European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Mike88]

17 parties/coalitions will be on the ballot in Portugal. The Constitutional Court has sorted out the way they will appear on ballot papers on May 26th. The order is the following:

PCTP/MRPP - Portuguese Workers' Communist Party , Far-left/Maoism, main candidate: Luís Júdice
PDR - Democratic Republican Party, Centrist, ALDE, main candidate: Marinho e Pinto
PAN - People–Animals–Nature , Center-left, EGP, main candidate: Francisco Guerreiro
PS -Socialist Party, Center-left, PES, main candidate: Pedro Marques
A - Alliance, Center-right, main candidate: Paulo Sande
PNR - National Renovator Party, Far-right, AENM, main candidate: João Patrocínio
NC - We, the Citizens, Center to Center-right, main candidate: Paulo de Morais
PTP - Portuguese Labour Party, Center-left, main candidate: Elsa Mata
PPD/PSD - Social Democratic Party, center-right, EPP, main candidate: Paulo Rangel
BE - Left Bloc, Left-wing, EUL/NGL, main candidate: Marisa Matias
IL - Liberal Initiative, Center/Liberalism, ALDE, main candidate: Ricardo Arroja
MAS - Socialist Alternative Movement, Far-left, main candidate: Vasco Santos
CDS-PP - CDS-People's Party, center-right, EPP, main candidate: Nuno Melo
PURP - United Party of Retirees and Pensioners, Big tent/Pensioners rights, main candidate: Fernando Loureiro
BASTA! - ENOUGH! coalition (PPM/PPV-CDC), Right-wing, ECPM, main candidate: André Ventura
LIVRE - Free, Center-left to Left-wing, Diem25/EGP, main candidate: Rui Tavares
CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition (PCP/PEV), Left-wing, EUL/NGL, main candidate: João Ferreira

[Mike88]

My bad. When all countries must introduce list od candidates?

I'm not quite sure, but i believe it's different in each country. For example, the deadline in Portugal was April 15, while in Austria, following Tender's posts, the deadline was April 13, i assume.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Campaign budget for Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition is creating some suspicions:

Parties have sent to the Constitutional Court their campaign budget estimates: what they will spend, and what they project to receive in donations and public money. The PS will spend 1,2 million euros, followed by the 890,000 euros of the PSD. CDU will spend 850,000 euros, BE 576,000 euros, CDS 312,000 euros. PAN 78,000 euros and the Alliance 350,000 euros. But, it's André Ventura's ENOUGH! coalition that is drawing attentions. His coalition expects to spend 500,000 euros, in which 400,000 euros will be donations.

The media started to suggest that it could be outside money, like from Steve Bannon. But, Ventura denies any foreign donations, and says he believes in the tide his movement is creating and that he will get the money.

That's not a lot. Here, even the small parties are spending 500.000 € for the campaign and the big parties ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ are allowed to spend up to 7 million € each.

Anyway, the Interior Ministry will announce the qualified parties today after having checked signatures and candidacies for validity. Then the ballots will be printed and they will be sent to voters starting next week.

The question is about how can a coalition by two minor parties, that together never polled above 1%, say it will spend half a million euros, in which 80% are donations. That's a huge amount for such minor parties, even though it has a lot of media coverage. It raises some questions.

[Mike88]

Portugal: New polls.

Aximage poll for Correio da Manhã/Jornal de Negócios:

Vote share %:

31.7% PS (-1.9), 8/9 seats
29.0% PSD (-2.1), 7/8
  8.4% CDU (-1.0), 2
  8.3% BE (+0.3), 2
  7.7% CDS (+0.9), 1/2
  1.8% ENOUGH! (new), 0
  1.3% PAN (nc), 0
  1.3% Alliance (nc), 0
  7.0% Others/Invalid
  3.5% Undecided

Poll conducted between 13 and 16 April 2019. Polled 612 voters. MoE of 4.00%

Pitagórica poll for JN/TSF radio:

Vote share %:

30.3% PS, 7/8 seats
28.0% PSD, 7/8
11.3% BE, 2/3
  7.6% CDS, 2
  6.5% CDU, 1
  1.7% PDR, 0
14.6% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 3 and 13 April 2019. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.07%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CDS main candidate Nuno Melo - "Vox isn't a far-right party, it's just a normal rightwing party".

