European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[PSOL]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

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Egos

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Egos

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Egos

Get the point?

Oh come on, not all of it can be directly attributed to egos of the party leaders.

On the last point I do have some insight. The PCF has a more strict sense of obeying Marxist-Leninist dogma than the “movement” that is FI; being made up of a hodgepodge of old school social democrats, Green dissenters, and Leftist French Nationalists. Since the PCF won’t budge on policy and contains members hesitant on coalition cooperation, the parties remain separate.

[parochial boy]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

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Egos

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Egos

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Egos

Get the point?

Oh come on, not all of it can be directly attributed to egos of the party leaders.

On the last point I do have some insight. The PCF has a more strict sense of obeying Marxist-Leninist dogma than the “movement” that is FI; being made up of a hodgepodge of old school social democrats, Green dissenters, and Leftist French Nationalists. Since the PCF won’t budge on policy and contains members hesitant on coalition cooperation, the parties remain separate.

Well, the PCF really gave up the doctrinaire marxism in the Robert Hue days, if not before.

They backed Méluche in 2012 (the front de gauche days); didn't not back him in the presidential last year; and then fell out in the legislatives, largely over a question of who gets which candidates + fear of being overpowered by Méluche. Then, one of the big stories of this autumn was a massive falling out between Ian Brossat (head of the PCF list) and Adrien Quatennens, the FI député.

So yes, as with basically everything that happens in French politics, I think "egos" pretty much covers it

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Other thing that Melenchon strictly wanted all candidates to use only FI logo and posters approved by FI HQ which was totally stupid.

[Umengus]

The election is in 5 months, the campaign hasn't started, we don't know who will lead the LREM list, ... I don't know how you can be sure that RN will be first with a 5 points lead in the middle of a political crisis for Macron.

A lot can happen in 5 months, especially we will have Brexit and its immediate consequences just 2 months ahead of the vote.

Macron is going to be unpopular for a vey long time IMO. The environment is revolutionary so it's good for RN, which has recovered from his defeat at the presidential runoff. So IMO, RN should be first and I don't see who can beat them.

But the real true important elections will be in 2020 (locals) and especially in 2021 (regionals): and RN can  take Haut de France ? PACA ? centre ?

[Umengus]

And the FN were at 25% in 2014. So flatlining isn't really all that great given how unpopular Macron is, how the traditional parties habe imploded and how RWPPs have progressed elsewhere

But it's the illustration that Marine Le Pen has recovered from her poor debate...

[Tirnam]

Why are all parties so fractured in France.

Egos

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Egos

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Egos

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Egos

Get the point?

Laurent Joffrin, journalist at Libération, resumes the situation perfectly :

"Judging itself too weak to run alone, the Socialist Party, which wants unity, supports the steps of Raphael Glucksmann, leader of the new movement Place publique, who wants unity but would like to achieve it around its movement by turning first towards Benoît Hamon, who wishes unity but on the condition that the PS does not participate, preferring the PCF, who wants unity but fears to disappear if it merges into a coalition list even if it needs the other forces to prepare the municipal elections, including the ecologists of Yannick Jadot, who wish unity but, seeing their poll numbers rise like a balloon, conceive it first with themselves, making sure that the other forces are de facto disappearing behind them and wanting in any event to exclude the Socialists for lukewarmness, who would, as well, be ready to side with Ségolène Royal, who wishes unity and wants a socialist list if it does not include socialists and has just proposed to be second behind a Yannick Jadot list, who wants unity but refuse to envisage it with Ségolène Royal, who would then constraint to achieve unity with herself and no one else. We see that all this is crystal clear."

[FredLindq]

Debout la France leaves EFDD and joins ECR.

Amy news regarding AFD? Is ENF a likley group for Them or might ECR be their Choice?

[Velasco]

Pablo Bustinduy will top the Unidos Podemos list in thr EP elections. Bustinduy is a young oolical scientist (aged 35) with a quite impressive academic curriculum alligned with the Errejon faction. He is member of the Congress of Deputies for Madrid and the UP spokesman in the Foreign Affairs Committee. Podemis leader Pablo Iglesias was candidate in 2014 (Podemos got 8% starting ftom scratch, while the IU list got 10%).

PSOE  hired French-Algerian political scientist, philosopher and sociologist Sami Nair, who is a renowned migration expert. He was a French PS MEP between 1999 and 2004. Sami Nair was one if the experts hired by Pedro Sánchez to draft the PSOE platform for the 2015 elections. He will be in an electable position in the PSOE list. Possible top candidates, according to El Mundo, are ministers Josep Borrell (Foreign Affairs) or Nadia Calviño (Economy).

[DavidB.]

Amy news regarding AFD? Is ENF a likley group for Them or might ECR be their Choice?

Almost definitely going to be ENF.

