succeed in dividing political forces that ultimately have the same goals.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't read too much into that article about the "FPÖ trying to form a new group" ...

This article seems kinda outdated to me: There was some speculation right after the election that the FPÖ might exit the FN's grouping in the EU parliament, because they are now in the government and "more moderate".

But this was denied soon after.

And it wouldn't make much sense for the FPÖ to leave that group either.

"Brussels insiders understand that ..." is only a code term for "we have no clue what is going on, so let's make something up to waste our time until the actual election".

[EPG]

It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

[Zinneke]

It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

Agreed, however there is still value in the macro parties in the sense that even some weak form of party discipline is more effecient policymaking than no parties whatsoever. The actual members of the EPP (as opposed to the ones that just sit in the group) for example are well whipped on technical issues that don't make national media enough to have an electoral impact (which is like 80% of the EP's actual power). Some get picked off by lobbying/national interest but eventually even the fanatical lobbyists would enjoy a system where you can walk into one faction leader's office and not 27.

But you're right We'll only see this more clearly if/when the EPP-SnD-ALDE triumvirate of establishment or "pro-Maastricht" parties lose a majority and some more interesting coalitions will have to take place.

[EPG]

It's hard to divine the intentions behind the movements of the Europarties, but it doesn't really matter because they don't do any campaigning anyway. I mean, it might matter if racists like Geert Wilders and anti-European gadflies like Le Pen were going to win, but they are not.

Agreed, however there is still value in the macro parties in the sense that even some weak form of party discipline is more effecient policymaking than no parties whatsoever. The actual members of the EPP (as opposed to the ones that just sit in the group) for example are well whipped on technical issues that don't make national media enough to have an electoral impact (which is like 80% of the EP's actual power). Some get picked off by lobbying/national interest but eventually even the fanatical lobbyists would enjoy a system where you can walk into one faction leader's office and not 27.

But you're right We'll only see this more clearly if/when the EPP-SnD-ALDE triumvirate of establishment or "pro-Maastricht" parties lose a majority and some more interesting coalitions will have to take place.

Exactly - I meant to write - It doesn't matter what they decide until after the election is complete!

[Diouf]

[Former President tack50]

Not sure if it even counts as a poll, but whatever. It's allegedly an internal poll from the Spanish government but it might be completely made up. In any case, if even remotely true, it's very surprising to say the least.

59 seats:

PSOE (S&D): 22% (14)
PP (EPP): 22% (14)
Cs (ALDE): 16.2% (10)
Podemos (GUE/NGL): 11.4% (7)
IU (GUE/NGL): 6% (4)
Vox (-): 4.2% (2)
Equo (G/EFA): 2.6% (1)
Pacma (-): 2.4% (1)
UPyD (ALDE): 1.8% (1)

Coalition for Europe (PDECat+PNV+CC) (ALDE): 4.6% (3)
ERC (G/EFA): 2.8% (1)
The Peoples Dedide (Bildu+BNG) (GUE/NGL-G/EFA): 2.4% (1)

http://electomania.es/filtracion-de-proyeccion-de-moncloa-para-europeas-empate-pp-psoe-entran-vox-equo-y-pacma/

Not sure what is less believable. PSOE being tied for first, Vox getting not just 1 but 2 MEPs, UPyD somehow still managing to survive or the fact that they polled Equo separately even though they almost certainly won't run alone (either they'll go with Podemos or do the "European Spring" coalition with Valencian nationalist Compromís again).

Worth noting that "The Peoples decide" coalition has 2 different EU parliament groups, but unless they unexpectedly have an amazing night, they'll only get 1 seat, which will belong to Bildu (GUE/NGL), the larger coalition partner.

In any case, in terms of the parties that don't have a group, PACMA will almost certainly join G/EFA. Vox will be interesting. They could join any of ECR, EFDD or ENF. I'd say they'd join the last one but they could join any of them. For now I'll give it to ENF.

So, that would leave an EU total of:

EPP: 14
S&D: 14
ALDE: 14
GUE/NGL: 12
G-EFA: 3
ENF: 2

Almost a perfect 4 way tie!