Nuno Melo, CDS main candidate for the EP elections, has made a controversial statement this weekend. In an interview to Lusa agency, Melo said that "Vox isn't a far-right party, it's just a normal rightwing party", that Vox is to PP what the Alliance is to the PSD and that he's open to integrate Vox in the EPP, the same European party the PSD and CDS are part of. He adds that people who say the Vox is far-right, should read its manifesto.

Well, Melo' shoes must be made from chocolate, because he has just put his foot in his mouth...

[Mike88]

As if Vox want to be in the EPP. It's going to be ECR or EAPN.

Exactly. Everything he said makes no sense. And it goes against everything Assunção Cristas is trying to do: being the a moderate alternative to Costa. You can bet that the PSD is gloating right now, and has entered in full Mr Burns mode "Excellent..."

[Mike88]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

[Mike88]

CDS has gone crazy...

https://twitter.com/_CDSPP/status/1122465797216059392

We can not pretend that when Europe is imploding, when migrations are the theme that is most destroying its foundations, alongside with corruption, we'll put the issue aside and not talk about it just because we can be glued to whoever it is. @NunoMeloCDS # aEuropaishere

At the same time, PSD is also isolating CDS: Vox is a "radical-right" party and has no place in EPP.

Wait, I thought CDS was trying to appear moderate? What happened to that?

I've certainly never thought about CDS as a right wing populist party like say Vox is (or AfD, or Lega, etc).

Is trying to become such a party a dead end and counter-productive in Portugal? (leading to results similar to our PP yesterday) Or is there a real opening for a right wing populist party there?

No one knows what has gotten to Melo's head. Cristas always wanted to portrait herself, and CDS, as a moderate alternative to Costa. Melo, on the other hand, was never a moderate, but still, his remarks make no sense. Why is he doing this? Well, polling hasn't been brilliant for CDS, there's no surge for them and they are seeing the PSD being successful in gathering the vast majority of conservative/center-right votes, plus protest votes, against the PS. In fact, recent polling show PS and PSD neck and neck, with a strong possibility of the PSD defeating the PS, and if this costs 20-30% of the CDS' current 7-8% polling to go to the PSD, PSD will most likely surge ahead of the PS.

Past polling in Portugal, showed that when PSD and CDS were very negative and sometimes radical, during Passos Coelho leadership f.e., they plummet in the polls. This move from CDS will not help them at all, as they are being attacked by all sides, left, right, media, social media. There's another right-wing coalition on the ballot, BASTA! (ENOUGH!) headed by André Ventura. In the last poll, they gain almost 2%, ahead of PAN and the Alliance. It's still to be seen how much electoral strength he will have.

[Mike88]

Portugal: 1st debate between the main parties will happen tonight on SIC TV. Invited to the debate are the PS, PSD, CDU, CDS, BE and PDR main candidates.

We'll see if Europe is even talked about...

[Mike88]

Portugal: 1st debate between the main parties will happen tonight on SIC TV. Invited to the debate are the PS, PSD, CDU, CDS, BE and PDR main candidates.

We'll see if Europe is even talked about...

The debate just finished.


Candidates in SIC TV studios. From left to right: Marinho e Pinto (PDR); João Ferreira (CDU); Pedro Marques (PS); Paulo Rangel (PSD); Marisa Matias (BE); Nuno Melo (CDS). Picture from Diário de Notícias

Europe was talked about, but, not so much, in my view. Pundits say the debate didn't had a clear winner, Pedro Marques, PS, gained a bit of strength as the debate went on, but he started in a very low bar; Paulo Rangel, PSD, was quite moderate but didn't exceed expectations; Nuno Melo, CDS, was quite energetic, bringing photos of José Sócrates hugging António Costa and exceeded expections, but, it reamis to see if this gains votes for CDS; Marisa Matias, BE, was also moderate and had a good performance; Marinho e Pinto, PDR, exceeded expectations as he was also very energetic, we'll see if that translates into votes; João Ferreira, CDU, was quite low profile. although it was clear the tension between him and Marisa Matias.


One of the highlights of debate: Nuno Melo (CDS) showing a picture of Sócrates and Costa. Picture from Observador newspaper.

Other topics talked about were the 7% cut of EU funds to Portugal, with a strong exchange of words between PS and PSD; the situation in Venezuela, with a war of words between PS and PSD/CDS about José Sócrates; Brexit, in which the PSD proposed an alliance with the Atlantic countries; The far-right increase in Europe, with the PS accusing the right of normalizing it and PSD saying that PES isn't without faults, Malta and Romenia were an example.

