European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Former President tack50]

Best campaign slogan IMO "Jesus Yes, EU No"

[DavidB.]

Best campaign slogan IMO "Jesus Yes, EU No"

This dude does seem like a genuinely good guy: https://youtu.be/G6vq7c8eSl8.

In the category "weird Dutch parties", in the last European election in 2014 there was also a (considerably less likeable) party named the "IQ: the Rights and Duties Party" which managed to get on the ballot and therefore received time to advertise on tv on primetime, in which this old German dude with a heavy German accent peddled a bizarre conspiracy theory about Ashkenazi multimillionaires using brown people as weapons of mass destruction (not even paraphrasing here). But apparently this dude gave up his hopes to sit with his ideological friend in the German NPD, as he isn't on the ballot this time.

[Diouf]

The Danish candidate lists are now official. Most of it was known already, but the Social Liberals made an interesting late addition. Former MP Nadeem Farooq has been added to the list. He was an MP from 2011-2015, when he was Financial Spokesperson for the party. He vigorously articulated and defended the Social Liberals' economic policies, which caused a lot of ire with their coalition partnerns. He didn't run in 2015, and has been a deputy director in the Employers’ Association for the Financial Sector since. The Social Liberals are close to or on two seats in several recent polls, and he should be in play for that second seat. The biggest competitor is likely to be Karen Melchior, a radical Copenhagen City councillor, who finished 2nd for the Social Liberals in 2014 with 10 412 votes. Farooq also seems like the only candidate with an immigrant background, who really stands a chance.



Full candidate list:
https://valg.oim.dk/media/22468/fortegnelse-over-opstillede-kandidatlister-partier-og-opstillede-kandidater-til-europa-parlamentsvalget-2019.pdf

[Mike88]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

[Former President tack50]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

Wait, I thought CDS was trying to appear moderate? What happened to that?

I've certainly never thought about CDS as a right wing populist party like say Vox is (or AfD, or Lega, etc).

Is trying to become such a party a dead end and counter-productive in Portugal? (leading to results similar to our PP yesterday) Or is there a real opening for a right wing populist party there?

[Mike88]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

Wait, I thought CDS was trying to appear moderate? What happened to that?

I've certainly never thought about CDS as a right wing populist party like say Vox is (or AfD, or Lega, etc).

Is trying to become such a party a dead end and counter-productive in Portugal? (leading to results similar to our PP yesterday) Or is there a real opening for a right wing populist party there?

No one knows what has gotten to Melo's head. Cristas always wanted to portrait herself, and CDS, as a moderate alternative to Costa. Melo, on the other hand, was never a moderate, but still, his remarks make no sense. Why is he doing this? Well, polling hasn't been brilliant for CDS, there's no surge for them and they are seeing the PSD being successful in gathering the vast majority of conservative/center-right votes, plus protest votes, against the PS. In fact, recent polling show PS and PSD neck and neck, with a strong possibility of the PSD defeating the PS, and if this costs 20-30% of the CDS' current 7-8% polling to go to the PSD, PSD will most likely surge ahead of the PS.

Past polling in Portugal, showed that when PSD and CDS were very negative and sometimes radical, during Passos Coelho leadership f.e., they plummet in the polls. This move from CDS will not help them at all, as they are being attacked by all sides, left, right, media, social media. There's another right-wing coalition on the ballot, BASTA! (ENOUGH!) headed by André Ventura. In the last poll, they gain almost 2%, ahead of PAN and the Alliance. It's still to be seen how much electoral strength he will have.

[Tender Branson]

Burgenland (= state of Austria) EU poll:

34% ÖVP (+3%)
33% SPÖ (-1%)
20% FPÖ (+2%)
  8% Greens (n.c.)
  3% NEOS (-2%)
  1% E-Now (+1%)
  1% Others (-3%)

This is bad news for the SPÖ, because Burgenland is one of their strongholds. They should not be overtaken by the ÖVP there ... but even in 2017 it was already extremely close.

https://www.tt.com/ticker/15591777/doskozil-kaeme-laut-umfrage-bei-lh-direktwahl-auf-57-prozent

[DavidB.]

Ipsos for EenVandaag, the Netherlands:

VVD 5 (+2)
Forum voor Democratie 5 (+5)
CDA 3 (-2)
GroenLinks 3 (+1)
D66 2 (-2)
PVV 2 (-2)
PvdA 2 (-1)
CU-SGP 2
SP 1 (-1)
PvdD 1
50Plus 0
DENK 0

[Keep Calm and ...]

  8% Greens (n.c.)
 

How relistic is this?
The Burgenland was the weakest Bundesland 2014 (with 8.1% 6.5 lower than whole austria)

[Tender Branson]

  8% Greens (n.c.)
 

How relistic is this?
The Burgenland was the weakest Bundesland 2014 (with 8.1% 6.5 lower than whole austria)

Not sure.

I think the Greens will do relatively well in the EU election, compared with their abysmal 2017 federal election result (3.8%), but lose compared with the 2014 EU election (14.6%).

I think 8-10% is realistic for them, with another 2-4% for Europe Now.

