With the current votes (31 votes), the seat projection would be this:
93 PS
56 CDS
39 PSD
34 BE
5 CDU
2 PPV/CDC
1 JPP
132 PS-BE-CDU Absolute Majority
97 CDS-PSD-PPV/CDC
1 JPP
Is the difference here based on geographic concentration of the parties?
A bit, yes. I use this site to project seats:
http://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.htmlCDU has 5 seats with 3.1% because they are quite strong in Lisbon, Setúbal and Beja; PPV/CDC, i use the PAN item to project PPV/CDC seats, is a small party and those parties only found big support in Lisbon or Porto; JPP is only strong in Madeira, like i said in a post earlier, thus just 1 seat.