[Former President tack50]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/985202225583566848

Granted, this won't be in place for the 2019 EU parliament election, but it would change a lot of stuff for 2024. Depending on where exactly they put the threshold, it might affect more or less (2% would have little effect, 5% would be a big deal) Looking at each country:

Germany: Pre-2014, they used a 5% threshold, like in national elections. In 2014 they had to ditch that and tons of small parties entered. The result of going back to a threshold would mean that most of those small parties woudl disappear (maybe with a 2% threshold some of them could stay, but most would be gone)

However the interesting thing would be the legal consecuences. The threshold was ruled unconstitutional in Germany, so if the EU decides to put one, then there will be a contradiction between the German constitution and EU election rules. No idea how it will be solved (maybe they just do a constitucional ammendment and that's it, maybe it goes to a court)

France: While they plan on going back to a single at-large constituency, they will put a 5% threshold anyways. So it won't have an effect. If the EU puts a lower threshold then we might see parties entering that might fail to do so in 2019 (EELV, UDI-Agir, etc)

Italy:: Italy already has a 4% threshold, so again, almost nothing would change. Maybe it could go down slightly (so, less need for coalitions), maybe it could go up slightly. But probably the least affected member state

Spain: Probably the most affected alongside Germany. Especially since Spain doesn't really use thresholds in any kind of national election. The changes a 5% threshold would bring would be massive. Tactical voting would be applied (so small parties would be harmed, no chance for random upsets like Podemos and Cs in 2014 or Ruiz Mateos in 1989). Until now the European elections were seen as the chance for small parties to shine and get surprisingly good results. People had nothing to lose.

Also, while under a very low threshold they might still be ok, with a 5% threshold nationalists would be toast. They would have to form quite broad alliances.

At least there won't be a constitutional contradiction unlike in Germany though

Poland: Poland seems to use a constituency based system. So while there might be a nominal threshold, it probably won't apply unless a party manages to get some sort of regional appeal (and thus gets a ton of votes in one constituency but nothing everywhere else, and ends up below 5% nationally). Since Poland doesn't seem to have such parties, it will probably be fine.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Poland: Poland seems to use a constituency based system. So while there might be a nominal threshold, it probably won't apply unless a party manages to get some sort of regional appeal (and thus gets a ton of votes in one constituency but nothing everywhere else, and ends up below 5% nationally). Since Poland doesn't seem to have such parties, it will probably be fine.

No, you need 5% nationally irrespective of how many votes you might get in any particular constituency.

[Former President tack50]

Poland: Poland seems to use a constituency based system. So while there might be a nominal threshold, it probably won't apply unless a party manages to get some sort of regional appeal (and thus gets a ton of votes in one constituency but nothing everywhere else, and ends up below 5% nationally). Since Poland doesn't seem to have such parties, it will probably be fine.

No, you need 5% nationally irrespective of how many votes you might get in any particular constituency.

Fair enough. So even that "regional party" scenario is impossible nowadays? Then it won't be affected (other than possibly the threshold being lowered)

[parochial boy]

what's the, umm, rationale for this? Of all the reforms the European parliament needs, I wouldn't have put thresholds at the top of the list

[Former President tack50]

what's the, umm, rationale for this? Of all the reforms the European parliament needs, I wouldn't have put thresholds at the top of the list

Honestly, I don't know either. Especially considering that as it is meant right now, it would only affect Germany and Spain.

The EU parliament needs a lot of reforms, but asking for thresholds is definitely not one of them

[EPG]

"introducing obligatory thresholds is recognised by constitutional tradition as a legitimate means of guaranteeing that parliaments are able to function" ... The Parliament "considers this measure to be important for safeguarding the functioning of the European Parliament, since it will avoid further fragmentation". Or, a lot of garbage to protect big parties, especially rapporteur Jo Leinen's SPD, plus the usual power-grab by unpopular EU institutions vis-a-vis states. (link in English)

[Diouf]

what's the, umm, rationale for this? Of all the reforms the European parliament needs, I wouldn't have put thresholds at the top of the list

I guess, it's primarily a German wish after their CC removed the threshold and allowed several micro-parties, including joke-party die Partei to win a seat.