[Mike88]

What is the differences between BE and CDU?

In essence, BE is a more radical left-wing party, while CDU is more moderate and institutionalized, the fact the CDU, or PCP, always had a strong local government record, unlike BE which has zero local governments, weighs a lot too. The tension between both is mainly because they target, essentially, the same electorate, although BE gains more younger voters, while CDU is very popular among elders. To add also that BE continues to challenge CDU' dominance in the left-wing area, which is something the Communists can't stand. In terms of policy, BE is much more radical than PCP/CDU. BE is against private managements of hospitals, more taxes to the wealthy, liberalization of social issues, etc, while CDU, although agreeing in basically the same things as BE, is more moderate as they tolerate privates in the NHS, and in terms of social policies they sometimes have a bit conservative positions.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Eurosondagem poll.

Vote share %:

34.0% PS, 9/10 seats
27.1% PSD, 7/8
  8.1% CDU, 2
  7.1% CDS, 1/2
  7.1% BE, 1/2
  3.3% PAN, 0/1
  3.3% Alliance, 0/1
10.0% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 28 April and 2 May 2019. Polled 2,010 voters. MoE of 2.19%.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1127349819972968448

Well... that makes sense.

[Mike88]

BASTA! coalition leader, André Ventura, put his place in the hands of his coalition partners after he skipped a debate on RTP in order to be discussing football in another channel:

André Ventura has asked the parties that make up his BASTA! coalition, if they still have confidence in him after many supporters and fundraisers were piss off by his decision to skip a debate on RTP about the election in order to be on CMTV discussing football. Nonetheless, it seems that all parties and movements will vote in favour of Ventura's continuity as leader of the coalition.

Also Pedro Marques, PS main candidate, has become viral in the last few days on social media for putting himself in weird and embarrassing situations:

Here, he's talking to some children in Guarda city...
https://twitter.com/OBSEleicoes/status/1127963350367985666?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

...and here, he's repeating the same soundbite 4 times in a row. Even António Costa is seen a bit uncomfortable.
https://twitter.com/AntNLeite62/status/1127315217766076416

[Mike88]

Portugal' official election web page for the EP election is already online:

https://www.europeias2019.mai.gov.pt/

The page has all 21+substitutes candidates for all 17 parties running in the elections. Plus, it will show turnout rates and live results on election day.

It has also a sample ballot that will be given to voters on election day:


Image from SIC Notícias.

[Mike88]

Patriarchate of Lisbon enters in the EP election campaign by sharing on social media a publication that calls for voting in CDS, Basta! and NC:


The table shared by the Church. Picture from Observador newspaper.

The Patriarchate of Lisbon, the highest ranking Catholic Church institution in Portugal, entered in the EP election campaign, today, by sharing a table on the parties positions on abortion, euthanasia, prostitution, etc. By the info in the table, the Church advised the vote in CDS, Basta! or NC, while they refuse any support to PS, CDU and PAN. The post created huge backlash on social media, and two hours later, the Patriarchate deleted the post, saying it was a mistake.

Party leaders and candidates accept the excuse of the Patriarchate, and the majority are downplaying the issue, while Basta! candidate André Ventura said it was "was God who put me in this fight", and CDS says they cannot respond by the actions of the Patriarchate.

[Mike88]

The Church seems surprisngly open to the CDU. I'm guessing irt prostitution they're aligned on the Swedish/EndDemand model, but why are they so ambivalent on other issues?

Lol they used the German CDU logo
The Portuguese commies don't seem to be very socially progressive?

The Communists are quite "socially conservative" in some issues. Other than abortion, they are against euthanasia, are against gender quotas to put more women in the lists or other top jobs, have wobbly positions in terms of gay marriage/gay adoption and are completely against prostitution, like the table says. PCP has a very rural electorate, don't forget that their biggest stronghold is Alentejo, and they focus more on workers/economic policies than social ones. PCP voters are not very interested in social issues, unlike BE. Although CDU and the Church have some similarities in some positions, their relation isn't a very good one. Going back to the 1974 revolution, the Church and the PCP have always been at odds and there's no sympathy for each side.

