European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Mike88]

Portugal - Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %: (compared with the last poll)

32.4% PS (+2.1), 7/8 seats
24.8% PSD (-3.2), 6/7
12.9% BE (+1.6), 2/3
  7.1% CDU (+0.6), 1/2
  6.7% CDS (-0.9), 1/2
  3.3% PAN (+1.6), 1
  2.1% PDR (+0.4), 0/1
  1.2% Alliance (new), 0
  1.0% BASTA! (new), 0
  8.5% Others/Invalid, 0

Poll conducted between 10 and 19 May 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Last polling before election day:

Aximage poll:

Vote share %:

32.5% PS (+0.8 ), 8/9 seats
25.4% PSD (-3.6), 6/7
11.4% BE (+3.1), 3
  9.3% CDU (+0.9), 2
  6.8% CDS (-0.9), 1/2
  2.5% Alliance (+1.2), 0
  1.4% PAN (+0.1), 0
10.7% Others/Invalid (-1.6), 0

34.2% Turnout (-6.4)*

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 May 2019. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.80%.
*Compared with the last poll. Compared with the 2014 election, turnout is up 0.5%.

Eurosondagem poll:

Vote share %:

35.5% PS (+1.5), 9/10
25.5% PSD (-1.6), 7
  7.6% CDU (-0.5), 2
  7.0% CDS (-0.1), 1/2
  6.9% BE (-0.2), 1/2
  2.5% Alliance (-0.8 ), 0/1
  2.5% PAN (-0.8 ), 0/1
12.5% Others/Invalid (+2.5), 0

Poll conducted between 15 and 22 May 2019. Polled 2,025 voters. MoE of 2.18%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: State of play and polling average, displayed in a table done by one of Portugal's most renown pollsters, Pedro Magalhães: (table with poll results from the first and second weeks of the 2019 campaign compared, in the same period, with 2014 and 2009).

https://twitter.com/PCMagalhaes/status/1131866703128870914

[Mike88]

Portugal - Aximage poll on the EP election campaign:

Q: Do you think people are enlighten about what all the different parties proposed to do in the next European Parliament?

76.1% No
12.0% Yes
11.9% Undecided

Poll conducted between 16 and 20 May 2019. Polled 622 voters. MoE of 3.80%.

[Mike88]

Amazing map:

Europe from Left to Right
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-05/elections-in-europe-eu-countries-results-map-english

[Mike88]

All polling stations have open in Portugal at 8am, with only one polling station in the North, in Morgrade parish, Montalegre, being boycotted by the population because of the government's decision to approve a mine of lithium in that parish. Meanwhile, the polling station in the parish has opened but no one is voting.

There are 10,761,156 registered voters for these elections: 9,329,331 in Portugal itself and 1,431,825 abroad. There are fears the turnout rates will drop to a record low, below 30%, because of the high rate of registered voters.

Portugal

Portugal is one of the few EU countries without a strongly-performing far-right populist party. This election has seen the emergence of Andre Ventura’s radical-right Basta! (Enough!) movement, which opposes the EU. Campaigning has focussed on the opposition attacking Portugal’s ruling socialists on domestic issues, with an eye on a forthcoming national poll. It will, therefore, be interesting to see whether the pro-EU socialists are able to better their performance from 2014 when they got 34% of the vote.

Good summary, Tender. Just a small correction, the PS got 31.5% in 2014, not 34%. In Portugal, blank/invalid ballot count for the overall total.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Turnout at 12:00 (noon):

2019 11.56%
2014 12.14%
2009 11.84%
2004 14.20%

[Mike88]

Portugal - Turnout at 16:00:

2019 23.37%
2014 26.31%
2009 26.82%

[Mike88]

Portugal: Polls have closed in Continental Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

Turnout projections by the main TV networks:

RTP1: 30-35%

SIC: 29.5-33.5%

[Mike88]

Portugal: Polls have closed in Continental Portugal and Madeira. Still open in Azores.

Turnout projections by the main TV networks:

RTP1: 30-35%

SIC: 29.5-33.5%

Turnout averages gives us a turnout of 32% (-1.7 compared with 2014). In terms of actual votes, this means that around 3,443,000 voters may have cast a ballot (+159,000 compared with 2014).

