European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[EPG]

Matteo Renzi: "We should build a European coalition with Macron, Greens, Liberals and Tsipras. Frans Timmermans should be our candidate for Commission President".

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/09/20/alle-europee-con-macron-e-tsipras-e-timmermans-candidato-alla-presidenza-della-commissione_a_23534008/

Frans who? Manfred who? Do any of these people want a Commission with authority?

[DavidB.]

Matteo Renzi: "We should build a European coalition with Macron, Greens, Liberals and Tsipras. Frans Timmermans should be our candidate for Commission President".

https://www.huffingtonpost.it/2018/09/20/alle-europee-con-macron-e-tsipras-e-timmermans-candidato-alla-presidenza-della-commissione_a_23534008/

Frans who? Manfred who? Do any of these people want a Commission with authority?

"Frans who" is the current Vice-President of the European Commission and former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, not exactly a nobody.

[EPG]

Trust me that nobody normal outside the Benelux knows who he is nor what he stands for. Plenty of commissioners have meaningful profiles like Oettinger, Moscovici, and of course Vestager - maybe Renzi is trying to keep Vestager away from the Presidency by setting up a socialist lead candidate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Trust me that nobody normal outside the Benelux knows who he is nor what he stands for. Plenty of commissioners have meaningful profiles like Oettinger, Moscovici, and of course Vestager - maybe Renzi is trying to keep Vestager away from the Presidency by setting up a socialist lead candidate.

In Poland Timmermans is well known, probably even more that any economic issues commisioner.

[Diouf]

Oettinger and Moscovici are probably only more known in that they come from larger member states. Especially Moscovici has been completely invisible, certainly from a Northern European perspective. Oettinger might have been noticed by a small EU-interested leftwing niche as a posterboy of the crooked relationsship between centre-right politicians and big industry in Germany, but I don't think many others could pick him out from the crowd.

Based on my experience, these commissioners have gotten any screentime in Denmark this term:

Much:Juncker (quite a lot, and many more know him than Barrosso), Vestager (obvious in DK)
Some:Mogherini (Iran), Malmström (trade deals), Timmermans (for the Poland stuff)
A bit: Avramopoulos (migration crisis but mostly overshadowed on the subject by Juncker, Tusk and national leaders ),  Thyssen (specific Danish issue. Barely seen on screen, but in many newspaper articles because of her flat-out rejection of all Danish proposals on welfare benefits).

[mvd10]

Ah, our Frenske. Frenske probably is orgasming at the thought of someone who actually is (was) relevant mentioning his name. That's the exact reason he went to Europe anyway. But I don't mind bashing PiS at all tbh.

[EPG]

Irish constituencies will be arranged 5-4-4, 5 in the south of the country, 4 in Dublin and 4 in the rest.

With 8 months to go:
1 extra seat in the south will probably be FF (ALDE) with outside chance of FG (EPP)
1 in Dublin will probably be FF (ALDE)
Retiring S&D in Dublin may be replaced by Greens or one of the GUE-NGL affiliates, but in reality, this is an open seat for the most compelling new left-wing candidate.
No extra seat in the rest, but FF (ALDE) will probably gain from independent Harkin (ALDE) and FG (EPP) have an outside chance of taking one off independent Flanagan (GUE-NGL).

So an ALDE merry-go-round at the moment, ALDE +2 Greens or GUE-NGL +1 S&D -1, but if there is a change of government, all bets are off.

[Diouf]

As expected, Barnier will not run to become EPP spitzenkandidat. He is focusing on Brexit. However, ZDF reports that Alexander Stubb, former Finnish PM, will announce his candidature on Tuesday.

[Helsinkian]

Alexander Stubb is going to run for EPP Spitzenkandidat, challenging Manfred Weber.

[DavidB.]

Manfred Weber wants Bulgaria and Croatia in Schengen - obviously not looking for that GERB/HDZ vote for his candidacy.

[Diouf]

Moderates support Stubb

https://www.facebook.com/1694628737439476/posts/2248828152019529/

[Diouf]

Manfred Weber wants Bulgaria and Croatia in Schengen - obviously not looking for that GERB/HDZ vote for his candidacy.