Actually that's the real CDU logo. It's quite similar, almost copypast, to the German CDU. Normally, the logos of PCP and PEV are shown bellow:

CDU (PCP/PEV) logo. Image from Rádio Sines

Also, new polling has been released that show how much the "political crisis" of early May has affected the parties in the EP election campaign:

GfK/Metris poll to Expresso/SIC TV: (difference between the poll in the first week of May and the other poll from the second week of May)

Vote share %:

34% PS, 8 seats
28% PSD, 7
  9% CDU, 2
  9% CDS, 2
  8% BE, 2
  3% PAN, 0
  5% Others, 0
  4% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 22 April and 3 May 2019 (before the "political crisis"). Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

Vote share %:

36% PS (+2), 8/9 seats
28% PSD (nc), 6/7
  9% BE (+1), 2
  8% CDU (-1), 1/2
  8% CDS (-1), 1/2
  2% PAN (-1), 0
  5% Others, 0
  4% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 7 May and 12 May 2019 (after the "political crisis"). Polled 802 voters by secret ballot. MoE of 3.5%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Almost 20,000 voters asked for early ballots for the EP elections, an increase of 488% compared with the 2017 local elections:

According to the Interior Minister, 19,562 voters asked to vote early in the EP elections. They will vote this Sunday. This is an increase of 488%, compared with the 2017 local elections, due to the change of the electoral law in which, now, all voters can cast an early ballot and don't need to file an excuse for it. Under the previous law, only voters who couldn't be in Portugal on election day were eligible to cast an early ballot. 

[Mike88]

Actually that's the real CDU logo. It's quite similar, almost copypast, to the German CDU. Normally, the logos of PCP and PEV are shown bellow:

CDU (PCP/PEV) logo. Image from Rádio Sines

The "C" in this logo doesn't look like the "C" here:

For comparison, the German CDU logo

Maybe you're right. Germany's CDU logo seems more flattened than Portugal's CDU, although the difference is just a minor one. Both logos are very similar. No wonder they got confused.

[Mike88]

Portuguese test:

https://www.publico.pt/europeias-2019/interactivo/qual-partido-mais-identifica

My results:

74% Alliance
73% CDS
68% PSD
65% MPT/NC
62% BASTA!
60% PAN
60% CDU
57% PS
56% BE
54% PDR
54% PCTP
51% Livre

[Mike88]

Portugal - Long lines to vote early in Lisbon and Porto.

https://twitter.com/RebeloNuno/status/1130152163181772800

Early voting in the Lisbon' City Hall. 10 access rows, alphabetical order.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1:

Vote share %:

33% PS, 8/9 seats
23% PSD, 5/6
  9% BE, 2
  8% CDU, 2
  8% CDS, 2
  3% PAN, 0/1
  3% Alliance, 0/1
  6% Others, 0
  7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: CESOP-UCP poll for RTP1:

Vote share %:

33% PS, 8/9 seats
23% PSD, 5/6
  9% BE, 2
  8% CDU, 2
  8% CDS, 2
  3% PAN, 0/1
  3% Alliance, 0/1
  6% Others, 0
  7% Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 16 and 19 May 2019. Polled 1,882 voters. MoE of 2.3%.

That crazy country where the 1990s - or really 1970s - party system lives on.

Yeah, our political system is proving to be remarkably stable. To some extent, we, Portuguese, rather prefer the bad we already know than the good unknown.

Also, this poll has some weird crosstabs: https://www.publico.pt/2019/05/20/infografia/ps-lidera-frentes-317

- 68% say they will definitely vote/likely to vote on May 26 (turnout was 33.7% in 2014...)
- Women vote PS by more than 12%, 23% to PSD' 11%;
- Men vote also PS, but, by a much smaller scale, 21% to PSD' 14%;
- 18-24 year old's vote 16% in the PS and 11% in the PSD
- 25-34 year old's vote 17% PS, 12% BE and 6% PSD... What?!?
- The more educated you are, the less likely you are to vote PS: Voters without a high school degree vote 28% in PS and 11% in the PSD, while voters with a college degree vote 20% in the PS and 14% in the PSD;

Curious to see if the following polling confirms this trends for the PSD, and also the PS.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Some divisions in the PS about a future PES+ALDE alliance in the EP.

António Costa's recent dinner with Emmanuel Macron and his "wink" to the liberals in the EP parliament, is creating some discomfort in some parts of the PS. Pedro Nuno Santos, minister of infrastructures and one of the possible successors of Costa as PS leader, says that Liberals and Socialists should never aligned and they should always be in separate sides. A statement that contradicts what Costa said alongside Macron, i which he said that the Socialists should "create a big alliance between democrats and progressives".