[Mike88]

A journalist on SIC TV just said that PS and PSD, combined, will only sum something just above 50%... Yikes! Waiting for the exit polls.

[Mike88]

Rumours that Basta! has won a seat. We'll see.

[Mike88]

Portugal - Exit polls:

RTP1

30-34% PS
20-24% PSD
  9-12% BE
    7-9% CDU
    5-7% CDS
    4-6% PAN

SIC

30.9-34.9% PS
21.8-25.8% PSD
  8.5-11.5% BE
    5.3-8.3% CDU
    4.7-7.3% PAN
    4.7-7.3% CDS

[Mike88]

Portugal - Exit polls:

RTP1

30-34% PS
20-24% PSD
  9-12% BE
    7-9% CDU
    5-7% CDS
    4-6% PAN

SIC

30.9-34.9% PS
21.8-25.8% PSD
  8.5-11.5% BE
    5.3-8.3% CDU
    4.7-7.3% PAN
    4.7-7.3% CDS

Abysmal result for the right. I'm shocked.

Yeah... PSD really bad, but CDS... Jesus!

CMTV has also an exit poll:

33.4% PS
27.1% PSD
12.1% BE
  8.8% CDU
  7.6% CDS

Let's see what the real results say.

[Mike88]

The official results are out here in Portugal... And they confirm the catastrophic results for the right wing opposition parties, especially CDS

With around 96% counted

33.8% PS
22.8% PSD
 9.5% BE
 6.5% CDU
 6.0% CDS
 4.7% PAN
 1.7% Aliança
 1.6% Livre
 1.5% Basta
 1.0% NC
 0,9% PCTP/MRPP
 0,8% IL
 0,5% PDR
 0,5% PNR
 0,4% PURP
 0,3% PTP
 0,2% MAS

Really bad for PSD and CDS. Alliance, Basta! and IL, all parties formed by splits from PSD, have very weak results.

Now, the results site is just crashing.... It's very annoying.

[Mike88]

My hometown, Póvoa de Varzim, results:

33.0% PSD
25.4% PS
  9.7% CDS
  8.8% BE
  4.8% PAN
  3.3% CDU
  1.7% Livre
  1.4% Alliance
  1.2% NC
  1.0% Basta!
  0.9% IL
  0.6% PCTP
  0.5% PDR
  0.4% PURP
  0.3% PNR
  0.2% PTP
  0.2% MAS
  6.8% Blank/Invalid

30.8% Turnout

[Mike88]

According to the results, PSD only wins in Vila Real and Madeira. Leiria and Bragança, two huge bastions, were very close but the PS has edge out in front with a few hundred votes.

PS wins in all the other districts.

[Mike88]

Final results from Portugal:

33.4% PS (+1.9), 9 seats (+1)
21.9% PSD, 6 (nc)
  9.8% BE (+5.2), 2 (+1)
  6.9% CDU (-5.7), 2 (-1)
  6.2% CDS, 1 (nc)
  5.1% PAN (+3.4), 1 (+1)
  1.9% Alliance (new), 0
  1.8% Livre (-0.4), 0
  1.5% Basta! (+0.6), 0
  1.0% NC (new), 0
  0.9% IL (new), 0
  0.8% PCTP (-0.9), 0
  0.5% PNR (nc), 0
  0.5% PDR (new), 0 (-1)
  0.4% PURP (new), 0
  0.3% PTP (-0.4), 0
  0.2% MAS (-0.2)
  7.0% Blank/Invalid

31.4% Turnout (-2.3)

By EU parties: PES - 33.4%, 9 seats (+1); EPP - 28.1% 7 seats (nc); GUE-NGL - 16.7%, 4 seats (nc); EGP - 5.1%, 1 seat (+1)

[Mike88]

Elections maps from Portugal:

Biggest party by municipality:


PS vote % by municipality:


PSD vote % by municipality:


CDU vote % by municipality:


and.. PAN vote % by municipality:


More maps here.