[FredLindq]

So EFDD is dead or what?
Will M5S be able to create a new group?

[Former President tack50]

Pablo Bustinduy will top the Unidos Podemos list in thr EP elections. Bustinduy is a young oolical scientist (aged 35) with a quite impressive academic curriculum alligned with the Errejon faction. He is member of the Congress of Deputies for Madrid and the UP spokesman in the Foreign Affairs Committee. Podemis leader Pablo Iglesias was candidate in 2014 (Podemos got 8% starting ftom scratch, while the IU list got 10%).

PSOE  hired French-Algerian political scientist, philosopher and sociologist Sami Nair, who is a renowned migration expert. He was a French PS MEP between 1999 and 2004. Sami Nair was one if the experts hired by Pedro Sánchez to draft the PSOE platform for the 2015 elections. He will be in an electable position in the PSOE list. Possible top candidates, according to El Mundo, are ministers Josep Borrell (Foreign Affairs) or Nadia Calviño (Economy).

Wait so Miguel Urban (from the far left anticapitalist branch of the party) is retiring?

Also, for PSOE I don't ser Borrell as a candidate, (again, remember he was already PSOE EU leader in 2004). Maybe Calviño will, but what about Iratxe García, their current EU leader?

[Tender Branson]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

[DavidB.]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

How is that legal? I assume there are rules for this; i.e. that you have to reach a certain % of the vote in order to be eligible for a seat through preferential votes. So will they sort of force everyone to sign something that isn't technically legally binding and just hope they abide by it? Or do the seats belong to the party even from a legal standpoint?

[Tender Branson]

Kurz announced today that the ÖVP will use preference votes cast in the EU elections to determine which of their candidates will get a seat in Brussels.

This works as followed:

The ÖVP will create their EU list of candidates by the end of February. It is not yet clear if Othmar Karas will once again be their frontrunner, as he has often attacked the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition as "anti-European" and "too tough on immigration".

It is assumed that 5-7 ÖVP members will be elected to Brussels in the May 26 election.

But depending on how many preference votes the candidates get, someone who is 10th on the list can also move up to 6th place for example.

There will be no thresholds for ÖVP candidates: the 5-7 candidates with the most preference votes from Austrian voters will head to Brussels.

The ÖVP thinks that a preference vote campaign will increase turnout among ÖVP-voters and win them the election by a big margin.

https://orf.at/stories/3105548

How is that legal? I assume there are rules for this; i.e. that you have to reach a certain % of the vote in order to be eligible for a seat through preferential votes. So will they sort of force everyone to sign something that isn't technically legally binding and just hope they abide by it? Or do the seats belong to the party even from a legal standpoint?

I think I start with your last point: yes, the 5-7 seats belong to the ÖVP, for example if they get 25-35% of the vote and Austria has 19 seats in the EP.

The ÖVP did the same in 2017 as well: they set up their list and made the candidates sign a contract in which their candidates accept defeat if someone with more preference votes overtakes them on election day.

So, it is technically not legally binding like you said - but binding for candidates within the ÖVP. I guess nobody would challenge this, because it would mean the end of the career for someone within the party ...

And no, there will be no thresholds: The 5-7 candidates from the ÖVP with the most preference votes will go to Brussels. There will be significant competition within the ÖVP among candidates because of it. Like an intra-party jungle primary.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

[Former President tack50]

Here's an interesting article about how the Euro has affected several european countries, whether positively or negatively

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-euro-at-20/

An interesting fact is that the euro is popular in all countries using it, but among future candidates is only above water in Romania and Hungary and in both cases only barely

[Velasco]

Pablo Bustinduy will top the Unidos Podemos list in thr EP elections. Bustinduy is a young oolical scientist (aged 35) with a quite impressive academic curriculum alligned with the Errejon faction. He is member of the Congress of Deputies for Madrid and the UP spokesman in the Foreign Affairs Committee. Podemis leader Pablo Iglesias was candidate in 2014 (Podemos got 8% starting ftom scratch, while the IU list got 10%).

PSOE  hired French-Algerian political scientist, philosopher and sociologist Sami Nair, who is a renowned migration expert. He was a French PS MEP between 1999 and 2004. Sami Nair was one if the experts hired by Pedro Sánchez to draft the PSOE platform for the 2015 elections. He will be in an electable position in the PSOE list. Possible top candidates, according to El Mundo, are ministers Josep Borrell (Foreign Affairs) or Nadia Calviño (Economy).

Wait so Miguel Urban (from the far left anticapitalist branch of the party) is retiring?

Also, for PSOE I don't ser Borrell as a candidate, (again, remember he was already PSOE EU leader in 2004). Maybe Calviño will, but what about Iratxe García, their current EU leader?