PS: a new ORF Report poll today projects turnout at 51%, which would be 6% higher than in 2014.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is out with their next wave of posters, among them is a poster to increase turnout to prevent a shift to the (far)-right („Vote instead of remaining silent.“):



They are also out with a campaign video showing a single-mom with 2 kids:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eupP3H6zgls

[Tender Branson]

Austria's Wahlkabine is online. 25 questions can be answered about the EU election to see which party you closest to. My closest party is the SPÖ, with the FPÖ dead last.



https://wahlkabine.at/eu2019/wahlkabine/1

[DavidB.]

FPÖ 238, ÖVP 90, EUROPA 19, NEOS -85, KPÖ -165, SPÖ -173, GRÜNE -291.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ 238, ÖVP 90, EUROPA 19, NEOS -85, KPÖ -165, SPÖ -173, GRÜNE -291.

Even though I agree on such things as "the EU should not set up their own asylum agency" (the countries should of course continue to decide on their own) and "development aid payments should be tied to deportation agreements with the countries that receive them" - all key FPÖ-positions - the FPÖ still ranked dead last in my results.

Maybe because the FPÖ also support such things as not getting rid of coal as energy source or continuing to oppress the gays ...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[bigic]

I'm surprised that the commies score higher than OVP or SPO

[Mike88]

Portugal: 1st debate between the main parties will happen tonight on SIC TV. Invited to the debate are the PS, PSD, CDU, CDS, BE and PDR main candidates.

We'll see if Europe is even talked about...

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Nothing from Eastern and Baltic candidates?

[DavidB.]

The Dutch votematch test was supposed to be launched tomorrow, but the organization responsible for it found out that PvdA and GL had given the exact same answers to both the 30 initial questions and the 30 backup questions, LOL. Apparently they found this to be a reason to delay the launch and come up with a new set of questions instead of doing the intellectually honest thing and show voters they might as well flip a coin between those two. So when I post the thing, remember that the statements on which PvdA and GL have a different opinion don't actually matter

[Mike88]

Portugal: 1st debate between the main parties will happen tonight on SIC TV. Invited to the debate are the PS, PSD, CDU, CDS, BE and PDR main candidates.

We'll see if Europe is even talked about...

The debate just finished.


Candidates in SIC TV studios. From left to right: Marinho e Pinto (PDR); João Ferreira (CDU); Pedro Marques (PS); Paulo Rangel (PSD); Marisa Matias (BE); Nuno Melo (CDS). Picture from Diário de Notícias

Europe was talked about, but, not so much, in my view. Pundits say the debate didn't had a clear winner, Pedro Marques, PS, gained a bit of strength as the debate went on, but he started in a very low bar; Paulo Rangel, PSD, was quite moderate but didn't exceed expectations; Nuno Melo, CDS, was quite energetic, bringing photos of José Sócrates hugging António Costa and exceeded expections, but, it reamis to see if this gains votes for CDS; Marisa Matias, BE, was also moderate and had a good performance; Marinho e Pinto, PDR, exceeded expectations as he was also very energetic, we'll see if that translates into votes; João Ferreira, CDU, was quite low profile. although it was clear the tension between him and Marisa Matias.


One of the highlights of debate: Nuno Melo (CDS) showing a picture of Sócrates and Costa. Picture from Observador newspaper.

Other topics talked about were the 7% cut of EU funds to Portugal, with a strong exchange of words between PS and PSD; the situation in Venezuela, with a war of words between PS and PSD/CDS about José Sócrates; Brexit, in which the PSD proposed an alliance with the Atlantic countries; The far-right increase in Europe, with the PS accusing the right of normalizing it and PSD saying that PES isn't without faults, Malta and Romenia were an example.

[DavidB.]

Dutch Stemwijzer was lauched: https://eu-eng.stemwijzer.nl/#intro. Apparently it was supposed to be launched last week already. PvdA and GL now answer one question differently.

[Umengus]

France

Opinionway

RN : 24% LREM : 21% LR : 14% FI : 8% (↘ 1) EELV : 8% (↗1) PS : 5% (↘ 1) G•s : 4% DLF : 4% PCF : 3% UDI : 3% UPR : 1% LO : 1% LP : 1%

Ifop (rolling)

RN: 22,5
Lrem 21,5
LR 15
Greens 9
FI 8,5
PS 5
DLF 4,5
Generations 3
communists: 3
Yellow list 2
...

[jaichind]

So in France will there a Yellow vests list on the ballot ? I see polling that include them but I thought the Yellow vests are really a confederation of very diverse protest groups and there is no way there could be a list with a coherent platform.   

[parochial boy]

So in France will there a Yellow vests list on the ballot ? I see polling that include them but I thought the Yellow vests are really a confederation of very diverse protest groups and there is no way there could be a list with a coherent platform.  

From what I can tell, there are two separate "Gilets jaunes" lists as of today - one called "Alliance Jaune" led by Francis Lalane and another one called "Evolution Citoyenne" led by Christophe Chalençon. Simplifying somewha; Lalanne is a bit more Green-lefty; and Chalençon is a bit more nationalist-righty (both, mostly, are self-important "grandes gueules" essentially). Other figures have also cropped up on Philippot and NDA's lists.

But basically yeah, the reason they are all polling shambolically is because, well the lack of a unifiying ideologicall. That, and a big part of the movement from the very beginning has been the vehement rejection of any form of "leadership" or "spokesmen" (I mean, who even remembers Ingrid Levavaseur now?)

[bigic]

Why do wedding rings appear when I Google "Alliance Jaune"?