RI: GOP Leaders Supporting Chafee

[Moooooo]

From Roll Call:

Now that Cranston, R.I., Mayor Stephen Laffey has chosen to buck his party and challenge Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.) in the GOP primary next year, Chafee's colleagues are quickly rallying behind him.

While Chafee has not always been a reliable vote for his leaders, the Senate's two top Republicans reiterated their support last week.

Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who appeared in Rhode Island on Chafee's behalf in February, huddled with him on the Senate floor Thursday night, shortly after Laffey declared his candidacy.

"Not only am I, but our entire [GOP] Conference is committed to Linc's re-election," McConnell said in an interview. "We are going to help him in every way. We have a broad-based party and we are proud of our Northeastern moderates. He is an important part of our team."

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) echoed McConnell's pledge of loyalty.

"I have told Linc I will be supporting him," Frist said in an interview. "I haven't seen the primary challenger to evaluate everything, but I told Linc I would be happy to help him out in any way I can."

And some interesting notes on the primary:

Noting that about only 10 percent of registered voters in the state are Republicans, Chafee conceded that, "Republican primaries are dangerous in Rhode Island."

As one of the leading centrist Republicans in the Senate, Chafee said part of his strategy would be to try to convince Democrats and politically unaffiliated voters to vote for him in the September GOP primary.

Rhode Island election law allows unaffiliated voters to participate in the primary - they simply must choose one party's ballot or the other's. Affiliated voters must either change their party registration or declare themselves independents by June if they wish to participate in the other party's primary.

"The challenge is getting the unaffiliated," Chafee said. "And if you have supporters who are Democrats, make sure they disaffiliate 60 days prior to the primary.

"That takes some planning. I certainly will work at finding my supporters in the unaffiliated ranks and making sure they turn out" for the primary, Chafee said.

[MissCatholic]

GOP needs Chafee to stay in as the republicans have ahardly any pick-up opportunites. The dems just need to put pressure on MO,PA and RI, they can't all win their re-election.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Based on past GOP primaries, this race will be won by the first candidate to get 15,000 votes.   So this could be the one of the most local-style campaigns to ever decide a Senate seat.   And a campaign that will be very difficult to poll.

[M]

GOP needs Chafee to stay in as the republicans have ahardly any pick-up opportunites. The dems just need to put pressure on MO,PA and RI, they can't all win their re-election.

Minnesota and North Dakota (if Hoeven jumps in) are both likely GOP pickups. They also have fighting chances in Maryland, in Florida (if Harris can be knocked aside by a good candidate like General Franks), and perhaps West Virginia.

However, I agree that Santorum and Chafee are in trouble- one for disagreeing with his state, the other for disagreeing with his party. Missouri is only as likely a dem pickup as, say, Maryland for the GOP.

[AuH2O]

Santorum is in trouble but not nearly so much as commonly thought (i.e. a tough race but he isn't done).

Laffey certainly reduces the odds that seat stays GOP. However, Chafee is still likely to win the primary, and if he loses it probably means Laffey is viable, because unaffiliated voters can participate in the GOP primary (and the Democrats have no Senate race in RI).

[WalterMitty]

question:  how in the world could mitch mcconnell help chafee in the ri?

[Ben.]

Its very like PA all over again.

Like Toomey Laffey can probably count on about 40% of the state's republicans, beyond that it becomes harder but Chafee is much more liberal than Spectre.

In the end I’d expect Chaffee to survive bloodied but still in one piece a win by a clear but not huge margin next fall.

 

[MissCatholic]

GOP needs Chafee to stay in as the republicans have ahardly any pick-up opportunites. The dems just need to put pressure on MO,PA and RI, they can't all win their re-election.

Minnesota and North Dakota (if Hoeven jumps in) are both likely GOP pickups. They also have fighting chances in Maryland, in Florida (if Harris can be knocked aside by a good candidate like General Franks), and perhaps West Virginia.

However, I agree that Santorum and Chafee are in trouble- one for disagreeing with his state, the other for disagreeing with his party. Missouri is only as likely a dem pickup as, say, Maryland for the GOP.

i dont think we have a chance in winning missouri. we just cant break 47%

[Ben.]

i dont think we have a chance in winning missouri. we just cant break 47%

I think there's a 50/50 chance of us picking up the Senate seat in MO, if things are as bad for the Administration and GOP as they may well be... nothing more than that.

In terms of its lean at a presidential election, Missouri leans to the GOP as much as PA normally leans to the Dems, making it very competitive in a 50/50 year such as 2000, in an election with a strong Democrat such as Bayh or potentially Warner, then Missouri will be very competitive once again, in a race with Kerry or Hillary it won’t be the same is true in reverse of PA at the Presidential level.     

[Moooooo]

The Associated Press:

A national Republican committee, seeking to undercut Stephen Laffey’s Senate bid, has circulated a memo that derides the candidate for raising taxes as mayor of Cranston…

A spokesman for the [National Republican Senatorial] committee, Brian Nick, described the memo as a “factual document” and said the committee strongly believes Chafee is the “best Republican to have on the ticket to ensure this seat stays in Republican hands.”.

Nick said the committee chairman, Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, had tried to persuade Laffey not to challenge Chafee. He said the move came out of concern that Laffey might defeat Chafee in the primary but then lose to a Democrat in the general election.