I think Miguel Urban will be in the list, but not on the top. Podemos held primaries recently to elect Pablo Iglesias as candidate for the genral elections and Bustinduy was elected top EP candidate in the same day. The Unidos Podemos list will include as well people from IU, ICV (MEP Ernest Urtadun) and BComu (possibly deputy mayor of Barcelona Gerardo Pisarello)

As for the PSOE,  I've read that Pedro Sánchez wants Josep Borrell as top candidate for the EP elections, but it's too early. Borrell and other PSOE veterans already rejected to run in the Madrid local elections, but this is a very different contest.

Borrell was President of the European Parliament between 2004 and 2007, so he would be a very high profile candidate

[Tender Branson]

Parties that are not on the EP-ballot so far can collect the 2.600 signatures that are needed between March 12 and April 12 here.

Parties that are already on the ballot: ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Now.

Currently, it is unknown which small parties even want to compete - but I guess the Communists will, maybe the Christian Party and maybe EU-STOP.

[Mike88]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

[Mike88]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

Again, it's just my opinion, but that's not the case. In the US, you have the same candidates in all 50 states+DC on the ballot and the political parties are also the same in every state, and there's no proof that California voters are influenced by early returns from Florida, for example. So, it's not a very good comparison. In the EU it's the opposite. In Ireland, Greece or France PES is almost nonexistent, in Italy or Netherlands EPP is almost nonexistent, and in Portugal, for example, ADLE is nonexistent. Therefore, the party dynamics are completely different country by country, meaning that if Austria, for example, votes massively for OVP (EPP), that will not occur, or won't effect voters, in Italy, Portugal or Netherlands. Like i said above, EP parliament elections are more aligned with the political mood in each country and European issues are very neglected during the campaign.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

Again, it's just my opinion, but that's not the case. In the US, you have the same candidates in all 50 states+DC on the ballot and the political parties are also the same in every state, and there's no proof that California voters are influenced by early returns from Florida, for example. So, it's not a very good comparison. In the EU it's the opposite. In Ireland, Greece or France PES is almost nonexistent, in Italy or Netherlands EPP is almost nonexistent, and in Portugal, for example, ADLE is nonexistent. Therefore, the party dynamics are completely different country by country, meaning that if Austria, for example, votes massively for OVP (EPP), that will not occur, or won't effect voters, in Italy, Portugal or Netherlands. Like i said above, EP parliament elections are more aligned with the political mood in each country and European issues are very neglected during the campaign.

Maybe, but I'm still not confident that this is good logic. It might be the case that there's different strength among parties in the different countries (which is also the case in US elections), but what if for example the Dutch outfit the Far-Right with 40% (theoretically of course) in their Thursday vote ? It would certainly impact other voters in Europe when they vote on Sunday, if the Dutch result generates big waves in European media and TV outlets over the next days. So, for the benefit of the doubt I still think that the results of those countries voting earlier should be withheld or vote counting should not start until the last precinct in the EU has closed.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

Among all heads of government in the EU, Malta's PM Muscat has the biggest mandate from voters with 50% of all eligible voters in the country.

Sebastian Kurz has the 2nd-highest mandate from voters with 45.5% of eligible voters voting for his ÖVP-FPÖ government.

Funny that Spain's PM Sanchez and his government only have the backing of 14.9% of Spain's electorate.



For comparison: Donald Trump has the mandate of 27% of the US electorate (63 million votes of 231 million eligible voters).

[Former President tack50]

Well, apparently Europe Elects has quite a bit of useful information about the election. First, here are some platforms from all the groups based on EU parliament votes:



They are also tracking the "spitzenkandidaten" nominated:

https://europeelects.eu/2019spitzenkandidaten/

Seems like only EPP, S&D, ECR (surprisingly) and the green half of G/EFA has nominated a candidate. Of those, the EPP candidate will almost certainly be elected as president of the European Commission.

Of the rest:

ALDE has already refused to run a candidate.

EFDD will be lucky if they even hold a group, I don't think they will run a candidate. The site says nothing though.

ENF may run Matteo Salvini (Lega-Italy) as a candidate, but I honestly think that's unlikely.

GUE/NGL may or may not run a candidate. If they do, likely candidates include Gregor Gysi (Linke-Germany) as well as Jean Luc Melenchon (FI-France) and Pablo Iglesias (UP-Spain)

Finally, the EFA half of G/EFA may run its own candidate, most likely Oriol Junqueras (ERC-Spain), who would be running from prison! Though at this point the EFA group is pretty much just Spanish peripheral nationalists

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

GUE/NGL may or may not run a candidate. If they do, likely candidates include Gregor Gysi (Linke-Germany) as well as Jean Luc Melenchon (FI-France)

Isn't Melenchon party almost not a member of GUE-NGL? As far as I know currently they are ignoring GUE events and planing to start their own group without Linke and Syriza.