HDZ officially behind Weber.

http://hr.n1info.com/a336560/English/NEWS/HDZ-to-support-Manfred-Weber-s-candidacy-in-EP-election.html

[Tender Branson]

New Austria EU poll:

[Former President tack50]

Politico seems to have a very interesting "Who should you vote for" test. A bit too early for such a test but still interesting! (and splits between EU and national results). Not sure how accurate it is but still

https://www.politico.eu/interactive/youvote-eu/

My results

EU

G/EFA: 68.63%
S&D: 66.01%
GUE/NGL: 61.44%
ALDE: 59.48%
EPP: 41.83%
EFDD: 28.76%
ECR: 28.10%
ENF: 25.53%

National (Spain) (excluding small parties and nominally independent regional branches)

Cs: 76.58%
PNV: 75.18%
Equo: 68.63%
ERC: 66.67%
PSOE: 66.01%
UPyD: 63.40%
Podemos: 63.27%
EH Bildu: 57.58%
IU: 57.52%
PP: 41.83%

By politicians the 3 MEPs closest to me seem to be Xavier Benito Zuloaga (GUE/NGL, Podemos), José Blanco López (S&D, PSOE) and Eva Kaili (S&D, PASOK)

Honestly surprised at the big difference between my regional results and my national results. For some reason PNV and Cs are way up there even though ALDE is quite lower! (in fact I'd have expected UPyD to be up there as well in that case but apparently not)

[DavidB.]

ECR 80.1%
ENF 76%
EFD 68.3%
ALDE 35%
EPP 35%
GUE-NGL 23.7%
S&D 22%
G/EFA 19.9%

Parties:
Liberal-Conservative Reformists (Germany): 88.6%
SGP (Netherlands): 83.6%
PVV (Netherlands): 82.8% (voted for them in the EP14 election)
VMRO (Bulgaria): 82.2%
CU (Netherlands): 81.9%
AfD (Germany): 81.4%
DUP (UK): 80.7%
DF (Denmark): 80.1%
Conservatori e Riformisti (Italy): 79.9%
Svobodni (Czechia): 78.6%
Ordinary People (Slovakia): 76.9%
Finns Party (Finland): 76.7%
Lega (Italy): 76.3%
Sweden Democrats (Sweden): 75.6%
ODS (Czechia): 73.6%
FN (France): 73%

[parochial boy]

Greens - 93.8%
GUE/NGL - 90.1%
S&D - 82.7%
ALDE - 54.9%
EPP - 40.1%
ENF - 19.9%
ECR - 10.5%

Guess I'm too much of a Eurofederalist for GUE/NGL

Top parties:
Initiative for Green Catalonia - 97.4%
Austrian Greens - 97.4%
Vasemmistoliitto (Finland) - 95.5%
Lithuanian Farmers and Greens - 93.6%
EQUO (Spain) - 93.5%
ERC (Spain) - 93.5%
German Greens - 93.4%
EELV (France) - 93.3%
Verjamem (Slovenia) - 93.0% (who?)
Vihreä liitto (Finland) - 92.9%
Latvian Russian Union - 92.0%
LMP (Hungary) - 91.0%
Front de Gauche - 91.0% (umm, keep up guys...)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol at the Lithuanian Farmers Party

[EPG]

My top matches are a lot of the Alliansen MEPs and Guy Verhofstadt, none of which surprises me. The best match I could vote for last time, I did vote for, so the test must work ok.

[bigic]

ALDE 65.33%
ECR 58.67%
EPP 57.33%
ENF 49.28%
S&D 46.67%
EFDD 44.00%
Greens/EFA 42.67%
GUE-NGL 33.33%

Top 10 national parties

Centerpartiet
Sweden
ALDE/ADLE
73.61%

Det Konservative Folkeparti
Denmark
EPP
71.21%

Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
Netherlands
ALDE/ADLE
70.67%

Venstre, Danmarks Liberale Parti
Denmark
ALDE/ADLE
70.18%

Det Radikale Venstre
Denmark
ALDE/ADLE
68.06%

Liberalerna
Sweden
ALDE/ADLE
66.67%

Svenska folkpartiet
Finland
ALDE/ADLE
66.67%

Christen Democratisch Appèl
Netherlands
EPP
65.33%

Liberal Democrats
United Kingdom
ALDE/ADLE
65.28%

Partij voor de Dieren
Netherlands
GUE-NGL
65.28%


Top 10 politicians:

Johannes Cornelis Van Baalen
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
ALDE/ADLE
Netherlands
74.24%

Fredrick Federley
Centerpartiet
ALDE/ADLE
Sweden
73.61%

David Campbell Bannerman
Conservative Party
ECR
United Kingdom
71.67%

Bendt Bendtsen
Det Konservative Folkeparti
EPP
Denmark
71.21%

Jan Huitema
Volkspartij voor Vrijheid en Democratie
ALDE/ADLE
Netherlands
70.67%

Guy Verhofstadt
Open Vlaamse Liberalen en Democraten
ALDE/ADLE
Belgium
68.12%

Morten Helveg Petersen
Det Radikale Venstre
ALDE/ADLE
Denmark
68.06%

Esther De Lange
Christen Democratisch Appèl
EPP
Netherlands
66.67%

Teresa Jiménez-Becerril Barrio
Partido Popular
EPP
Spain
66.67%

Geoffrey Van Orden
Conservative Party
ECR
United Kingdom
66.67%

I must be secretly Dutch or Scandinavian or something 😂

[bigic]

BTW Question 5 "Should asylum seekers be redistributed across EU countries on the basis of a quota system?" is a little problematic. I'm against a quota system because I want open borders and I'm for refugee settlement, not because I'm against refugee settlement. So I answered neutral on that question.

[parochial boy]

Lol at the Lithuanian Farmers Party

Maybe I just have tepid conservative views when it comes to Lithuanian politics ok?

[EPG]

BTW Question 5 "Should asylum seekers be redistributed across EU countries on the basis of a quota system?" is a little problematic. I'm against a quota system because I want open borders and I'm for refugee settlement, not because I'm against refugee settlement. So I answered neutral on that question.

It's just matching your questions to MEP votes, so this is fine, you will match to the MEPs who agree with you on this reasoning as well as the ones who don't.

[Karpatsky]

An interesting site. As usual, I don't really fit anywhere.

Greens/EFA 71.33%
S&D 69.33%
ALDE 68%
GUE-NGL 64%
EPP 52%
ECR 32%
EFDD 26%
ENF 25.93%

Ciudadanos – Partido de la Ciudadanía (Spain) 81.08%
Lehet Más A Politika (Hungary) 78.79%
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (Lithuania) 78.79%
Panhellenic Socialist Movement - Olive Tree (Greece) 78.79%
Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Spain) 76.09%
The River (Greece) 75%
Vihreä liitto (Finland) 74.81%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (Spain) 74.31%
Ecologistes Confédérés pour l'Organisation de Luttes Originales (Belgium) 74.31%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (Hungary) 74.15%

Time for me to start advocating for Basque independence, I guess.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Greens/EFA: 77.22%

S&D: 73.89%

GUE-NGL: 72.78%

ALDE/ADLE: 51.11%

EPP: 34.44%

ENF: 32.12%

EFDD: 31.67%

ECR: 18.89%

As for the parties:
Highest:
Lehet Más A Politika
Hungary
86.16%

Lowest:
Liberal-Conservative Refomists
Germany
10.19%

As for the politicians top 3 are:

[LAKISYLVANIA]

GUE - NGL: 96,67%
Greens / EFA: 94,44%
S&D: 84.44%
ALDE/ADLE: 51.67%
EFDD: 35.56%
EPP: 33.33%
ENF: 25.45%
ECR: 9.44%

Best politicians:
Barbara Spinelli (independent, GUE-NGL, Italy) - 100%
Ernest Urtasun (Catalan Greens) - 100%
Merja Kyllonen (Left Alliance, GUE-NGL, Finland) - 100%

Highest political parties:
Left Alliance (Finland - GUE/NGL) - 100%
EH Bildu (Spain/Basque - GUE/NGL) - 100%
Initiative for Catalonia Greens (Spain/Catalonia - Greens/EFA) - 100%
Latvian Russian Union (Latvia - Greens/EFA) - 97.78%
Podemos (Spain - GUE/NGL) - 97.66%

Voted Greens/EFA in 2014, will vote GUE-NGL in 2019.